TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[StoicRoivaS]

@ Wolves: ROFL.

Edit @ Tass/Ap, and a thanks to Kilga for being able to multiply: I think I understand now. I was calculating the odds that one person was guarded where as you two are calculating the odds that any person is guarded, with tass multiplying wrong. I think that still more than deserves the appology that I promised. Sorry.

@ Afro: Apparently you're far too shortsighted to understand anything at all. Nevermind.

@ Tass/Everyone: Please don't misunderstand Tass's comments on overall game day progression with respect to the vigi and guards and wolfings and everything. Tass is saying that when the wolves screw up, aka tonight, we can screw up, aka vigi and human, and not be put behind. He is not saying that there is no risk to vigi'ing someone. I know that for some of you (yes, some, not most, because you're all dumb) this doesn't need to be said, but for the people who feel all fuzzy when mighty Tass says something reassuring, please don't misunderstand.

@ Kefit: Um, hi?!

@ Blah/Tass/Ap: DIE WOLVES!!!!

@ Kilga: Thanks for stacking the teams

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

It's time to play ODDSMAKERS

I have been asked by Stoic to assume all of the following for this exercise:

- There are 3 wolves remaining
- The wolves will attack a human
- Everyone will vote to guard themselves

First, let's define our events.

A: Event that a given individual is attacked by a wolf.
B: Event that a given individual's lottery pick wins.

Let's go back to Night 2, since debating guard probability during the Day is dumb because you're going to vote someone off before it even matters. You have 14 players. Assuming 3 to be wolves, that leaves 11 humans. The wolves will kill a human, giving them 11 targets. This means the odds of any individual human getting attacked (Event A) are 1/11. Now, as for the lottery, if everyone picks themselves, then the odds of any individual player getting guarded (Event B) are 1/14.

Now, the probability of both of these things happening for one individual player, or P(A|¯|B) (please pretend that's a union symbol, I can't find it on the character map >_>), is simply (1/11)*(1/14), or 1/154, because the two events are statistically independent. However, that's not what's being asked. We're looking for the odds that a successful guard occurs. In this case, we turn to conditional probability, where we want the odds of a player getting guarded given they were attacked, or P(B|A). Since these two events are independent, by the law of independence (I think; it might've been some other law, I don't have my book handy), P(B|A) = P(B), and thus the odds of a successful guard occuring are much better (for the humans, anyway) at 1/14.

You can observe the independent nature of the two events simply by taking them for what they are. Two events A and B are independent if A's success or failure does not affect B's chances of success, and B's success or failure does not affect A's chances of success. Looking at the actions being performed, the kill choice is not going to change based on the winning lottery number (since no one, including the wolves, is told who won), and the winning lottery number is not going to change based on the kill choice (since I'm leaving it up to AIM dice rolls and AIM doesn't care who's getting killed).

(Side note: because of the nature of independence, you will note that even including the possibility that the wolves may kill one of their own does not change the odds of a successful guard from 1/14.)

Hope that clears things up.

[Wilkin]

Day 2 observations:

1) Absence. Since Thursday night, I've been away from any computer, and thus unable to actually read what happened until now. As well as that, I never got to send in a lottery pick, though an extra one in there wouldn't have been too good for Kefit anyway.

2) MW analogy. It was meant mainly as "trust a guard like you would a seer'd human." The math I threw in there was done rather quickly, and I believe pretty accurate, given the circumstances. Give or take a couple of percentages, the message still comes across.

3) Kefit. Seems like the wolves aren't as "low-risk" as some threw around on Day 1. I've completely forgot Kefit was in the game, as I believe he's only made one post (maybe two?) that I can remember. As far as picks on him go, however, it would make sense since he is regarded as one of the better players, and with no solid decision on pooling votes and whatnot yet, it doesn't surprise me if he got two or three votes to his name (14% - 21% chance of guard; not too shabby for one person).

4) Sending Cypher picks. One big problem I see with this is the chance of having one of the assignments for three or four votes going to a wolf (depending on the circumstances and the people), bringing up two situations:

a) Taking those three to four votes out of play, which, along with the wolf votes not counting, would give the humans only seven votes out of the ten remaining humans after today (assuming no wolves are lynched by tonight).

And

b) Here's a situation. Tps wasn't a wolf, and the lynchee today isn't either. We all decide to give our picks to Cypher, and he gives us all assignments for the night. Wolf X is assigned to Wolf Y, but Wolves Y or Z aren't. Thus, Wolf Y has at least two more votes on him by humans. Noticing this, Wolves Y and Z also pick Wolf Y, giving Y 5 votes (out of thirteen) for a guard. This amounts to at least 38% of the votes. Especially with Kefit's guard today (and the Vigi able to use his powers without major consequence), the wolves might be crazy enough to take that chance and wolf Y.


Those situations have a minimal chance of occurring EXACTLY like that, but it's still a noticable possibility. Of course, you'd have to factor in the fact that Afro would still vote for whoever he wanted, along with anyone else who disagrees with the idea. I, personally, would like the picks to be left to the person, as it still leaves open the one obstacle the wolves can never overcome: the unknown. There would be no patterns to find, no people (purposely) left unguarded, etc. If we had been assigned to people last night, and Kefit wasn't one of them, he'd be dead today.

I'm for keeping the unknown.

[Tasselfoot]

nobody is in favor of cypher giving us who to guard... because of the stuff you listed. which is all stuff I listed right after it was suggested.

what we ARE in favor of is giving cypher OUR picks from the past. the data could prove useful, and it has zero downside. especially helpful is knowing who guarded kefit.

[FishFishRevolution]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

ps - Fish

^.^ <3

[JurseyRider734]

I uh...sort of understand what Kilga posted. I got sort of lost on the 2nd paragraph. But what's the point of it? I mean...you're just telling us to guard ourselves for the rest of the game?

[Omeganitros]

Naw, he's just sayin'. You know, for sayin's sake.

[Tasselfoot]

Jurs. Kilga is the host. He doesn't tell us anything.

All he did was resolve the mathematical conflict that Stoic had... aka, Stoic's math was wrong, and it took Kilga's post to make him realize it. Despite myself and ap telling him otherwise.

[JurseyRider734]

Oh. Right.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

nobody is in favor of cypher giving us who to guard... because of the stuff you listed. which is all stuff I listed right after it was suggested.

what we ARE in favor of is giving cypher OUR picks from the past. the data could prove useful, and it has zero downside. especially helpful is knowing who guarded kefit.

Actually, stoic is in favor of it. That's what he meant by saying I'm "too shortsighted." Basically, he couldn't disprove anything I said about it being stupid and instead decided to attempt to insult me without real reason.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that stoic is in the classic position of a player pushing for a plan which gains the humans nothing and the wolves everything by giving broken logic saying that it helps humans.

you're just telling us to guard ourselves for the rest of the game?

Unless you're a player who is likely to get wolfed, this is stupid. Everyone who may get wolfed, feel free to vote for yourself, but people who are basically guaranteed not to get wolfed (ie lower tier people who are never really wolfed, people who have a look which indicates they may be lynched in the following days) should vote to guard someone else. This will drastically increase the chances of guardings (would another guard even offset endgame?).

[Tasselfoot]

If we got a 2nd guard, it would push back the endgame a day. That is assuming the vigi did not kill anyone.

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

My NUMBERZ post was made purely to clear up a probability discussion that I had been asked to clear up. It has no real bearing on the game as it contains no new information (aside from some odds that you guys could've worked out on your own).

[Omeganitros]

Soooo....


Let's....Start.....Talking.....

[blahblah18]

logic.. why kefit.. what leaps to mind are 2 possibilities and I know this is sowing the seeds of mistrust but its how i feel... I see 2 options

1. Myself AP and Tass all look suspicious enough that the thought is we can be killed during the day which is of course vastly beneficial so they wanted ot take Kefit out in case he wakes up and decides to start playing because he is very intelligent and really worth taking out.

2. Kefit is a wolf, realized he had no time to play, hence his practically not posting at all during day 1 and saying hey guys i've really got no time commitment, let's all vote me for guarding and give it a whirl.

None of these solutions really work for me, but if anyone else has any other ideas....

[FishFishRevolution]

I called Tass today, and am more confident than ever about my stance on his humanity.

[StoicRoivaS]

I'm only in favor of the idea if enough people were, which is quite obviously an outstanding no. Afro got the shortsighted comment because his post back on page 11 was basically reitterating a plan that I thought was agreed upon as bad, for the resons he points out, again. Hence, a different idea, and more importantly, an unknown idea, but whatever. No one cares so I'm dropping it, as I said I would.

Blah, what is the purpose of your #1 exactly. If the choice is to wolf someone who may start playing [well] or pick between 3 players who are already playing [well], what would ever be the reason to go with the first choice, especially when the other 3 players are generally "better" players than the first in question. To me, #1 is kind of null and void. #2 seems a little more likely but still quite out there. The situation I find most likely would be the one in which the wolves go for the best safe kill. Yourself, Tass, and ap will probably be getting a few [guard] votes each until you're no longer alive, but it seems that kefit may get slightly less, although still some. This is my impression at least. So it makes far more sense to think that the wolves went for a slightly safer kill of a still very skilled player. Of course this should be quite obvious, but I felt it strange that you failed to mention this idea, as it seems the most likely by far, to me. Take care.

[aperson]

Okay since no one else is standing up for anything and making everything blatantly clear.


HEY FAGETS, SEND YOUR GUARD PICKS FROM LAST NIGHT TO CYPHERTOORIMA

Also, I talked to blah about this, and I'm really not sure about the kefit as a wolf stance. Really, I know he'd be the kind to try something like this if he wasn't interested in the game... But honestly I don't think he'd go for it with the odds that low. Besides that, then, why did the wolves go for him and why did he have guard votes on him?

Oh, and while we're at it, I'm feeling somewhat confident about this one:
Fish

[Tasselfoot]

******.... at least spell correctly in your insults.



Also... WHERE IS EVERYONE? Can we hear from Flypie, Jurs, TPS, Guido, etc etc etc?

[StoicRoivaS]

Tps, lol.

[JurseyRider734]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

******.... at least spell correctly in your insults.



Also... WHERE IS EVERYONE? Can we hear from Flypie, Jurs, TPS, Guido, etc etc etc?

Uh...I usually can't get on the computer until around 2 or 3 pm on most days for now. I was up late last night and I checked the thread, and nothing new has been posted since then from what I can tell. I sent Cypher my guard pick and that's it. What do you want me to do, copy and paste other peoples' posts to make my own? The activity here isn't really what I would call "bustling", and no one's IM'd me or anything like that.