TWG CXXXIV: C9++: The Last of You GAME THREAD

[choof]

okay, I'll hold off
when is eod and can we afford a mislynch

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Red Blaster what are your thoughts on the setup being DMVCTTT? Plausible?

Tbh I don't really analyze setups to know what any of that gibberish stands for.
But mashi said the wolf roll was either TTT or T so it's obviously possible.

[j-rodd123]

Votes from post 718 to post 999
Night in 10:03:20
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• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 2 -- Charles Claythorne -- _Zenith_ (57), DaBackpack (8)
• 1 -- roundbox -- Red Blaster (44)
• 1 -- DaBackpack -- MrPopadopalis25 (27)
• 1 -- _Zenith_ -- Charles Claythorne (10)
• 2 -- unvote -- roundbox (66), choof (36)
• 2 -- not voting -- blindreper1179 (26), Nydus (2)

[choof]

blind has a proclivity to be a dork

[choof]

is that vc correct?

[choof]

epiphany
I'm killing round tonight

[Red Blaster]

Hold tf up.
I swear mashi said T was the wolf roll.
Brb finding his post

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by is this a slip thenharles Claythorne

I was just in the middle of doing that! Heh.

So with choof's Serial Killer claim, we know that there's an odd number of T's (T, TTT, TTTTT, and TTTTTTT).

We've had a One-shot Doctor, a One-shot Vigiliant, a normal Human, and a normal Wolf killed. A normal Wolf doesn't tell us anything about the number of T's (each T setup has at least one normal Wolf), but we know that there's at least a D, a V, and an M (due to Nydus being Innocent Child). With Red Blaster's One-shot Cop claim (which I'm willing to believe), that adds a C to the setup.

So right now, we have DVMC, so the Wolf Roll must be either T or TTT. What this implies is that if there are any more Human Specials in the game, Chariplop is confirmed, since the TTT setup doesn't have a Godfather among the Wolves. If not, then he could still potentially be Godfather, but I have a Human lean on him anyway, so...!

So uh..is this a slip then?

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Red Blaster

So uh..is this a slip then?

Not necessarily as he left both possibilities open. I think he is suggesting a TTT setup with his human lean on plop. He also corrected himself immediately afterwards about additional town PRs unconfirming plop.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by choof

epiphany
I'm killing round tonight

Wow.avi

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by choof

epiphany
I'm killing round tonight

Can you explain your thought process at least before shanking me

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Not necessarily as he left both possibilities open. I think he is suggesting a TTT setup with his human lean on plop. He also corrected himself immediately afterwards about additional town PRs unconfirming plop.

He said "wolf roll must be ttt or t"

[Charles Claythorne]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Mashi, my wolf read on you derives from two things. One is a meta read; you participate a hella lot more and you tend to create full page length reads especially when we get out of D0. Two is that the content of your posts doesn't seem all that forced, yet you are definitive with much.

That isn't a meta read. That's being suspicious of me for playing differently from my normal Wolf and Human playing styles. If you notice, the majority of my posts are at like 1-3AM EST when no one else is around and I'm tired. I've just been unexpectedly busy this game. I can't really do much at midnight when there's no one to talk to and I'm out of energy.

I had a discussion with a Player named soah on 2+2 a few weeks ago regarding suspicion lists and he made a compelling case to me about why early suspicion lists could be more harm than good. They're closer to being randomly made Day 1, so that if you base future reads list on them (even if unintentionally), you put a bias in finding Wolves based on those 'random-placement' reads, such that just starting from scratch would be more efficient. I can go into depth about it after the game if you would like.

As of right now, you have a vote on me. While dissecting why I am a wolf in your posts, you flip and flop between discussing the possible auto situation (again, auto wouldn't be reached until next day phase at best if everything goes right), and you started talking about Plop and Red, where as of right now they are both town aligned so you are building a potential case around Red possibly bluffing because Round has also pointed it out. You are more solid as a townie giving your own points while offering more feedback on others and I haven't seen it this game.

Zenith, you are being suspicious of me for talking about an auto-win situation when you've literally been doing that all day yesterday. You're suspicious yourself by your own logic!
And also, as I've repeatedly mentioned over and over, if we have two more Players claim, assuming choof helps us and we believe all the claims, the game is auto-win for us.

It's definitely a possibility for Red Blaster to be false claiming. I don't think it's likely, but after having been completely duped by Players in the jTWG, I'm not about to underestimate anyone. Chariplop was seered Green, but if there are two more letters in this setup, the Green seering doesn't actually mean anything.

Good luck finding any association tells with Blind and I, because Blind and I rarely pair up in games (regardless of alignment).

I wasn't meaning to find any association tells between the two of you. I was speaking about you or blind with other Players.

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

If you're voting zenith then does that mean you disagree with my analysis below? If so, why do you think choof was left alone and unroleblocked?

Can you direct me to the post where choof heavily implied he was vigi'ing Zenith? I skimmed through Day 1 but couldn't find anything, so perhaps I missed it.
Regardless, given that Vendetta21 seems to have taken precedence over the choof wolfing, I'm under the impression that the Wolves were making a risky play in the first place. I wouldn't be surprised if a Player like Manti took charge for a Wolf Team despite the risks from the few games I've seen of him as a Wolf; I particularly remember one where he heavily bussed his Partners as early as Day 0, much to my surprise in Post Game.

[blindreper1179]

Yes plop, I've bussed before. Both intentionally and unintentionally

[Charles Claythorne]

Originally Posted by choof

epiphany
I'm killing round tonight

Why?

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by Charles Claythorne

That isn't a meta read. That's being suspicious of me for playing differently from my normal Wolf and Human playing styles. If you notice, the majority of my posts are at like 1-3AM EST when no one else is around and I'm tired. I've just been unexpectedly busy this game. I can't really do much at midnight when there's no one to talk to and I'm out of energy.

I had a discussion with a Player named soah on 2+2 a few weeks ago regarding suspicion lists and he made a compelling case to me about why early suspicion lists could be more harm than good. They're closer to being randomly made Day 1, so that if you base future reads list on them (even if unintentionally), you put a bias in finding Wolves based on those 'random-placement' reads, such that just starting from scratch would be more efficient. I can go into depth about it after the game if you would like.


Zenith, you are being suspicious of me for talking about an auto-win situation when you've literally been doing that all day yesterday. You're suspicious yourself by your own logic!
And also, as I've repeatedly mentioned over and over, if we have two more Players claim, assuming choof helps us and we believe all the claims, the game is auto-win for us.

It's definitely a possibility for Red Blaster to be false claiming. I don't think it's likely, but after having been completely duped by Players in the jTWG, I'm not about to underestimate anyone. Chariplop was seered Green, but if there are two more letters in this setup, the Green seering doesn't actually mean anything.


I wasn't meaning to find any association tells between the two of you. I was speaking about you or blind with other Players.


Can you direct me to the post where choof heavily implied he was vigi'ing Zenith? I skimmed through Day 1 but couldn't find anything, so perhaps I missed it.
Regardless, given that Vendetta21 seems to have taken precedence over the choof wolfing, I'm under the impression that the Wolves were making a risky play in the first place. I wouldn't be surprised if a Player like Manti took charge for a Wolf Team despite the risks from the few games I've seen of him as a Wolf; I particularly remember one where he heavily bussed his Partners as early as Day 0, much to my surprise in Post Game.

1) You never mention anything relevant to the game information or what has happened thus far. You are only mentioning that you truly aren't putting effort because of real life situations (work, sleep, etc) which no player can be mad about but it is an irrelevant topic in your defense on why you aren't wolf (which hint, you definitely are one).

2) Yet another paragraph irrelevant to our topic. You can easily (as choof has demonstrated in past games) solve the game within your reads in D0 so it is an arguable topic with no real right answer.

3) No. I moved away from you talking about the auto-win situation being scummy to you generally being scummy and you bring up irrelevant topics/defenses to help you along. Yes, I was figuring out setup, NOT AUTO-WIN because no game is truly automatically won as early as D1; and if it is then you hit that severely low chance of actually having it happen.

[blindreper1179]

What I said about Manti though would hardly be a bus if I was his partner. That is literally the only thing I said about him.

[_Zenith_]

I hope DBP spits posts out when he can; see him in thread but he mentioned something about flying earlier and not having the time at the moment to say much but I hope he does by EoD as he is another player in the unclear pool.

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

I hope DBP spits posts out when he can; see him in thread but he mentioned something about flying earlier and not having the time at the moment to say much but I hope he does by EoD as he is another player in the unclear pool.

I mean..if he's flying he's essentially got nothing but time given that most planes offer free wifi and he's basically got nothing else to do other than sleep

[Charles Claythorne]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

1) You never mention anything relevant to the game information or what has happened thus far. You are only mentioning that you truly aren't putting effort because of real life situations (work, sleep, etc) which no player can be mad about but it is an irrelevant topic in your defense on why you aren't wolf (which hint, you definitely are one).

What! You don't think I haven't been giving my opinions and analysing actions in any of my quote posts?
I never said I wasn't putting in any effort and if you're suggesting that I'm not, I'm indignant, considering that I've stayed up to post long past when I should have been in bed. If you think that just because I'm busy and posting a bit less than usual, I'm not putting in any effort, that's false.

2) Yet another paragraph irrelevant to our topic. You can easily (as choof has demonstrated in past games) solve the game within your reads in D0 so it is an arguable topic with no real right answer.

No, game theory is definitely a field of study with very real conclusions. Anecdotal evidence doesn't mean anything conclusive unless it's backed up by a large sample size and statistical study. There's always going to be a few times certain Players are going to be right on the mark Day 0, but that's normal when taking into account variance of accuracy of reads. Based on what soah's told me on 2+2, Day 0 lynches of a Wolf are as good as random, so what does that tell you about Day 0 reads?

3) No. I moved away from you talking about the auto-win situation being scummy to you generally being scummy and you bring up irrelevant topics/defenses to help you along. Yes, I was figuring out setup, NOT AUTO-WIN because no game is truly automatically won as early as D1; and if it is then you hit that severely low chance of actually having it happen.

I mentioned an auto-win situation in maybe 2 or 3 posts until you blew it out of proportion.

Why would you want to figure out the setup when by your own logic, you should be trying to find suspicious people to lynch as Wolves?