The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[TheRapingDragon]

Improbable but not impossible.

Which is still what devonin is saying.

[MrRubix]

Not impossible, but improbable enough to royally piss me off.

[devonin]

It sounds to me like you've hatched some system whereby when you think you're going to lose, you bet small and when you think you're going to win you bet big. Given that you've wagered over 50 million credits, the fact that you're only down 1M is well within the bounds of probability, all it takes is a few wins on small values and losses on big values, and you can even be overall down credits while still maintaining one of the longest winning streaks, and never having a matching streak of losses.

[MrRubix]

Not at all -- that's Gambler's ****ing Fallacy. I'm not trying to gauge when I am winning or losing -- if you bet the same thing over and over, you should expect to break even when the probability is 50/50 (try spamming a bunch of 10's and see what happens. You normally don't have too much of a net change). The house takes 2%, granted, but that leaves 98k or so, which is still a lot -- and therefore the 2% isn't really enough to matter in this case. Going from 3.5 mil to 1 mil is nuts.

Ok, four were up. I just accepted them. Lost three, won one.

Just lost a 1000 and then a 5000.

[devonin]

I'm curious, and the stat has been requested but isn't visible as near as I can tell, what your actual won/loss record is numerically. Since you're placing bets of varying values, you can't really tell short of manually adding it up unless or until your win percentage gets high enough or low enough for the toplist.

That said, you're necessarily somewhere between 58.27%:41.73% and 41.37%:58.63% neither of which as extremes of the range are anywhere -near- so stunningly outside probability that someone as logical as you should be getting so emotionally upset.

[MrRubix]

Well ok, look at that stream of 6 bets just then. One out of six = 16.6% win, 83.3% loss in subprobability.

[lumphoboextreme]

lol those were mine. =D

[devonin]

You're seriously going to tell me that you think over -6- bets, you should -have- to be showing close to a 50/50 result? Even if you -only- made 100k bets (which you've clearly not done) you've still made 500 bets as a minimum, for which your rate of winning is somewhere between 41-58% How is that somehow outside the bounds of reasonable probability?

[MrRubix]

Dev: No, but over and over again across subsets, it shouldn't be such a ****storm.

Won a 1k, lost a 5k.

Lost twice again on top of that.

Do you see how absurd this is? Even when I revert back to hedging, I lose.

[devonin]

See, "won a 1k, lost a 5k" is still a nice perfect and reasonable 50/50. Just because you keep varying the amount you bet and getting unlucky with when you pick big doesn't mean that you're even having improbably poor odds of winning. I think it would be really interesting if you counted it up and discovered that you are actually winning more than 50% of bets, and just being really unlucky with when you decide to bet a larger amount.

[MrRubix]

"just being really unlucky with when you decide to bet a larger amount."

This is exactly my point though. And even if I only bet 100k's (which I have done, especially last night), I still shouldn't experience such an immense loss. You only lose out all your money if you're betting against someone who has more than you, who is able to push your limit down until you can no longer handle the high variance. This is not the case here because I've had enough to spam 100k's without worrying about the lowerbound yet.

Someone for the love of **** take my two 100k's so I can stop staring at them.

[devonin]

You're down 1.3M, with 100k bets that's being down 13. Across your 500 bets, that would have you at what, 237-263? That's a 47.4% win rate, which seems plenty close to 50% to me.

[MrRubix]

That's just over time, which I agree with. On the margin, when choosing my "base point" to be at 3.5 mil, the win/loss from there is ridiculous, and that is why I am pissed.

[devonin]

So you've acknowledged that over time your results are pretty typical and well within reason, but you've decided to point to a small sample which supports the idea that you are losing hard, to argue that you are, in fact, losing hard? I don't buy it.

As they say in the casnios "You're having a run of bad luck, don't worry it will turn around soon, I'm sure"

Oh, I see what you're saying, okay that's even more silly. If your win/loss rate is acceptably close to 50/50, that means that every time you've been down this far you've likely also been up that much at another time. (Say, at the end of your 15 bet winning streak) I'll notice that while you complain about being down 1.3M from your base value, you didn't likewise have anything negative to say about being -up- that much from your base value.

[MrRubix]

I ****ing buy it because I went from 3.5 to 1 mil. That is not debatable. I am pissed the **** off.

Lost my 10k.

Down another 100k


Dev: Of course -- I am not arguing with that. I'm just PISSED OFF. I am pissed off because now that I am on the lower end of the threshold, my betting power has diminished and now I have to start worrying about high variance again.

[lumphoboextreme]

5000 31 seconds ago Won
1000 1 minutes ago Lost
5000 4 minutes ago Won
1000 5 minutes ago Lost
5000 9 minutes ago Won
1000 11 minutes ago Lost

[MrRubix]

I'm below 1mil

You know, I was doing perfectly fine until Lump showed up -- once he started betting, I started falling from 3.5 mil, and he's continuing to rape me of credits even though I started out with an absurdly higher credit count.


Someone take the 100k bets

Lost a bunch of 1k's

Lost another 300k


Honestly. Come the **** on.

[MrRubix]

That's it. I'm leaving for good. This makes me too pissed off for words.

Good ****ing riddance.

Do what you want with my scores, I don't give a **** anymore.

[devonin]

What I find most interesting is that the top 10 credit winners, in order, are also the top 10 credit losers, in order. The best winrate list maps onto the worst winrate list adding pretty close to 100% in all cases, and the ten longest winning and losing streaks are all pretty similar as well.

It actually seems like a pretty solid case study for "This is how 50/50 chances work over time"

Edit: Well...goodbye then? I'm not sure why your scores are relevant to you deciding to stop using the site because you lost a lot in gambling.

[MrRubix]

Because I have a tournament where some of my prizes involve credits. I made a deal with Tass that if I didn't pay up, I agreed to have my scores deleted as insurance. I no longer have the credits to fend for the tournament.