The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[MrRubix]

Originally Posted by hi19hi19

No, I would figure this would require millions, even billions of bets to begin to play out in a predictable fashion. Explain to me why not.

And even then, with the house taking 1%, you're ****ed anyway

This simply isn't true. The smallest common increment for worst case scenario is 10 credits, max being 100k (most risky). To cover a hedged bet starting moderately (say 10k), anything I lose I can continue to re-cover with higher hedged bets, and therefore I earn back what I lost plus some, even when the house is taking 1%, since increasing increments can cover as long as such increments exist, and as long as the odds are good enough that you can guarantee an eventual win. This strategy actually has a name to it (I forgot what it was called), and it's empirically effective given that you aren't too risk-seeking/prone to overbetting, although it's generally frowned upon because it's very risky if you overdo it (since bad streaks DO occur. You still need to bail once in a while if you're losing too much). You can virtually guarantee you will never lose more money than you are making unless you have an absolutely crap streak, but even if that does occur, you can always get it back using the same strategy, as the probability of having two extremely bad streaks in close proximity (enough to offset your judgment of utility pertaining to whether or not you can afford to lose whatever you are betting) is even more improbable.

This strategy, again, only works if you have a lot of money relative to the increments. If you don't have a lot of money, you risk driving yourself into extreme debt by risking more than you should (as the increments are a higher percentage of your total credit count). As you earn more credits relative to these increments, the marginal impact of loss is diminished and therefore the cost of hedging decreases, thereby allowing you to recover under the assumption that a long, bad streak is not going to occur during recovery.

This is why his strategy is technically workable even though it's risky below a certain credit count (too lazy to calculate the cutoff for an expected breakeven). You could use the technique with as little as 50k (estimating) as long as you're operating with lower hedged increments. I wouldn't use this strategy if I had less than that, honestly.


EDIT: LOL, how funny. I started out with like 100 here... By re-covering lower variance bets with higher hedges, I am slowly earning money back. Only a matter of time before the numbers can start growing larger.

EDIT2: Yep, the moment I stop hedging, I start losing my higher-variance bets.

I wish I would have done this sooner when I had 100,000+ credits -- I've have millions right now, haha

[Shouka]

Well my credits just got raped. I had a losing streak of 17 followed by another one of 13 very soon after.

333k -> 20k ;_;

[tofurox]

I put my 8,000,000 in 50,000 bets!

[hahaujusdied]

now I can only place 1 bet at a time... wtf..

[lightdarkness]

Originally Posted by hahaujusdied

now I can only place 1 bet at a time... wtf..

Yup

[Nyctor]

I work with rauchster, and all I have heard for the past 8ish hours is about this, and I am so sick of hearing him talk about it. For the two of you who disagree with him, just stop for my sake.

Thank you,

Nick

[tofurox]

no more 8 mill for me xd

[behanjc]

Weeew!
We're in the money, we're in the money.

Too bad I don't care about credits but don't want to stop gambling either :P

Credits Won: 1242489
Credits Lost: 874240

[hahaujusdied]

that makes it a lot tougher if you have less credits and want to use a strategy like mine that takes time (after 5000 games i gained about 5000 credits but i only started with 191).. that kinda ruins it.

[cry4eternity]

woohoo I was down almost 30k credits yesterday, now I'm ahead by 5k. I figured it out

[tangomango]

ugh, 100K-> 4K.
now its tough trying to get my credits back.

[MrRubix]

It is *extremely* hard and timeconsuming to win back your credits if you have less than about 100,000 credits. You are very limited in your betting power and you have to be *extremely* risk-averse, since the slightest mishap will completely slaughter your betting power and you'll have to do a whole lot of crap to get back up to where you once were. Once you reach the 50k mark, you have a higher degree of betting power that allows you to reach "escape velocity" and start making some mad profits, and once you reach 100k, you should never have to lose money again.

[remedy1502]

Why isn't this a sticky?
Lol
Also, I think I'm better off just playing FFR to get creds atm, until I get to 50k ish.
Not much you can do with 1k. =/

[EDEdDNEdDYFaN]

patented strat ->

make a bunch of 10 cred bets

get on a losing streak of about 3-5

accept a bet that looks decent in gain (maybe 500-1,000. 10k if you are daring)

you'll pretty much always win

[dean_machine]

Originally Posted by EDEdDNEdDYFaN

you'll pretty much always win

yeah, 50% of the time.

[remedy1502]

Originally Posted by EDEdDNEdDYFaN

patented strat ->

make a bunch of 10 cred bets

get on a losing streak of about 3-5

accept a bet that looks decent in gain (maybe 500-1,000. 10k if you are daring)

you'll pretty much always win

I do that then I lose ;_;

[EDEdDNEdDYFaN]

Originally Posted by remedy1502

I do that then I lose ;_;

u suk br0



I dunno, it's been working for me great. Although I was down like...350k I'm back at 100 (thanks to a donation from bill_clinton and a very lucky bet).

[WaLkInStIcK]

Ok so i started off 70k....... slowly made my way up to 95k....... then this one 50k bet......... Screwed me over then im now at around 5 credits total............ and i owe someone 1500 credits for borrowing

booooooooooooooooooo

I want my credits back.............




Ps. SAUCED by ban

someone i know thats about to read this should know.......

[EDEdDNEdDYFaN]

just wanted to make a quick post


you guys need to remember that this isn't a real "coin flip" happening. there is no such thing as true random number generation and the system may indeed be trying to even itself out at 50% after a loss streak. it's bound to happen, that is why gambler's fallacy may even be true.

[Frozen Beat]

Originally Posted by EDEdDNEdDYFaN

u suk br0



I dunno, it's been working for me great. Although I was down like...350k I'm back at 100 (thanks to a donation from bill_clinton and a very lucky bet).

Same buddy. I've been working like that, and I won all the credits I lost >: D