Come forth and be confused! - Page 4

Brainmaster07 · 01-10-2004, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flipmaster99

I find the easiest way to think about this question is as follows, the answer being you should switch your choice of doors.

When you pick your first door, you are probably wrong (2/3 chance of being wrong).
The host opens an empty door.
You know that your first guess was probably wrong...
By switching to the other door, your chances of winning are better because your first choice was probably wrong.

Makes sense to me, aperson wins.

VxDx · 01-10-2004, 09:32 PM

Hmmm, ok, you're right.
seriously, I thought about it wrong.

banditcom · 01-10-2004, 09:33 PM

At first you think "oh there's 2 left, so there's 50% chance." No... wrong. Stats doesn't make sense on the surface. You have to look into it and think about it.

EDIT: No prob VxDx.

EDIT 2: By the way, I hate stats...

**aperson** · 01-10-2004, 09:34 PM

Haha Vx, don't worry, a lot of people get drawn out at least 3 times as wrong. It's one of those that just sounds SO DAMN ILLOGICAL when you hear the answer.

Lupin_the_3rd · 01-10-2004, 11:47 PM

i'm still not convinced. you and your friend each purchase a lottery ticket. Your lottery ticket has one number on it. there is only one winner, and one person is guaranteed to win(so don't tell me bs about lottery rules). 1000 people enter into the lottery. You somehow know that the 998 other people have lost. Do you at that point turn to your friend and say i have a better chance than you at winning the lottery? NO THEY ARE EXACTLY THE SAME CHANCE OF WINNING.

please disprove this without using a retarted program

**aperson** · 01-10-2004, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lupin_the_3rd

i'm still not convinced. you and your friend each purchase a lottery ticket. Your lottery ticket has one number on it. there is only one winner, and one person is guaranteed to win(so don't tell me bs about lottery rules). 1000 people enter into the lottery. You somehow know that the 998 other people have lost. Do you at that point turn to your friend and say i have a better chance than you at winning the lottery? NO THEY ARE EXACTLY THE SAME CHANCE OF WINNING.

please disprove this without using a retarted program

I don't need to disprove it.

You know why? It's not the same thing.

Lupin_the_3rd · 01-10-2004, 11:50 PM

so using the lottey theme, please explain what the original problem is, i'm just thinking about it the wrong way

**aperson** · 01-10-2004, 11:56 PM

http://www.crummy.com/features/hall/...ent=100&log=on
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/montybg.html

Owned. Idiot.

**Cenright** · 01-11-2004, 12:07 AM

The Explanation

I have seen where my 50/50 flaw is.

Here people. It IS right. I can give you the concept WITHOUT using the math, so all you conceptual people can see it.

When you choose a door, he chooses a wrong door. If you choose a wrong door, he must choose the OTHER wrong door, because you chose yours, so he can't.

Let's put the prize in door 2.
________________
|_W_| |_P_| |_W_|

If You chose 1, he must choose 3. Swap (To #2) and Win
If You chose 3, he must choose 1. Swap (To #2) and Win
If You chose 2, he can choose either, You swap (to the other wrong one) and lose.

That is where the 2/3 chance is.

QreepyBORIS · 01-11-2004, 12:09 AM

There we go!

Now I get it.

Lupin_the_3rd · 01-11-2004, 12:11 AM

yeah, i was looking at it wrong, and don't call me an idiot if you couldn't even explain the answer well in the first place

**Cenright** · 01-11-2004, 12:11 AM

Aperson saw how to do the math, but I don't think he got the concept behind it. He only knew that it worked.

I could be wrong though, but then why didn't he just explain it like that?

QreepyBORIS · 01-11-2004, 12:13 AM

His explanation was uber ambiguous.

**Cenright** · 01-11-2004, 12:14 AM

He didn't get it.

That is the reason probably. He only knew math. Math doesn't help much if you don't know why it comes out the way it does.

**aperson** · 01-11-2004, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cenright

He didn't get it.

That is the reason probably. He only knew math. Math doesn't help much if you don't know why it comes out the way it does.

Actually that's just a highly simplified version of it. Trust me on this... Look at the 'exhaustive proof.' on page 2... thanks.

**Cenright** · 01-11-2004, 12:25 AM

Exhaustive proof doesn't help if people do get it. (It is just exhausting) You have to start with the basic concept. If you don't, everyone just thinks you just have some screwed up math, because you yourself never answered the question of WHY it wasn't 50/50. You just said that: Oh, he won! or Oh! he lost.

Every idea needs a thesis statement.

Then people don't want to kill you and you don't have to call everyone an idiot. No one wants to fish through 3-4 pages to find 3-4 sentences.

A conlusion works also.

It is 2/3, Because.... (insert a small amout of text that keeps people's attention that still answers WHY)

QreepyBORIS · 01-11-2004, 12:29 AM

Lets stop caring now. Okay?

**Cenright** · 01-11-2004, 12:30 AM

I'm finished. I just wanted to explain why everyone was frustrated with him.

**aperson** · 01-11-2004, 12:42 AM

The point was to frustrate people.

You lose.

banditcom · 01-11-2004, 01:12 AM

I thought he explained it rather well actually. :P

01-10-2004, 09:34 PM	#64
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,431	Haha Vx, don't worry, a lot of people get drawn out at least 3 times as wrong. It's one of those that just sounds SO DAMN ILLOGICAL when you hear the answer. __________________

01-10-2004, 11:56 PM	#68
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,431	http://www.crummy.com/features/hall/...ent=100&log=on http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/montybg.html Owned. Idiot. __________________

01-11-2004, 12:07 AM	#69
Cenright You thought I was a GUY?! Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Beaumont (A town with 25 times fewer people than this site) Age: 39 Posts: 3,139	The Explanation I have seen where my 50/50 flaw is. Here people. It IS right. I can give you the concept WITHOUT using the math, so all you conceptual people can see it. When you choose a door, he chooses a wrong door. If you choose a wrong door, he must choose the OTHER wrong door, because you chose yours, so he can't. Let's put the prize in door 2. ________________ \|_W_\| \|_P_\| \|_W_\| If You chose 1, he must choose 3. Swap (To #2) and Win If You chose 3, he must choose 1. Swap (To #2) and Win If You chose 2, he can choose either, You swap (to the other wrong one) and lose. That is where the 2/3 chance is. __________________ http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...Cube_in_55.mpg

01-11-2004, 12:09 AM	#70
QreepyBORIS FFR Player Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: It is a mystery. Age: 35 Posts: 7,454	There we go! Now I get it. __________________ Signature subject to change. THE ZERRRRRG.

01-11-2004, 12:11 AM	#72
Cenright You thought I was a GUY?! Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Beaumont (A town with 25 times fewer people than this site) Age: 39 Posts: 3,139	Aperson saw how to do the math, but I don't think he got the concept behind it. He only knew that it worked. I could be wrong though, but then why didn't he just explain it like that? __________________ http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...Cube_in_55.mpg

01-10-2004, 09:32 PM	#62
VxDx FFR Player Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 1,871	Hmmm, ok, you're right. seriously, I thought about it wrong.

01-10-2004, 09:33 PM	#63
banditcom FFR Player Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Willimantic, CT Age: 43 Posts: 6,243	At first you think "oh there's 2 left, so there's 50% chance." No... wrong. Stats doesn't make sense on the surface. You have to look into it and think about it. EDIT: No prob VxDx. EDIT 2: By the way, I hate stats...

01-10-2004, 11:47 PM	#65
Lupin_the_3rd FFR Player Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 2,665	i'm still not convinced. you and your friend each purchase a lottery ticket. Your lottery ticket has one number on it. there is only one winner, and one person is guaranteed to win(so don't tell me bs about lottery rules). 1000 people enter into the lottery. You somehow know that the 998 other people have lost. Do you at that point turn to your friend and say i have a better chance than you at winning the lottery? NO THEY ARE EXACTLY THE SAME CHANCE OF WINNING. please disprove this without using a retarted program

01-10-2004, 11:50 PM	#67
Lupin_the_3rd FFR Player Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 2,665	so using the lottey theme, please explain what the original problem is, i'm just thinking about it the wrong way

01-11-2004, 12:13 AM	#73
QreepyBORIS FFR Player Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: It is a mystery. Age: 35 Posts: 7,454	His explanation was uber ambiguous. __________________ Signature subject to change. THE ZERRRRRG.

01-11-2004, 12:14 AM	#74
Cenright You thought I was a GUY?! Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Beaumont (A town with 25 times fewer people than this site) Age: 39 Posts: 3,139	He didn't get it. That is the reason probably. He only knew math. Math doesn't help much if you don't know why it comes out the way it does. __________________ http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...Cube_in_55.mpg

01-11-2004, 12:25 AM	#76
Cenright You thought I was a GUY?! Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Beaumont (A town with 25 times fewer people than this site) Age: 39 Posts: 3,139	Exhaustive proof doesn't help if people do get it. (It is just exhausting) You have to start with the basic concept. If you don't, everyone just thinks you just have some screwed up math, because you yourself never answered the question of WHY it wasn't 50/50. You just said that: Oh, he won! or Oh! he lost. Every idea needs a thesis statement. Then people don't want to kill you and you don't have to call everyone an idiot. No one wants to fish through 3-4 pages to find 3-4 sentences. A conlusion works also. It is 2/3, Because.... (insert a small amout of text that keeps people's attention that still answers WHY) __________________ http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...Cube_in_55.mpg

01-11-2004, 12:29 AM	#77
QreepyBORIS FFR Player Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: It is a mystery. Age: 35 Posts: 7,454	Lets stop caring now. Okay? __________________ Signature subject to change. THE ZERRRRRG.

01-11-2004, 12:30 AM	#78
Cenright You thought I was a GUY?! Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Beaumont (A town with 25 times fewer people than this site) Age: 39 Posts: 3,139	I'm finished. I just wanted to explain why everyone was frustrated with him. __________________ http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...Cube_in_55.mpg

01-11-2004, 12:42 AM	#79
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,431	The point was to frustrate people. You lose. __________________

01-11-2004, 01:12 AM	#80
banditcom FFR Player Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Willimantic, CT Age: 43 Posts: 6,243	I thought he explained it rather well actually. :P

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