jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

[T-Force]

Here's what I'm gathering.

Red is pretty sold on a wolf duo of reuben and tiloco.
Tiloco is sold on Red Blaster and reuben.


Jteh, reuben, if there are 2 wolves left, d oyou have any ideas as to the combo may be?

[Jtehanonymous]

If two wolves remain, I believe that Melissa certainly has to be one of them.

Given how intense and divided the last lynch was, I feel very good about a wolf between dfr and melissa. So if two wolves remain, Melissa is one.

Following this, I would branch out to Reuben as the second wolf. Reuben has prodded Melissa during the game, but then made that very awkward transition last lynch between dfr and melissa. He could have done that out of protecting melissa. Benguina did explain a bit of what just occurred, but I'd be hard-pressed to still get that possibility out of my mind.

[tiloco217]

I'm actually sold on it being red/DFR not red/reuben. That being said if I had to give a second lynch it would be reuben since Melissa is most definitely not DFR's partner and I am reading you as town that leaves Jteh and reuben. I think they were both towny yesterday and for very similar reasons but reuben's weird bit at eod would probably swing him back behind Jteh.

[Red Blaster]

I can't wait for the seer reaults.

[T-Force]

Alright guys, might as well say this before phase ends because lol too late for wolves to change picks:

Hi all, I'm your resident seer!
Night 1, I picked Red Blaster to seer, and he came back as HUMAN (sorry tiloco).

Night 2, I went for reuben. I decided to play a bit of a trap card when I said the seer should go for tiloco, but he picked it up and outed that plot so that sucks.
Hopefully I'll have a read on him to share in a moment.

[Cold Kitten]

In the night....

T-Force was killed!

Day 2 has begun and the phase will end January 25th, 2015 at 10 PM Server Time.


PLAYERS

1. T-Force - Killed N2
2. Funnygurl555 - Killed N1
3. Riotpolice - Lynched D0
4. Red Blaster
5. reuben_tate
6. lynn34melissa
7. tiloco217
8. Jtehanonymous
9. danceflashrevo - Lynched D1

[Red Blaster]

So any doubts that tiloco is wolf?

[Red Blaster]

Who is strangely absent now despite being in the thread up until the night phase ended

[Red Blaster]

Jteh? Ben?
Thoughts?

[reuben_tate]

Originally Posted by Jtehanonymous

I don't see the need in apologizing for not being able to incite action out of someone else. that's beyond your control and the most that can be done is just voting.

How comfortable were you being the one to insta? If Melissa came in the thread and posted, you said that she would essentially vote for dfr anyways, so why did you do the insta there? Were you just more sure on dfr than leaving it to a kitb?

You pretty much answered your own question :P Like I said before, I had a scummier read on DFR compared to Melissa so that's why I changed my vote back to DFR in the last few minutes of eod when I gave up hope that Melissa was going to show up.

Originally Posted by T-Force

Here's what I'm gathering.

Red is pretty sold on a wolf duo of reuben and tiloco.
Tiloco is sold on Red Blaster and reuben.


Jteh, reuben, if there are 2 wolves left, d oyou have any ideas as to the combo may be?

Currently, the people remaining (other than myself) would be T-force, Red, Melissa, Tiloco, and Jteh. The C(5,2)=10 possible combinations are:
T-Force / Red
T-Force / Melissa
T-Force / Tiloco
T-Force / Jteh
Red / Melissa
Red / Tiloco
Red / Jteh
Melissa / Tiloco
Melissa / Jteh
Tiloco / Jteh

Myself (and the majority of town I believe) have been reading you as town for pretty much this whole game wit, so that leaves:
Red / Melissa
Red / Tiloco
Red / Jteh
Melissa / Tiloco
Melissa / Jteh
Tiloco / Jteh

I feel like the back and forth between Red and Tiloco this entire game feels genuine/natural and doesn't look like awkward bussing or anything of the sort, so I'm ok with eliminating that option. Similarly, with the votes he's thrown on Melissa and Jteh and his interactions with them, I feel like Red can't be a wolf because I just can't seem to match a partner with him.

So that leaves:
Melissa / Tiloco
Melissa / Jteh
Tiloco / Jteh

But I have a hard time believing Tiloco and Jteh are a pair because Tiloco was the first to give a serious reads list in the beginning of the game, if he was wolf it'd be risky to vote for jteh since that could potentially start a D0 bandwagon (because pretty much all of town is grasping for anything to work with in D0).

So that leaves:
Melissa / Tiloco
Melissa / Jteh

Given that I've had some suspicions on both Melissa and Tiloco before, I wouldn't be surprised of the wolf pair (I can't think of anything at the moment that would make them unlikely to be a pair).

And a Melissa/Jteh pair isn't what I would first think, but it's nothing bizarre either.

With all that said, between my two thoughts for the wolf pairings, Melissa is in both of them, so by process of elimination, I think she should be considered for today's lynch.

[reuben_tate]

Ninja'd by night end, derp

[Jtehanonymous]

Well I'd expect wolves to go for tiloco seeing as town consensus was to indeed seer tiloco. that would get rid of that seering information.

Wolves could very well play the switcheroo just like t force did though.

[Jtehanonymous]

And Ben is doing combinations. lmfao really.

[reuben_tate]

Originally Posted by Jtehanonymous

And Ben is doing combinations. lmfao really.

sTaTiStIcS~

[Red Blaster]

Just as a note, I was roleblocked again.

[Jtehanonymous]

reading over your combinations ben, I agree that a pairing between tiloco and myself is very unlikely because he was on me so readily that first phase. Why on earth would he do that?

But however, I will tell you that a pairing with me and melissa also pretty preposterous. I dragged her with questioning and have been trying to point out just how much she's going downhill throughout the entire game. Why would I keep drawing attention to her like that when i could essentially let her be? Just before the second lynch I was all over her lack of substance in her posts before shortly grilling dfr as well. So again, I think you should consider that and the pairing between melissa and I is a lot less likely.

[reuben_tate]

That's a good, point, I hadn't considered that (I was trying to work from memory when doing my eliminations).

So that would only leave Tiloco and Melissa as the wolf pair (however, this is only under the premise that there actually are two wolves out there which may or may not be the case. I forgot to point that out in my last post, so the Melissa lynch is only a good idea in that case).

[Jtehanonymous]

Or it would leave Tiloco and you as the wolves in a two wolf world. After all, he felt very negatively about you in the beginning as well, but then you ROCKETED up his town list and were top town behind t force. When i have suspicions on somehow, I find it much much harder to assimilate someone back into town. He could be protecting you since this is a no flip game.

ben, in a one wolf world, who would the other wolf be? First reason from riot being a wolf, then reason from dfr being a wolf.

[Jtehanonymous]

on someone*

[reuben_tate]

Then there are six combinations to consider:
Riot / Melissa
Riot / Tiloco
Riot / Jteh
DFR / Melissa
DFR / Tiloco
DFR / Jteh

I highly doubt that Riot / Tiloco would be a wolf pair since Tiloco was a major force in riot's lynch and his giving up. I can maybe see DFR / Tiloco being a pair? Tiloco's "soft" vote on him struck me as a little weird as well as him "hard" vote to "match" my vote on Melissa in addition to his unvote later. Then again, a lot of people found my actions to be awkward as well during eod so idk.

After some inspection, I can see a Riot / Melissa pair being something. She excused herself from posting anything because she was "confused" and "the reads list was frustrating", which of course would definitely be the case of the two of them were wolves, I'd be confused what to do to if I rolled wolf in my first game ever and my only partner is in danger of being lynched on D0.

Originally Posted by lynn34melissa

During the EOD i considered insta-lynching riot, but didn't due to the fact that I believed him town. It seems that people voted him out because of his posts (his posts voiced his frustration with attempting to seem town - presumably being a townie- and the inability to project it successfully, as well as his non-explanations for his votes). I didn't post anything in part because I was a bit confused, and the reads list was frustrating.

To be honest, I only skimmed the thread for D1, so I forget the exact reasoning why town agreed that DFR / Melissa pair isn't a possible pair. I'll eliminate that pair for now and check back in the thread...I'm sure it's a stupidly obvious reason and I'm just not thinking straight at the moment.

As for the Riot/Jteh combo, Jteh was defending Riot a little bit before the lynch. I found it odd that he didn't really defend Riot too much though before his lynch but in the following night and day phase, he started making more of a big deal out of it (e.g. quoting riot and bolding the genuine sounding parts). However, this discrepancy could just be because he simply wasn't around for the last hour of eod and if he were around, there is a chance he would have made an effort to better defend riot.

I highly doubt that we have a DFR / Jteh combo though. Jteh was the person that started the DFR and he started it with a good handful of reasoning and evidence (as opposed to saying "<twgv>riot</twgv>, k bye").

So that leaves:
Riot / Jteh
Riot / Melissa
DFR / Tiloco

Statistics-wise, each person appears once lol. However, if I had to choose between who looked more scummy: DFR or Riot, then I'd go with DFR. I think a lot of people (myself included) voted for riotpolice on the basis that even if he wasn't a wolf, we'd at least be lynching a seemingly useless town. And after re-evaluating his posts again during D1, I'm led to believe that he was a townie that eventually just felt defeated and didn't know what to do "to please town".

So because cOmBiNaTiOnS, I'd go for Tiloco as someone to consider for today's lynch.