08-8-2008, 12:43 PM
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#221 | |
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FFR Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Illinois, U.S.
Age: 32
Posts: 1,163
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Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread
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EDIT: holy hell Quad wasn't banned when I posted that. I go back to the previous page and he's banned. :-/ |
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08-8-2008, 12:45 PM
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#222 | |
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FFR Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Retired in the distant land of Canadia
Posts: 1,613
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Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread
Yeah, just refreshed and he's banned...damn.
P.S. I'll go out on a limb and guess 65 % as a split average of both 80 % and 50 %, but I'm pretty sure I'm missing proportionality between the split. Then again, I don't think I'll ever figure out if I was right or not...
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Last edited by x After Dawn x; 08-8-2008 at 12:54 PM.. |
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08-8-2008, 12:46 PM
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#223 |
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FFR Player
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: monteal
Age: 36
Posts: 188
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Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread
well there is nothing telling you if in the previous day it was snowing or not so I averaged out the probability of if it was snowing or if it was sunny.
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08-8-2008, 01:15 PM
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#224 |
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FFR Player
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 13
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Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread
Say I reword the problem:
On the FFR island, weather is either sunny or snowy, and follows these heuristics: If today is snowy, the chance of snow tomorrow is 99.999999999%. If it's sunny today, the chance of snow tomorrow is 0.0000000001%. So if it snowed today, what's the probability that it snowed yesterday? I mean you're not going to say it was with 50% chance that it snowed yesterday. Odds are it was much higher, because you're MUCH, MUCH more likely to get a snowy day from a snowy day than a snowy day from a sunny day. Because the current-state events are DEPENDENT on past-state events, they are *not* independent events, and therefore you have to take into account that today's weather could have been an outcome from either past event. Simply taking an average of the two isn't the correct way to do it. |
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08-8-2008, 07:07 PM
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#225 | |
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FFR Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Retired in the distant land of Canadia
Posts: 1,613
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Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread
Your question states that there are percentages for "snow tomorrow", but they do not show the alternative weather for the other remaining percentage(s). Based on this data, it's impossible to answer the question because if today was snowy and the chance of snow tomorrow was 99.9 % (I'm rounding it down), I do not know what will happen in the other 0.01 % (which means it could be rainy, or something that the question does not state). The same thing goes for the other part of the question; if it was sunny today, and if the probability of snow the next day is 0.01 %, then I do not know what will happen in the other 99.9 %, which could hold data that was needed in order to answer the question properly.
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08-8-2008, 10:32 PM
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#226 |
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FFR Player
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: it's a mystery oooo
Posts: 3,221
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Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread
I'm getting 38.46% for the original one.
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08-12-2008, 02:03 AM
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#227 |
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FFR Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2007
Age: 31
Posts: 377
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Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread
10%
Can't even think straight though. So that's probably wrong. |
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08-12-2008, 02:47 AM
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#228 |
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FFR Player
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Oregon
Age: 33
Posts: 168
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Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread
Funny because somehow I got 90%?
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