jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

[MarioNintendo]

Originally Posted by sanzath

MN I see you reading the fucking thread

just

post please

I beg you

hiya

Yesterday, instead of sleeping I was thinking about this whole thing. I promise I will make a reads list before the end of the day in case I get killed.

Right now, I'm trying to shift my thinking to mechanics, and this is affecting the way I post. As I was falling asleep, my mind was going adrift and I had a bunch of ideas. I'll list them in 3 separate posts, I hope they make as much sense now as they did to me yesterday.

[MarioNintendo]

Thought #1 : A dead wolf's reads list

Because of the number of wolves in this game, this reads list from Shadow_God_10 is the only opportunity we will have at looking into a confirmed wolf's mind (before the end of the game):

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

Have a bullshit reads list that I summoned via demonic circle:

Mario- I'm wolf leaning because you've been all over the place and a little aggressive imo (I'm pretty sure I'm the only one thinking that)
Sanzath- More than likely town. +1 for the Haku wisdom you blessed us with
Yoshi- I have no idea who you are which makes it weird, not to mention you were prepared to sling Dragon to the sun for not even posting once. I'm very conflicted about you. Null for now
Antori- Probably not a wolf but if he's lurking in the shadows as one, he completely forgot to make his own presence known to all of us which I think is suspect
Raeko- AFK Raeko is probably beneficial for us newer players so that way she doesn't come swooping in to massacre us all.
Sven- You're town as fuck. You've been really helpful for the newer players and I, for one appreciate it a lot
GS- Dicks. Butts. and Dicks. You're a chaotic towny who would steal from his own villages candy supply.
Dragon- I had you as a wolf who wasn't sure how to react at first, but you opened up to us which made things way better for you. I'm very convinced you're town.


If I have to vote, then I'm probably going to say Antori because of potential bad play.

Before we read into this list, we must determine what was Shadow_God_10's as he was posting it.

Before we do, some facts:
* The list was posted 5.75 hours before his lynch
* At the time of his post, the votes were:

shadowgod (2)- Sven, Mario
dragonmega (1)- Shy
gold stinger (1)- antori
unvote- dragonmega, gold stinger, sanzath

Was Shadow_God_10 trying to save his own skin?
Surely. Reads look good in general, and he was probably hoping either H&H and/or I would remove our votes on him. The votes on him at that point weren't based on deep arguments: H&H voted right out of the gates, and I voted Shadow_God because his tone seemed "off" (aka nothing concrete, I wanted him to post just to get a better idea of his tone). In theory, the vote switch could have happened: H&H's vote for Shadow_God was during his 3rd post, which was the 5th post of the entire game. I believe H&H is the only one who aimed at the same person for the entirety of d0, so Shadow_God was probably hoping H&H would "be reasonable" and do like everyone else, which is to move their vote around. As for me, I switched votes a lot during d0, so Shadow_God was probably still feeling rather safe. I think the only point at which he felt in danger is when he posted

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

Welp.

just 1h10m before the deadline, at which point he went after gold stinger, probably thinking "There's no way I'm getting through this by arguing, so I'll use votes instead".
Was Shadow_God_10 trying to shift blame?
What I think: Probably. He did list me as wolf. Unless I'm mistaken, the only other person who had me as a wolf lean was Hateandhatred. I think Shadow_God was trying to get a bus rolling, but it never worked.

The other wolf leans Shadow_God had in his list were Yoshi and Antori.

Shadow_God and Antori: They had a bit of back and forth, with Antori's defense only being

Originally Posted by Antori

whenever i try to explain my reads people jump on me and now it gave me ptsd.

goldstinger because this isn't his usual town meta i saw him play before, he's alot more"cautious" than i'm used to him.

yoshi because of low effort he'd done.

And for some reason this was automatically satisfactory for Shadow_God, who went on to pressure Yoshi right after.

Sanzath actually pointed at this interaction:

Originally Posted by sanzath

big post but

I feel like the interaction between shadowgod and antori feels kinda manufactured? Like, if they're together in wolfchat, they could have come up with that entire sequence beforehand in an attempt to say "hey let's interact together to draw away suspicion". Idk, it feels fake to me.

Anyone else see it?

I agree that it feels odd, kind of like "there and done". No one else had the time to step into that interaction.

Shadow_God and Yoshi: Still null, no interaction at all from what I can see.


Was Shadow_God_10 protecting his wolf partner?
That's the million dollar question... Since he was "wolf leaning" me, I'm tempted to say that, yes, he was protecting his partner. He made this list 5.75 hours before getting lynched, hence he probably did not expect to die. He must have felt relatively safe. He either posted this list and expected his problems to go away, or he expected to die (!?) and posted this list to throw us off on d1.

Was Shadow_God_10 trying to create/join a bandwagon?
I think what was going on in Shadow_God_10's mind was what he could create a "tie" by voting for Gold Stinger. In fact, that's what he attempted 30 mins before the lynch, but because GS was able to shift his vote, Shadow_God perished. Shadow_God could have chosen dragonmegaXX or Hateandhatred (Sanzath had a vote on H&H at that point), but Shadow_God opted for GS for some reason. I believe this was a bad decision on Shadow_God's part, because
* In my opinion, GS was much more convincing as a town during d0 than dragonmegaXX. The reason Shadow_God gave for voting GS was:

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

Something about you felt a little off and I was really confused here hold on...I'm gonna go back really fucking quick here

(of course, he never came back)
* If dragonmegaXX is the wolf, Shadow_God could have taken the opportunity to distance himself from the wolf, or possibly even take credit for their lynch.

While I have my reasons to say it was a bad play, Shadow_God was probably not being careless. Do the points above suggest Shadow_God had an agenda when posting for GS?

-> If GS and dragonmegaXX were both town: Shadow_God should have voted for dragonmegaXX. It would have been much easier for him to start a bandwagon and would have probably spared his life. He should have known dragonmegaXX is not active and hadn't cast a single vote at that point, making it a smaller risk.

-> If GS is wolf: Shadow_God would be pulling a reverse psychology on us. This would mean that GS is a freaking alpha wolf for being the final nail in the coffin of his partner. This play is way too risky in my opinion. I list it here for completedness, but I don't see this happening.

-> If dragonmegaXX is wolf: Shadow_God's only way to escape elimination is to vote for the only other town in the lynch pool. Seems more probable than GS as wolf.

?? What if Shadow_God had voted for Hateandhatred? That would have been the worst case scenario for towns at d1, because there would be no new information to extract (both are dead).


My takeaway:
- This makes dragonmegaXX and Antori look bad.
- Yoshi comes out 100% Null. Again. And I don't like that.

[MarioNintendo]

Thought #2 : When a wolf gives up
One set of posts that I couldn't get out of my head after the lynch was this one:

(6 minutes before deadline)

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

Something about you felt a little off and I was really confused here hold on...I'm gonna go back really fucking quick here

(4 mintues before deadline)

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

No I'm gonna keep it the way it is. I'm outtie! I'll catch you guys in the Post Game/Deadchat.

We go from
* Hey guys gimme a sec I can prove I'm innocent
to
* bye, I give up, see you next game, (soon you will know I'm a wolf and I'm ok with this)

There has to be a reason between this sudden switch in tone. I'll try to explore some of them

* Wolf chat interaction (aka "STFU, let me take it from here")
To me, this seems very probable. I can picture it in my head:

------------ Wolf Chat ---------------
shadow: Holy shit there's only 4 minutes left
wolf: That's not enough time you'll get lynched
shadow: No I'll come up with something, find some quotes I can use, we can probably move some votes
wolf: I don't think they're going to buy it. If you give additional reads and fail to survive, you'll probably incriminate me in d1. I can't take that risk.
shadow: Alright dammit, good luck
wolf: Thanks, I can manage
------------ /Wolf Chat ---------------

If we want to believe this option, I think it gives a certain character to the other wolf:
* Planning for the next days of the game, worrying that some slips might get out during eod
* Confident that they're better off playing alone than risking being handicapped with a slip

Overall, to me this just screams "Veteran wolf", someone who has rolled wolf before, or has seen enough games to see where that eod was headed. Someone active enough to catch Shadow_God in mid-air and prevent them from spilling some beans.

Looking at our set of players, this would put some light on:
- Gold Stinger (hate to list him, because I like GS very much this game, but if he was wolf this is how I think he would play it)
- Melloncollie
- Sanzath



* Shadow_God_10 just didn't feel like playing anymore?
Maybe no one told Shadow_God to give up.

Maybe he had just had enough.
He told us he had had health problems the day before, so he could have been recovering. Maybe he was getting too stressed out and he started to feel physically ill.

However, I doubt that Shadow_God hara-kiri'd out of lack of interest. His last post says "I'll catch you guys in the Post Game/Deadchat.", meaning he's excited for the game to end so that he can be able to discuss it in more details later on.

Anyway, if this option was the case, it probably invalidates the option above, so it's worth considering if this was Shadow_God's state of mind at eod.

My takeaway:
If we read correctly Shadow_God's quoted posts above, we might be able to understand what kind of wolf partner we're dealing with.

[MarioNintendo]

Thought #3 : There's only one wolf left
I think this is the first time I'm in a game where there's only one wolf left standing. This got me thinking about how the mechanics change from this point on. The wolf is now unable to communicate with a teammate, both in the thread or in the secret wolf chat. This got me thinking.

We are all town except for one wold
This is a big change in mechanics. Fewer moving parts. The wolf has no possibility to vote or distance themself from their wolf partner from this point on. The only way a wolf can look good right now is by:
* Providing believable town reads (which should be easy, because the wolf knows anyone and everyone around them is town)
* Arguing a townie out of a lynch (which will always happen if they try)

I think "town reading" each other will give us a false sense of security. If I was a wolf on d1, I would try to make as little waves as possible: being invisible. It's easier to do this by "town reading" people than by "wolf reading" them. I think the wolf will still do their best to jump on a mislynch bus, but on d1 it seems risky.

This is why I delayed my posting a bit, I didn't want to overly influence the wolf's strategy.

Conclusion: To find the wolf this phase, I'll look at users who are
* easy going
* making obvious town reads (possibly to get people to agree with them and find them not menacing)

... I'll also be looking at people who seem to change personality after this specific post.

[b]How can a lonely wolf earn town's trust?
The wolf is in a tough position:
* All of their "town reads" will be correct
* ... But all of their "wolf reads" will be wrong

Thus, I believe the wolf will make as little reads as possible, not to leave any traces (especially if, after reading my Thought #2, we think we're dealing with a wolf who cares about slips).

I think that, if pressured, this wolf will give reads, possibly on all current players, but with no pressure, I don't see an incentive for them to give some bs reads (unless they are veteran, planned ahead and did exactly this). I also think that this post will influence the wolf's behavior, so I'll stay on the lookout for this.

[MarioNintendo]

Errata:
in thought 1:
Before we read into this list, we must determine what was Shadow_God_10's intent as he was posting it.

[MarioNintendo]

Errata:
in thought 2
In the wolfchat, I meant "shadow" to say only 6 minutes left

in thought 3
We are all town except for one wolf

[MarioNintendo]

Yeah I didn't preview my posts, lol

[MarioNintendo]

Alright, done for now. Excited to hear what you guys think

[dragonmegaXX]

Originally Posted by MarioNintendo

Alright, done for now. Excited to hear what you guys think

Honestly wow’d with how much thought you put into that. The only thing I thought odd was that you said I seemed in the top two most suspicious people in thought one, but then in thought two you said you found the people who were town reading the hardest were the ones who should auspicious, when I’ve spent today mainly just trying to defend myself. Though that could just be because I don’t have much faith in turning out reads right now, and also I’m just prone to focusing on myself in this kind of scenario anyways.

[MarioNintendo]

Originally Posted by dragonmegaXX

Honestly wow’d with how much thought you put into that. The only thing I thought odd was that you said I seemed in the top two most suspicious people in thought one, but then in thought two you said you found the people who were town reading the hardest were the ones who should auspicious, when I’ve spent today mainly just trying to defend myself. Though that could just be because I don’t have much faith in turning out reads right now, and also I’m just prone to focusing on myself in this kind of scenario anyways.

Try to explore different scenarios, that's why I separated my thoughts into different posts. They sometimes suggest different explanations to similar phenomenons.

1) I listed you as wolf because of Shadow_God's reads on you.

2) I listed (and eventually voted) for melloncollie because she behaves in a way I think fits a wolf at this point in the game.


1) is based on evidence we're not fully sure how to interpret (maybe it's not even evidence)
2) is based on gut and pattern recognition.

Either one could be right. I'm listing everything I can in case I get killed.

[ShyYoshiGuy]

It was a bad idea the last times I forgot to say I had to go, so I’m saying it now. I’ve gotta go help move.

[sanzath]

Originally Posted by MarioNintendo

Alright, done for now. Excited to hear what you guys think

wow

cool post

Regarding thought #1:

Was Shadow_God_10 protecting his wolf partner?
That's the million dollar question... Since he was "wolf leaning" me, I'm tempted to say that, yes, he was protecting his partner. He made this list 5.75 hours before getting lynched, hence he probably did not expect to die. He must have felt relatively safe. He either posted this list and expected his problems to go away, or he expected to die (!?) and posted this list to throw us off on d1.

Can you expand on this a bit? Do you mean that this particular point makes you think the wolf is within the people he townread and not within the people he nullread?

As an aside, staring at the reads list so much, I just noticed he didn't even say that Raeko was null, just that "it was good she wasn't here".

Regarding thought #2:

I still have no idea why he gave up like that. I think your wolfchat theory is interesting, but of the people you listed, Raeko's the only real possibility to me. Considering she was indeed in thread at EoD (responded to his "see you in deadchat/postgame!" post with "??"s), I suppose it could have happened.

[MarioNintendo]

Originally Posted by sanzath

wow

cool post

Regarding thought #1:


Can you expand on this a bit? Do you mean that this particular point makes you think the wolf is within the people he townread and not within the people he nullread?

As an aside, staring at the reads list so much, I just noticed he didn't even say that Raeko was null, just that "it was good she wasn't here".

I think putting someone as null would be protecting them as well. It evokes nothing, so it certainly doesn't put some light on them at the time of posting the list.

And yes, shadow's read of raeko looks dodge-ish, like "I don't want to make a read here", it factored into my vote for raeko

[MarioNintendo]

wait, what happened to your gold stinger vote?

Why do you agree with me?

Remember, I have you on a wolf lean. I don't like driving a wagon with you on board

[ShyYoshiGuy]

Originally Posted by MarioNintendo

wait, what happened to your gold stinger vote?

Why do you agree with me?

Remember, I have you on a wolf lean. I don't like driving a wagon with you on board

Everyone seems to trust you and your arguments sound good.

[MarioNintendo]

Originally Posted by ShyYoshiGuy

Everyone seems to trust you and your arguments sound good.

There's a flaw in your reasoning.

Yes, everyone trusts I'm town. BECAUSE I'm town, it also means I do not have knowledge of who the wolves are. The way I see this is, the more you know someone is town, the more you know they don't know anything. I'm just shooting ideas.

If you follow my ideas blindly, you are one of two things:
- A wolf taking advantage of my ideas (because they fit your agenda)
- A lazy town

I liked you more when you were voting for gold stinger. Alas, I disagreed with your vote, but at least it showed some effort to challenge ideas (gold stinger is a hard town). You were starting to make waves.

Your tone/intent completely shifted right after my posts. It's too sudden. It's weird. It's as if you didn't believe anything when you were voting for gold stinger.

[ShyYoshiGuy]

Originally Posted by MarioNintendo

There's a flaw in your reasoning.

Yes, everyone trusts I'm town. BECAUSE I'm town, it also means I do not have knowledge of who the wolves are. The way I see this is, the more you know someone is town, the more you know they don't know anything. I'm just shooting ideas.

If you follow my ideas blindly, you are one of two things:
- A wolf taking advantage of my ideas (because they fit your agenda)
- A lazy town

I liked you more when you were voting for gold stinger. Alas, I disagreed with your vote, but at least it showed some effort to challenge ideas (gold stinger is a hard town). You were starting to make waves.

Your tone/intent completely shifted right after my posts. It's too sudden. It's weird. It's as if you didn't believe anything when you were voting for gold stinger.

Well ‘cuz my argument doesn’t sound as good in my head now, you convinced me. Though, I mean, voting for GS was just so he would explain himself, but that didn’t work, so.

[ShyYoshiGuy]

Originally Posted by MarioNintendo

If you follow my ideas blindly, you are one of two things:
- A wolf taking advantage of my ideas (because they fit your agenda)
- A lazy town

Much less lazy, much more because I have no clue what I’m doing. But I am also lazy because I’m busy.

[ShyYoshiGuy]

Originally Posted by MarioNintendo

wait, what happened to your gold stinger vote?

He’s close behind, but your reasoning is better than mine. My reasoning’s just that his argument doesn’t hold any bound.

[MarioNintendo]

See my thought #1