TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[Charu]

*Cough*

In the off distance chance Zenith is actually the SK, then I'll stop playing TWG here for a good while. I'm pretty damn confident in both mellon and Zenith that I don't really need to "re-examine" as you put it.

It's clear cut what needs to be done.

[_Zenith_]

Charu please. You always are voice of reason of not jumping the gun, and I fear right now you are under confirmation bias.

Please reconsider rereading all of us. I actually need to isolate Raeko and I should reread Pre and answer some things.

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Precarious

Only you can know whether that's actually true, because the rest of us can't know if you're actually a bodyguard or an asceticizer.

If I was the asceticizer, I would certainly be voting right now, don't you think?

[Charu]

Hell, you would think I would've actually hit someone LAST PHASE, if I was the asceticizer, no?

Roundbox was such an obvious night kill.

[Charu]

Even better... YOU WOULD THINK I would even hit someone... last night.

[Charu]

MML was clearly going to die, as was seen posted by literally everyone reading him town

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Charu

In the off distance chance Zenith is actually the SK, then I'll stop playing TWG here for a good while.

Please don't do that. Every mafia/TWG community needs a player like you to keep a thread moving in the early game. It would just help if you had some capacity for self-reflection later on.

[Charu]

Oh gee golly, wanna know who wasn't reading MML as clear cut town?

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Precarious

XelNya

Xel takes a non-serious but aggressive tone to start. I still have no idea how to interpret Xel's opening day; it's just so aggressively unhelpful in most places that it kind of defies alignment. There are some little digs here and there at Haku that really irritated Haku. Then was an actual content post (#312 - a few reads) hidden in the middle of the random stuff. I don't really care for all that, because it creates the illusion of activity without having to commit to reads or game ideas, but some people play that way. The thing is, every now and then on D0, there are little snippets where Xel actually plays or makes game related observations. The whole thing is weird.

Anyway, Xel continues this way for a while. There are some observations on posts he likes, but the opinions feel wrong. On the other hand, he stays on Haku consistently. It's obvious that there's real thinking, regardless of alignment, going on behind the nonsense posting, but it's difficult to get at it. Given that, though, I really don't like the D0 vote on Freezin, because it has nothing to support it.



I understand coming down on one side or the other, but come on.

On the second day, Xel's approached changed entirely. He challenged Shado on Shado's bad suggestion of shooting Charu, and started replying to and examining more game stuff. There was a little bit of stuff that looked like buddying with Charu, but that's inevitable in a game based around conversation. #1223 actually contains a lot of real thought and an interesting approach to the Shado shot situation. On reconsideration, though, I'm not so sure what to think of Xel's initial self-inclusion in the shot pool, given that it's almost a dare (and one that's unlikely to be taken up as a result). Didn't fully agree with Zenith on not lynching newcomers, but didn't fully disagree either. Was extremely pissed off for like six straight posts, I think from suspicion? (starting at #1389) Memes coming back too. Goes after Mellon in #1564. Ended up voting DFR in the DFR/Juckter split.

Started off with some mechanical speculation abouts the second night's two kills, then did this scummy feeling thing where he asked about who Charu guarded (Charu responded that he wasn't guarding anyone). Acknowledged a weak EoD. Mixed in images and sarcasm with real arguments, sort of a blend of the first two days. Did not like psycho. Made a case against psycho as the serial killer, based on towniness. Not super convincing to me, but at the very least it was an effort post.

Today, acknowledged that the night kills look bad, but argued that he'd have never done them as a result. That invites a WIFOM argument, which set off a small war of words over terminology. Sort of suspects me for SK, but doesn't see how the third night kills would make sense if I was (this is funny to me, because the third night is the one that most closely approximates what I would have done if I was). At the same time, NK analysis does require real thought, and some of it outside the box. Got a little snippy while under pressure, although most people do.

If Mellon and Zenith are the SK pool, then Xel and MML are the wolf pool, and MML looks a lot townier than Xel. The thing is, on its face, there's not a whole lot to pin on Xel. The meme-y, off topic stuff is hard to parse, and there's some real thought in places. I'm not sure how I feel about the early interactions with Haku; I can't tell if its team distancing, real pressure, or somewhere in between. Charu's point that Xel has been reluctant to name a wolf candidate is an interesting one, because I can see that bending in both directions: it could speak to a guilty conscience, or it could speak to real confusion. And then there was the self-shot gambit. Ultimately, I lean toward Xel being the wolf from the remaining player base, but I don't really feel great about it. I'd rather lynch Mellon today, but that's unlikely to happen.

Precarious.

[Charu]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Charu please. You always are voice of reason of not jumping the gun, and I fear right now you are under confirmation bias.

Please reconsider rereading all of us. I actually need to isolate Raeko and I should reread Pre and answer some things.

There is no voice of reason for this person. It's pretty clear cut. You pleading only reaffirms my town grip on you, by the way.

Also notice I'm NOT voting? Of course I want mellon's input. It wouldn't be TWG until we got another person barging at Precarious, eh?

[Charu]

PS: She's not here. News flash, I would imagine the last remaining SK would be attentive for this final phase.

If she were here, I would've been more hesitant.

But she's not, now is she?

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Charu

PS: She's not here. News flash, I would imagine the last remaining SK would be attentive for this final phase.

If she were here, I would've been more hesitant.

But she's not, now is she?

No, she's not. But that's kind of her meta, isn't it?

[Precarious]

You're forcing the situation to fit your preconceptions. The funny thing is, I'm not even sure you realize this. But regardless, just indulge me. Do a little review work between now and the end of the day.

[Charu]

Tell you what, Precarious...



If I let this phase go to no lynch, who would kill in the night? Tell me personally, it won't change a thing what I think, so you might as well tell me.

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Precarious

You're forcing the situation to fit your preconceptions. The funny thing is, I'm not even sure you realize this. But regardless, just indulge me. Do a little review work between now and the end of the day.

I just did, guess you missed my post where I dumped all your silly mega posts.

[Charu]

But if you want more, lets go then

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Charu

I just did, guess you missed my post where I dumped all your silly mega posts.

You just did, that's for sure. The thing is, you're not responding to the sentence you think you are. Again, you're forcing the situation to fit your preconceptions. As a result, you consider posting a bunch of my quotes research. I expect more on me, and more on everyone else.

[Charu]

Hey Pre, remember that time you said "Well of course the most obvious town died Night 1 because he was portraying town to everyone!"

Originally Posted by Precarious

Gradiant being killed isn't particularly surprising; if everyone was town reading him, then that would limit the pool of possible non-town players. inD being killed is a little bit stranger, because inD wasn't being town read to the degree Graidant was, and wasn't able to control conversations the same way. Since it's overwhelmingly unlikely that either death was vig-caused, it's likely that Gradiant was killed by the wolves and inD by the SK, since the SK would have less reason to target obvious town. inD's posts therefore may reveal something useful on reinspection.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Night kills analysis:

Gradiant and inD were killed.

Gradiant was probably killed by the wolves. He was active and being strongly town read, and accordingly had outsized influence on how the game was proceeding. I'd argue that he was a large part of why Freezin was lynched, but actually looking at the other three Freezin votes there was the chaotic Xel, Shado countervoting, and Charu throwing a Freezin vote at the last second, so I'm not sure that's actually the case. We also know his choice was misplaced. Regardless, his probing seemed generally effective as a discussion tool, and he ability to win arguments made him potentially dangerous to any wolves that might happen to get caught up with him.

That leaves inD to have been killed by the SK (the reverse is obviously possible, but is less likely). It's highly unlikely that a vig would have shot on the first night, plus there were only two kills, so we know there was no bodyguard block. An asceticizer hypothetically could have resulted in a two kill night with three attacks, but things breaking that way are profoundly unlikely. There has also been no vig claim.

If inD was targeted by the SK, there are several possible reasons. The serial killer needs to survive to win, so the wolves and the cop present an existential threat to the SK. Depending on which flavor of SK we got, one or the other might prove more threatening immediately, but there's a chance the SK believed inD was a wolf or the cop. I'd say a wolf-read was more likely, so revisiting who suspected inD may be relevant. The reverse is also true; lynching is equally a threat to the SK, so anyone inD suspected may have been inclined to target him (n.b. inD was voting juckter). I find this less likely as one vote is hardly enough to cause a lynch and there's the risk of the kill being connected (as it is here), but it's still possible.

It seems unlikely to me that the SK would have killed randomly; they have a narrower path to victory. The wolves also are unlikely to have killed randomly; while there's deceptive value in a group RNG-killing, it's wasteful in a game with power roles, and Gradiant seems a very unlikely chance target.

***

It warrants revisiting who was suspicious of inD, although an SK might also have hidden that to avoid being linked. Juckter-inD interactions also should be looked at.

I do, and wow, who would say such a thing and then say that the "SK" was wolf hunting?

Precarious, the SK of course.

[Charu]

Hey Pre, remember that time when shadow claimed Vigi and you believed him immediately?

Originally Posted by Precarious

I see Shado has hard claimed vig. That's interesting.

Originally Posted by Precarious

ShadoWolfe - Upgraded to null. Regardless of the sincerity of the vig claim, they've played...unburdened today so far. Feels tonally different. It would be a poor decision to lynch at this stage anyway, given the claim.

I do.

Didn't push Shadow, put him at Null, then put him back in his town pile because no one countered.

[Charu]

Hey Pre, remember that time you didn't like shadow not wanting to share who he's shooting that one night when FFR loaded slow?

Originally Posted by Precarious

I don't really like Shado not confirming who he's going to shoot. It opens the door for hedging tomorrow if he's not actually a vig. I understand being away, but it's not a good situation.

It's hard not to read mellon's enthusiasm for lynching DBP (pre-replacement, obviously) through the lens of self-preservation. Mellon has been under fire for their own inactivity, so pointing to the easiest target, even if that target is worthy of suspicion, is a little overly convenient.

I'm curious to see how psycho responds in DBP's place.

I'm really not liking the inactives. I was already sort of suspicious of botchi, who's disappeared entirely, and I'm increasingly bothered by juckter. Juckter, when he has posted, has typically tended toward analysis and content. but somewhat vaguely. His style looks worse by its absence. It's not hard to associate the inactivity with being overly careful to avoid traceable reads and content.

Juckter gets my vote for the moment at least.

I do