TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

[dAnceguy117]

(time-out, totally game unrelated, very sorry to hear that V. and Svaz that story sounded super creepy but at least the cab dude didn't do anything more than what he did.)


anyway. seriously we have 24 hours, we shouldn't rush into a lynch. I'm not sure if I care THAT much about what manti/tps have to say, but at the very least we have more time to do homework.

[dAnceguy117]

scenario.

what if we lynch Manti and he flips town? do we lynch TPS? I feel like something is wrong here

[j-rodd123]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

(time-out, totally game unrelated, very sorry to hear that V. .

oh and seconded but V is doing great now I think???

I really don't get why TPS and manti aren't posting though it's obv wolf play or sabotaging villa, which is why I can give them a little bit more time. At least if they cant save themselves they can dig a grave and help us make the right choice

[Crazyjayde]

Whoa there's a lot going on here. I still want to lynch Manti soooooo bad based on my earlier stance. I truly felt like he was about to pressure people but he seems to have jumped ship. Blasé would be a good way to define him. Now can we not end this phase right now? This day is a major opportunity in gaining input out of everyone still alive before exposing our most active players to the risk of being silenced.

And lol V -> Jayne? I've never heard that one before. Cute. Get well soon though.

[j-rodd123]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

scenario.

what if we lynch Manti and he flips town? do we lynch TPS? I feel like something is wrong here

yea like if manti/tps are the only options of course it is bad, we kind of have to resolve some stuff, if manti/tps are somehow both town then it's a wolf win unless they can do something

[Vendetta21]

It wasn't meant to instill pity it was meant to make the point that my level of engagement is different I used to obsess over TWG literally with every spare thought I stopped doing that but still tried to live up to my reputation and found I cannot.

Really I think the best move is to get everyone to weigh in on TPS and Manti at this juncture since they are the current focal points.

[dAnceguy117]

ok I already did mine for TPS. here's where I'm at with Manti. you're not gonna like it though lol.

Manti - null

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

Because the continued laziness from manti is not indicative of human manti.

I've never played a game with wolf Manti, but from what I understand, he's not lazy there either. I was throwing together some of the tags for the history of TWG thread here, and I read a bunch of postgames from like 2007. he consistently ragged on reds for not saying much, even when they won.

imo this 2-post-per-day manti isn't town Manti nor wolf Manti. he's just not here.

his wolf reads in #707 look like wolf reads I would expect from Manti based on what we had seen up to that point. to me, that means he put in at least a modest amount of effort there. I just don't know if that effort went toward building the reads or faking them.

[Crazyjayde]

Analysis both cases this phase, pick one of the two then observe the rest of the pack and lynch from there? Even if Manti flips red this phase, I definitely won't lynch TPS right ahead if he doesn't deliver anything, it's up to you guys to see. An affiliation between the two seems too, you know, obvious to be called right away, but what do I know.

Manti has played weak this game, perhaps with a slight intention in mind, but it's definitely gone now. I would suppose he bailed right when we were doing the connections he wanted us to have (he did say at one point he was refraining himself from posting because he was interested in the ongoing conversation about him), and his play by that point indicated a player with self-interest priorities. Definitely didn't see him as someone wanting to interact with anyone, and I thought we was about to pressure people but it all went poof.

[dAnceguy117]

now, the pizza guy kill for night 3 (aside from being just straight up neutral) appears to be indicative of a wolf team not paying much attention. keyword: appears. is it what it seems, or is it a setup?

imo we throw out the nightkill and focus on the day actions.

[j-rodd123]

ugh why am I the WOAT and decided to lynch fiction instead of manti day 2, soooo bad and we wouldn't be in this mess.

I am keeping my vote on tps though (although his meta would tell me differently which is a shame)

[dAnceguy117]

"if it seems too good to be true, it probably is."

I'll look through the d2, d3, d4 votes again but just from what I think I remember, almost every player in the game has voted and/or stated suspicion of TPS and Manti. does that make sense? do we think there's 1 wolf bussing 3 other wolves and trying to carry the torch?


(holy shit BDN is lurking. hi BDN)

[dAnceguy117]

I'm gonna say if one of them is a wolf then maybe Svaz is too. off the grid.

[dAnceguy117]

ok maybe I've said too much. the sad thing here is that neither TPS nor Manti can duke it out with their detractors because they're rather absent.

what do yall think? I know several of you have spoken with your votes already but can you explain why you're so convinced?

[dAnceguy117]

here are a few Manti posts from day 1.
#306
#308
#316

to be clear, these posts absolutely do not clear/condemn anyone. but I think they were forgotten in the shuffle of replacements and the terribad day 1.

Manti voted for YMIA/TPS and also suggested Netjet/Raeko. we know Manti. he thought everyone else would at least consider those picks. does a Manti/TPS duo make sense?

[Charu]

I was targeting TPS for two days, but then I switched over to Dark since Kraut made acknowledgements to Fiction with his explanation of why Dark was rather on the wolfy side, but made no hesitation to remove his vote to Fiction after he agreed.

In the grand scheme of things, yeah, Kraut and his wolf buddies could've very well planned that in advance to cast suspicions on Dark, but this was before Kraut got presumably blocked, or so what has been deduced from you folks.

The straight forward answer without the doubt is that Dark HAS to be a wolf given these circumstances. With the doubt, it could very well be a setup that was in the making since day two.

[James May]

Perhaps I'll start off. I just view each player with a blank slate, as each game allows each player to give off a different psyche. There's truly no consistent psyche that allows us to mold into a specific persona in this game. Manti and TPS both have given off a similar aloof vibe that Kraut had emanated in which it led him to his demise. TPS on the other hand, has just been...absent, a particular example of aloofness, and just like Manti, has given no validity in his game. If we examine all of this, this would pin Svaz as well but like Manti and TPS, nothing much goes on in her game. So in other words, we should examine the inactive closely because this is ridiculous...

Anyhow, I would go further into details but I'm using an iPhone and phones are rubbish to make long posts >_>...

[dAnceguy117]

James I understand what you're saying but you pretty much just named the three inactives. maybe it's right, who knows, I don't. but is it right BECAUSE they're inactive? inactivity -> wolf?

[James May]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

James I understand what you're saying but you pretty much just named the three inactives. maybe it's right, who knows, I don't. but is it right BECAUSE they're inactive? inactivity -> wolf?

The thing is though inactivity can be on either sides but only on either sides, not simultaneously. You rarely see both sides being inactive.

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by James May

The thing is though inactivity can be on either sides but only on either sides, not simultaneously. You rarely see both sides being inactive.

disagreed. any one player can become inactive at any time. probably due to other obligations, maybe due to boredom, and I would say rarely on purpose in an attempt to win. most people sign up for a game to actually play the game.

[dAnceguy117]

I'm not sure if I really hate a Manti or a TPS lynch here. gonna sleep on it. but @townies, if we lynch one of those two and he flips town, then the wolves are 1 mislynch away from a win. DO NOT just keep your list intact and move one spot down the line and lynch your next "obvious" target. DO NOT do that.