TWG CVIII: Drekk's Revenge

[thesunfan]

Funny's pretty clear in my eyes after rereading the thread, and I wouldn't clear Middie, but he's certainly not the top of my list at the moment.

[thesunfan]

a side note probably best for the post game but fuck that; anyone can have a good game. Some day, Afro is going to have an absolutely fantastic wolf game that's gonna turn heads. Some day, it may even be possible for you to have a seer game where you totally don't fuck everything up. Anyone can have a good game; no one's incapable of success in this game. Hell, even Lames May, who has one of, if not the worst W-L ratio in the history of this game for people that have played at least 10 games has a Co-MVP award for his rather noteworthy performance as Coroner in one game. Even fucking vashthestampede (I know I'm bringing up a name that like 2 of you at most will recognize) managed to have a rather nice wolf game. If there's anything I've learned from reading TWG histories, its that anyone can have a good game, and while you can still say "X person's human game is rather poor compared to their wolf game," that certainly doesn't mean that X cannot have a good human game. I made this mistake when I was tunneling Afro earlier this game; and I've made it plenty of times before, as well.

[Tokzic]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

XelNya is probably a human
sunfan is probably a human
Afro is probably a human

wat

these people are way closer to the wolf side of the spectrum than the human side

[dAnceguy117]

XelNya is probably a human based on day 2 interaction
sunfan is probably a human based on day 1 voting patterns
Afro is probably a human based on day 2 voting patterns

I can explain my thinking further but these seem pretty clear to me.

[thesunfan]

Afro is next to lock clear for becoming a born-again Afro and for killing Xiz when he easily could've pushed him over. Middie I would agree with not being clear. LolI'mclearcuzIknowI'mhuman. Being cleared over Day One stuff is something I can't really comment on; I had the person I was subbing in for as a veeeeery weak wolf lean going into the game (albeit my reasoning is fairly bad in hindsight, I wasn't actually playing the game so I wasn't very invested in it as well as the fact that I didn't really have too much to go off of with her), so I don't fully understand Dance's reasoning, but w/e.

[thesunfan]

I mean Afro is clear for NOT killing Xiz when he easily could've advocated to kill him. typing and me... I need some Mavis Bacon or some shit idk. I've made so many goddamn typographical errors this game...

[thesunfan]

upon further analysis, it appears her name is Mavis Beacon. Not Bacon. fml.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

Bird Jesus better be a human or this game might as well be over

Actually, I would wager that if Manti really is a wolf, he's probably really the last one. And it wouldn't be the first time it happened. I played a game a long time ago where tps faked blue as a wolf. He led the alliance and helped us down all of the wolves... and then eventually got lynched himself.



If Manti IS a wolf though, he's playing a REALLY weird game. His behavior day 1 and 2 makes a lot of sense as a red faking, but his insane gambits later don't make a lot of sense. It takes too much effort to do wacky bullshit like that when nothing of value would be gained from any of it. If he were red, he'd probably just lay back and allow us to slow murder ourselves, claiming to be continuously roleblocked the whole time.

Originally Posted by sunfan

Even fucking vashthestampede (I know I'm bringing up a name that like 2 of you at most will recognize) managed to have a rather nice wolf game.

The fuck? Did you used to use a different name? I don't recall you being around LIKE TEN YEARS AGO when Vash was around.

[DarkManticoreX2]

sunfan is blahblah18

[Funnygurl555]

Why are you people clearing XelNya... Eh...
But I'm willing to forget about him for a while because my accuracy's lolbad, and I'll waste time tunneling him.

Afrobean and sunfan helped lead the wagon against Halogen, so they're cleared for me (unless you guys are crazy enough to throw your teammate under the bus as early as you did in a game with no cardflips)

I have to re-look at everyone else except Manti. That leaves me with Tokzic, XelNya, mellonxcollie, and dAnceguy as suspects. I'll probably put more emphasis on the three people on the list that aren't XelNya for the time being simply because I haven't paid attention to them much.

[thesunfan]

I certainly spell like him, and I can only hope to someday be so good of a wolf that I will actually fool my fellow wolves into thinking that I'm not actually even myself, eh Afro?

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by DarkManticoreX2

sunfan is blahblah18

Bullshit! I do not believe it!

[thesunfan]

I have no idea how to play poker.

[Tokzic]

i mean

i know it's possible for manti to be wolf

but that would mean that the seer died on day 1 (1/13 chance), and the psychic died somewhere between night 2 and night 4 (1/11 + 1/9 + 1/7, assuming that the humans we lynched were smart enough to claim psychic if they actually had it)

and then you have to factor in the chance that manti would decide to fake a blue role in the first place, specifically the one that died n1

multiply all that shit together

i know that it's possible, but we're looking at fucking lotto chances here

[Tokzic]

also i remember vashthestampede lmao

hell we played maple story together

i miss that guy

[dAnceguy117]

vashthestampede > vashthegunman

[Tokzic]

i'm surprised sunfan is blah too wtf

how are those fat stacks of poker winnings treating you

[DarkManticoreX2]

Anyway, after reading through the thread, here's where I stand on players in order of humanity. I decided to show you guys my work so you can see my thought process.

Lock clear:

Tokzic:

YMIA was a wolf, therefore this post exchange D2 does not make a lot of sense as a wolf/wolf combination:

Originally Posted by Tokzic

you have yet to state any actual suspicions besides on xelnya day 1, which you took back after people actually started voting him

This is an exchange that could have got YMIA lynched if the tide turned the wrong way. There was little momentum toward a lynch at that point in time, and this could easily pulled support. A W/W pair does not typically bus this hard.

Danceguy:

Danceguy is cleared through the D2 lynch. James was the roleblocker wolf, and already had 2 votes when Afro was being lynched. Afro pushed James into the KITB and danceguy broke it before I sealed the voting. I don't see a situation where the MW would willingly axe the roleblocker wolf, especially since james wasn't guaranteed to die.


Soft clear



Xelnya:

I'm aware it was mentioned the Middie would do whatever comes into his mind and feels right at the time, but still, it's pretty cold to call your own teammate out on his reads like this:

Originally Posted by James May

You're complaining that I'm listing you as a town? Seems silly no?

I see that exchange and i go "I really don't see the MW bussing the RB wolf like this the second the RB wolf enters the game"


Questionable characters


Sunfan:

Sunfan's dedication to this game and desire to play are obvious. He has good plays, but there are detractors that can be placed on them.

-Initial vote on Halogen/James D2, but backed off when James/halogen started getting heat, and didn't hope back on the wagon untill AFTER halogen was lynched.

-Supported Xiz (over Afro) D2, but did so in a way that was almost unquestioning. Only a wolf should have that strong of a human read on someone.

In short Sunfan has A+ activity, but there's nothing I can use to soft clear him, so he goes lower on the list.


Afrobean:
Afrobean might be a suprise down here, because a lot of people would clear him the same way danceguy was cleared. However, If Afro was the MW, there is a possibility Afro would willingly throw a wolf teammate under the bus to save his skin. It is unlikely, (because once again james was the RB wolf) however, Afro is a selfish player and I could see this happening.

Also YIMA's D2 read list posted Afro as the most wolfy person to him. YIMA then proceeded to vote Xiz. I'm pretty sure YIMA's wolf game is better then that, but it's an oddity that I'm not sure I can place right now.

Funnygurl555:
Funnygurl's reads have been bad the entire game. I can see the logic she's using in her post by post construction, but her reads are just either horrendously bad (sorry) or manufactured, and not meshing well.

Look at her vote history:
D1: T-force-manti-t-force
D2: Xelnya-Clasko-Xiz-clasko-xelnya
---Humans points for ignoring the afro-xiz train and sticking to your guns,
---Human points lost for supporting the James train and not voting with it, even if it was to avoid insta.
D3:Xelnya
D4: YMIA, but this is pretty much forced by my seering.

I dunno after writing this out I really feel she's more of a lost human then a wolf. Funnygurl's a mixed bag of weird.


DREKK


MelonXcollie:

Melon, you don't have a single thing supporting your humanity this game

- Pushed a lynch on me based on misguided information, based the excuse on real life
- No interaction with the other wolves in this game, minus a harmless vote on YMIA for afking
- Completely missing from the D2 lynch debacle with james/xiz/afro
- Declared intent to vote james when the decision was basically already made, and never voted.
- Stayed out of the thread entirely during the Guest fake seering.
- This quote here is completely something a MW would want during the N4 seeing where I hit YMIA.

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Go ahead and seer me if you want to! Afrobean is right in saying that confirming a green makes sense, and if Manti is still suspicious of me for whatever reason, clearing me will allow us to go after actual wolves

Shit I just agreed with Afro

Originally Posted by Afrobean

The only player in this situation who would REALLY be OK with being seered is the master wolf.

- Neither YIMA or James had a "read" on you. It's kinda hard to manufacture a read on a wolf buddy, not knowing what might get them lynched.

[DarkManticoreX2]

Originally Posted by Tokzic

i mean

i know it's possible for manti to be wolf

but that would mean that the seer died on day 1 (1/13 chance), and the psychic died somewhere between night 2 and night 4 (1/11 + 1/9 + 1/7, assuming that the humans we lynched were smart enough to claim psychic if they actually had it)

and then you have to factor in the chance that manti would decide to fake a blue role in the first place, specifically the one that died n1

multiply all that shit together

i know that it's possible, but we're looking at fucking lotto chances here

T-force was more then likely a blue, and probably the psychic. I figured that was pretty obvious by now.

[DarkManticoreX2]

Originally Posted by Tokzic

i'm surprised sunfan is blah too wtf

how are those fat stacks of poker winnings treating you

I lied again.