jTWG LXXI: Harry Potter and the Rise of the Wolves - Game Thread

[T-Force]

Gonna gut read here for a sec.
Anyone else feeling that DFR's a nervous wolf right now? Because I am.

I appreciate the insight to how to play EpicMafia, and how it can be used to read Riot. But it is kinda late.
Also, if he was a slight town lean based off of LTWG, why did you vote for him?

DFR

[Cold Kitten]

Vote Count
lynn43melissa (2) - Red Blaster, danceflashrevo
danceflashrevo (2) - Jtehanonymous, T-Force

Unvote
reuben_tate, lynn43melissa

Not Voting
tiloco

There are 4 votes needed for instalynch.

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

Usually at this point there's a claim or a red check by a cop. If there's not, you just kinda talk it out and make the best lynch. If there's a mislynch, then mafia wins. If you hit a mafia, play continues to final three, the longest of all the phases usually.

We aren't at lynch and lose yet. 5 humans 2 wolves..even if we mislynch we'd still be at 3 humans 2 wolves then we'd be at mylo.

Regarding the seer, granted that I was blocked last night they got a seer, so either they seered a town and don't want to out that information just yet or they are dead. It'd actually be nice for them to claim now as we'd have confirmed seer, the seer target and then the two confirmed dead players for four confirmed towns. That'd certainly narrow down our potential lynch pool, but it's really more of a last resort strategy.

[tiloco217]

He was talking about epic mafia games not this one

I don't think that seer should out with a green unless they or their green check are about to get lynched.

[reuben_tate]

I just want to give everyone a heads up that I won't be at a computer from now until eod, I'm pretty much at school from 9:30am to 7pm today <_> I'll be on my phone and I'll try to pop in between classes/work.

[tiloco217]

make sure you get your vote in. Also, red blaster, that profile pic is not ok :P

[Jtehanonymous]

Originally Posted by tiloco217

The only comments I have is that almost everyone has had the same read on you so why is it weird coming from Melissa? Also the most information Ben has given to this game has been that page so I understand you being scared of analyzing it but you need to do it anyways.

Her read on me isn't out of the ordinary, but rather, it exemplified the beginning of a trend I'm seeing. Her most recent posts are lacking more and more and seem to be driven out of necessity.

And of course, I certainly have taken it upon myself to read through everything Ben has posted. I just had reservations on how strongly I felt about my ability to do so. The way I handle a posting pattern like Ben's is I essentially keep revisiting the same passages in different contexts of the game, and that's how I've been handling that page in particular. With Ben gone until EOD again, a lot of my reasoning for him will almost have to fall on this section anyway.

Originally Posted by tiloco217

It seemed like with Jteh he brought up reasons that Jteh should be mafia and then decided to call him town anyways because... he wanted to? With Melissa it felt like you were trying to sheep the reads that have been going around on her without incriminating yourself too much."

I feel dfr has been dancing around the accusations he's made on Melissa and myself and for some reason didn't fully commit to anything until almost pushed. It appears like sheeping because like I've commented earlier, if you asked me to find concrete sentences that explicitly state his stance and why, I'm hard-pressed to do so.

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

Based on epic mafia meta, he was really wolfy. He didn't say much at all, some times he just checked in to put a vote without reasoning on someone and left, really weird contradictions with what he says, and simply refusing to say anything.

Based on live twg meta, slight town read. He in live said that he was a late game player and doesn't have much to say d0. I don't think he had a wolf game in live twg so I can't really have wolf meta for him. But if we compare to his town live twg game, there aren't too many differences.

So based on this synopsis of different styles of TWG gameplay, you decided that epic mafia meta was the more surefire way to go here instead of the live twg meta. As T Force mentioned, you have him town on one hand and wolfy on the other, indicating that you could've had some sort of dilemma in your mind on what to do. How did you deal with that decision to fall one way over the other, and sure enough to make that your final vote?

Because at EOD, you had no problem stating that Riot was indeed your top lean for that evening:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

As the above may not seem very helpful to the game, it's just how I felt reading through the game again. My number one red lean is riot.

You certainly didn't hesitate at that moment because you quickly brushed over it and started talking about how green T-force seemed to you.

Originally Posted by T-Force

Gonna gut read here for a sec.
Anyone else feeling that DFR's a nervous wolf right now? Because I am.

I appreciate the insight to how to play EpicMafia, and how it can be used to read Riot. But it is kinda late.
Also, if he was a slight town lean based off of LTWG, why did you vote for him?

I certainly get the feeling that dfr is nervous. I sense a disconnect between what dfr intends to say and what ends up in his posts, because nothing strongly affirms his opinions for me.

Although your analysis is after the fact and I'm having trouble wedging it into events at EOD, it's appreciated, dfr.

[Jtehanonymous]

I'm leaving for now and work 5:30-9:30 EST. I'll be back around 10:30 EST and will make EOD.

[tiloco217]

Consider this post an informal vote on DFR. I don't want to actually vote on him because if I do it could be insta'd and I would rather have this day play out.

DFR has been here quite a bit throughout but hasn't really brought a lot of info to the game. I already brought up his weird reads on Jteh and Melissa here

Originally Posted by tiloco217

I realized that I hadn't responded to DFR. His reads on Jteh and Melissa felt very awkward to me. It seemed like with Jteh he brought up reasons that Jteh should be mafia and then decided to call him town anyways because... he wanted to? With Melissa it felt like you were trying to sheep the reads that have been going around on her without incriminating yourself too much.

I hadn't thought about it myself but I agree with what Jteh and T-force have brought up in that his vote on Riot doesn't make much sense given that he has been so wishy-washy for the rest of his reads and he has brought up reason on why he should have been wishy-washy on that one.

I don't really agree that he has been nervous but I don't think he seems confident either so that doesn't effect much.

One thing to point out is that it is unlikely that DFR came up with killing Funny since he was pushing on her so most likely it was someone else's idea. I still think it is possible that he could agree with it though because it is unlikely to backfire on him and she was one of the most widely town read players. At the moment I can't think of who that would indicate but I think that could rule out a world of him and Melissa (although his vote is currently on her so that doesn't really do a whole lot) but I think it's good info anyways.


I realized when looking through posts that I hadn't answered Melissa's question on what I meant about RB being so wrong. When I said that his kill list was myself, t-force, and you. At the time that was my top town in that order.

[T-Force]

Actually, to contrast your read, I think a Funnygurl killing by DFR makes perfect sense.
At least from a conspiracy standpoint:

FG was read as town by practically every person in this game with the exception of DFR. Wolves will usually go for either blues, or who they feel is the towniest (maybe try to get two birds with one stone). With this in mind, all DFR has to do is mention that he feels/felt FG was wolfier, makes the kill, and it makes him look less suspicious because why would he go for his second wolf lean behind Riot?



Also, I hate to say that I won't be around for EoD (I will be probably going to bed in 3-4 hours), but I'll try to say what I can as well as bring up some ideas for tomorrow.

[danceflashrevo]

Originally Posted by T-Force

Also, if he was a slight town lean based off of LTWG, why did you vote for him?

I felt more comfortable with reading him based off of EM which is what I have most experience with him in, plus I think EM is more similar to forum TWG than live TWG is.

[danceflashrevo]

I'm pretty sure I expressed thoughts that I was doubting riot being green. I didn't hesitate because I wanted to just get off what I was thinking as quick as I could. My top lean doesn't mean I'm super confident in that lean. I haven't been super confident on a single read I've had this game dammit. The slight town lean that I had for him was from the live twg where he didn't do anything. I feel way more comfortable reading him from an epicmafia game where he seems to control the game than a live twg where everyone's new and nervous and all that. Also my read on riot has indeed lessened in confidence that he was red.

Also T-Force, I think that FG's death makes me more suspicious because you're obviously using that logic against me now. If I had anyone to kill in the night, it would be you because everyone was reading you town, which is the read I've said ad nauseam. I just don't think that motive is quite plausable.

[tiloco217]

I am going to start watching all of the harry potter movies again by the way. There is not nearly enough of the spirit of it in this game :P

[danceflashrevo]

ther u go

[T-Force]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

I'm pretty sure I expressed thoughts that I was doubting riot being green. I didn't hesitate because I wanted to just get off what I was thinking as quick as I could. My top lean doesn't mean I'm super confident in that lean. I haven't been super confident on a single read I've had this game dammit. The slight town lean that I had for him was from the live twg where he didn't do anything. I feel way more comfortable reading him from an epicmafia game where he seems to control the game than a live twg where everyone's new and nervous and all that. Also my read on riot has indeed lessened in confidence that he was red.

Also T-Force, I think that FG's death makes me more suspicious because you're obviously using that logic against me now. If I had anyone to kill in the night, it would be you because everyone was reading you town, which is the read I've said ad nauseam. I just don't think that motive is quite plausable.

That bolded part there shows a HUGE contradiction.

For one, you never gave him a slight town lean until after he was dead.
Two, when did he ever have control of this game? How can you base his play off of EpicMafia when what you've described here is NOTHING compared to how he played this game.



PS. Thank you, I'm touched.

[danceflashrevo]

he's played extremely different from his epic mafia game but i feel more comfortable reading him based on em is what i meant. also i did indeed feel that he was red and that's why i voted. however, my confidence in that has now dwindled after thinking about it a little more, because i've NEVER played a forum twg with him ever. I don't know how to read him. I expected him to play like his epic mafia game because I think it's more similar to forum twg. Maybe he plays forum twg like his live twg. I really don't know, I guess we'll find out after all this has been said and done.

[Red Blaster]

I'm really not liking all of this "Oh I won't be here for xxx time period" stuff that's going on.
Literally half of the players wont be around for eod/majority of today.

[danceflashrevo]

life happens?

[Cold Kitten]

For future phases, if everyone would like, I can move the phase end time forward a bit. Today will still end at 10 PM Server Time.

[T-Force]

This is where I'm at right now, stream of consciousness time!

DFR is our best lynch today. ASSUMING that he is a wolf, he is not the leader of the pack. Funnygurl would not have been his kill, so it's safe to assume the otbher wolf is someone with experience.

Looking at the remaining 7 players, 4 of them have rolled wolf in previous games.
Jtehanonymous - Smash Bros.
tiloco - Flash Squadron
reuben_tate - Flash Squadron
Myself - Return of the Son of jTWG (we don't speak of the first one)

Red Blaster, and lynn34melissa have never rolled wolf and almost can't be his partner.
Lynn would've fallen behind DFR due to DFR having played more games, and then we would've seen me dead, and not FG, as Rece stated - unless he was blue hunting, which is a possibility, but I don't see it as he saw Funny's blue game firsthand and it was NOTHING similar to this.
PLUS, if it was Lynn, I do think Reuben would've been the first one gone. Sibling rivalry and all that. Plus, it'd be super easy to pass of as being framed for the kill.

Red Blaster I don't think is the other wolf either, because he hasn't played a wolf game, and he has fallen perfectly into his normal town game. If he rolls wolf, I don't see him being able to adapt back into his usual game so quickly - it usually takes a game or two to find your legs.


So now let's look at the other 4 options.

Me: Let's be honest - my wolf game SUCKS. I got lynched D0 my first time, and appeared so friggin' wolfy the second time that I'm embarrassed about it. The only time I rolled it in Live TWG, I sacrificed myself early and let my partner carry us. I'm not it.
Plus, I've tunneled him pretty damn hard this game.
Voting pattern: DFR; Riot

reuben_tate: He can assimilate into town well, but not without some bumps. That said, he hasn't really appeared when the rest of us have. Something of merit there.
Voting pattern: Riot; lynn34melissa
Started the train on someone who, looking back, was probably town (albeit an unhelpful one), and has been voting (possibly jokingly) on someone who is pretty much a townie at this point.

tiloco: He is an MVP wolf player. He has appeared super town this game, but let's look at two people who he believes are confirmed town (me and Red Blaster [and to behonest, I agree with him on that]). They're both getting suspicious of him. We both know what he's capable of as a wolf, and his agreement, and willingness to agree with us (well, me) a lot is worrisome.
Voting pattern: Riot (second vote there, basically got the train to full speed), DFR
That DFR vote throws a wrench into my idea.
If the seer is still alive, I would definitely suggest checking him out tonight. If he's town, then he's a great asset; if not, well then bam roasted.

Jtehanonymous: Another player who can assimilate into town superbly as a wolf. Even though he took some heat as Little Mac, he obviously played well enough to carry his team from 14-2 all the way to a 2-2 victory. He has also popped in here and there, but with large posts which appears town. That said, a lot of it talks about previous phases, and not a whole lot of original ideas makes me see it as fluff.
Voting pattern: Red Blaster, DFR
If DFR is the wolf, he's getting bussed a fair bit by his partner. The Red Blaster vote is... interesting though. Especially considering he was mentioned by no one else as a lynch.



This all does assume that DFR is indeed a wolf, but he's the likely candidate. Plus, as bad as this sounds, we would still have one more lynch today if DFR is indeed a town.


Again, seer, check tiloco tonight. We need all the help we can get.