TWG Turbo V: No One Pretends to be the Seer Game Thread - Page 16

**Precarious** · 10-2-2016, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

Our cop doesn't die before day 2

That suggests that there is value to everyone pretending to be the seer. It actually worked in that regard.

**danceflashrevo** · 10-2-2016, 01:39 PM

i wanna see more james may action

**AragakiAyase** · 10-2-2016, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

AA why do you think haku died?

I have no idea

The one thing that made me back off him at EOD was when he said "if you want to lynch me I'll out now" which made me think I might be pushing on the cop, so I stopped

But idk why he died, I assume it was a looking for the cop cause he didn't have townreads

**AragakiAyase** · 10-2-2016, 01:46 PM

Also if I am the seer then precarious is green

**Precarious** · 10-2-2016, 01:48 PM

The way I see it, there are several possible reasons Haku could have died.

1. Host RNG after wolves are inactive during the night. This is very unlikely, as the player base was completely around at EoD.

2. Wolf RNG. Pretty much indistinguishable from (1.), other than greater implied activity. This would suggest a paranoid wolf team that wants to avoid motivational backtracking.

3. Haku was seen as a threat. Given that Haku was under some suspicion himself, was part of the D1 mislynch, and wasn't quite as active as normal, this seems unlikely, although it's possible that Haku said something at some point that the wolves perceived as a threat.

4. Misdirection. Killing Haku would result in the town making associations that target other town or divert attention away from wolves. Without having reread, this doesn't seem super likely since Haku was again sort of all over the place.

5. Wolves thought Haku was the seer. This seems most likely to me, since Haku was acting a little strangely on D1, and it fits a logical priority for the wolves.

***

While (5.) seems most likely, (3.) and (4.) are worth investigating.

**MixMasterLar** · 10-2-2016, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Precarious

I still feel like there's a wolf between Shadow and Juckter. I lean toward Shadow as the wolf, but that whole exchange just felt off somehow.

Do you still feel this way?

Quote:

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

why aryxi, he's felt really pure to me this game

I guess I was too focused on Shado to reply to this but
You realize Aryxi has been sheeping the whole game, right?
Not saying he's scum but wouldn't really defend him either

Quote:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

aa what's your lynch pool? i feel like i can trust you in this game

Quote:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

idk you feel town to me

haku's just playing so... filtered and then... just awkward

Quote:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

you and wolfe have both felt awkward to me this game, i'm indecisive, i trust aa's judgement. i also wanted to hear more about his feelings on piling on wolfe

Ok
What are these post? Why AA? Besides call everyone null and repeatedly ask everyone for lynch targets I don't see him doing anything worthy of gaining trust.
I mean, now that he was right about Shado that looks good, but I that wasn't the case when these where posted.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

that's a good point, but it's really just a gut feeling, and he's one of my townreads

and I don't particularly like either of the inactives, especially in the little time they've been back

the main argument about shado is that he "lied" about his experience, but it's not even clear to what extent the lie is present (he says he hasn't had much experience in forums, maybe he has a lot of experience IRL) and I feel like this point is easily addressed if he can come back

meawhile james comes back and piggybacks off of precarious

dfr says he trusts me for no apparent reason

Quote:

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

you know what

james may

It bothers me while, AA does lampshade that DFR trusting him out of no where is weird, he quickly decides James May is the lynch to go for. I would have found DFR more wolfy consider James is, at worst, posting that "pure" style of posting that AA liked about Aryxi eariler.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Precarious

He piggybacks off of me in defense of Shadow by taking the juckter vote instead. To me, that suggests a possible wolfteam of Shadow and James, which makes voting James first kind of weird to me.

To me, the biggest thing about the experience issue was when a past post with epicmafia was mentioned. That suggests a level of online awareness.

ShadoWolfe

While Shado is known to be an epicmafia member, no one called the site by name and no one quoted such a post.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

finally

Haku wasn't that annoying

**MixMasterLar** · 10-2-2016, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

Our cop doesn't die before day 2

Oh shit that's right sorry I'm new at this
If I am seer, Jucktel is town
Go ahead and get that out there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

i wanna see more james may action

Oh?
He was active at EoD more then a few people. Why him?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Precarious

The way I see it, there are several possible reasons Haku could have died.

1. Host RNG after wolves are inactive during the night. This is very unlikely, as the player base was completely around at EoD.

2. Wolf RNG. Pretty much indistinguishable from (1.), other than greater implied activity. This would suggest a paranoid wolf team that wants to avoid motivational backtracking.

3. Haku was seen as a threat. Given that Haku was under some suspicion himself, was part of the D1 mislynch, and wasn't quite as active as normal, this seems unlikely, although it's possible that Haku said something at some point that the wolves perceived as a threat.

4. Misdirection. Killing Haku would result in the town making associations that target other town or divert attention away from wolves. Without having reread, this doesn't seem super likely since Haku was again sort of all over the place.

5. Wolves thought Haku was the seer. This seems most likely to me, since Haku was acting a little strangely on D1, and it fits a logical priority for the wolves.

***

While (5.) seems most likely, (3.) and (4.) are worth investigating.

You're over thinking it

He threatened to out himself, of course they thought he was seer.

R.E. Aryxi · 10-2-2016, 02:03 PM

Okay I just woke up, gonna get myself caught up

**MixMasterLar** · 10-2-2016, 02:06 PM

Hey AA

What would your response be if I said according to the Post Theory, there's a confirmed wolf between us?

I mean, I don't feel like that's worth a vote atm but this would be the first time since I've kept up with it that Commentrics was wrong

Isn't it fascinating?

Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Code:

Who Posted?
Total Posts: 152
User Name	Posts
AragakiAyase	30
MixMasterLar	26
ShadoWolfe	25
Hakulyte	18
juckter1	11
Precarious	11
R.E. Aryxi	11
James May	9
danceflashrevo	7

**danceflashrevo** · 10-2-2016, 02:14 PM

aa

idk how i'm gonna pull this off but i think you might actually be wolf.

**danceflashrevo** · 10-2-2016, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Hey AA

What would your response be if I said according to the Post Theory, there's a confirmed wolf between us?

I mean, I don't feel like that's worth a vote atm but this would be the first time since I've kept up with it that Commentrics was wrong

Isn't it fascinating?

i don't think active post count is indicative of role, absence of post count however

R.E. Aryxi · 10-2-2016, 02:18 PM

If i'm seer then AA is town

**danceflashrevo** · 10-2-2016, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

He threatened to out himself, of course they thought he was seer.

tbf threatening to out is also a wolfy thing to do to save themselves for one more day, plus he said that in the midst of self destructing, i don't think he was gonna be in danger of a lynch that day as traction was wolfe sided.

R.E. Aryxi · 10-2-2016, 02:20 PM

I feel like a wolf may have just been sitting back and watching how D1 unfolded.. James May if you could post a bit more that would be helpful.

**MixMasterLar** · 10-2-2016, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

aa

idk how i'm gonna pull this off but i think you might actually be wolf.

Explain this

**danceflashrevo** · 10-2-2016, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by R.E. Aryxi

If i'm seer then AA is town

don't do this to me

**MixMasterLar** · 10-2-2016, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

i don't think active post count is indicative of role, absence of post count however

Yeah yeah

Again, if wrong, it'll be the first time

**MixMasterLar** · 10-2-2016, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

tbf threatening to out is also a wolfy thing to do to save themselves for one more day, plus he said that in the midst of self destructing, i don't think he was gonna be in danger of a lynch that day as traction was wolfe sided.

Wolves would know he wasn't a wolf and would assume he meant seer.

R.E. Aryxi · 10-2-2016, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

don't do this to me

Post wasn't there when I checked

**danceflashrevo** · 10-2-2016, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Explain this

i think aa was one of the only ones that actually believed haku was the seer. i don't think haku's threat was very convincing, and i didn't feel like it was convincing to other people. i certainly wasn't convinced. it's very weak and i'm gonna reread the thread looking at this in my mind but i see it more than james may rn

i'm probably gonna get torched for this anyways lul

10-2-2016, 01:39 PM	#302
danceflashrevo scumfan is scared of aa Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 488	Re: TWG Turbo V: No One Pretends to be the Seer Game Thread i wanna see more james may action __________________ Why are you here?

10-2-2016, 01:46 PM	#304
AragakiAyase Waifus Join Date: Apr 2015 Age: 27 Posts: 961	Re: TWG Turbo V: No One Pretends to be the Seer Game Thread Also if I am the seer then precarious is green __________________ pikakirby123 reincarnated

10-2-2016, 01:48 PM	#305
Precarious Unacceptable Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 208	Re: TWG Turbo V: No One Pretends to be the Seer Game Thread The way I see it, there are several possible reasons Haku could have died. 1. Host RNG after wolves are inactive during the night. This is very unlikely, as the player base was completely around at EoD. 2. Wolf RNG. Pretty much indistinguishable from (1.), other than greater implied activity. This would suggest a paranoid wolf team that wants to avoid motivational backtracking. 3. Haku was seen as a threat. Given that Haku was under some suspicion himself, was part of the D1 mislynch, and wasn't quite as active as normal, this seems unlikely, although it's possible that Haku said something at some point that the wolves perceived as a threat. 4. Misdirection. Killing Haku would result in the town making associations that target other town or divert attention away from wolves. Without having reread, this doesn't seem super likely since Haku was again sort of all over the place. 5. Wolves thought Haku was the seer. This seems most likely to me, since Haku was acting a little strangely on D1, and it fits a logical priority for the wolves. *** While (5.) seems most likely, (3.) and (4.) are worth investigating.

10-2-2016, 02:14 PM	#310
danceflashrevo scumfan is scared of aa Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 488	Re: TWG Turbo V: No One Pretends to be the Seer Game Thread aa idk how i'm gonna pull this off but i think you might actually be wolf. __________________ Why are you here?

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