TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by Charu

That's a shitty argument. As an SK, that's what you would want.

But I digress, my town read of you still stems from when you replaced in. It's never going to change, so you got nothing to fear.

Remember, how can Pre as an SK wind up here, as you out it?

[_Zenith_]

Pre sounding so robotic throws me off Everytime however, didn't raeko have a mean slip last phase? Or I skimmed something about a slip and it might've not been her?

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Pre sounding so robotic throws me off Everytime however, didn't raeko have a mean slip last phase? Or I skimmed something about a slip and it might've not been her?

Mellon basically said last phase that she hadn't even realized there was a serial killer for sure, and believed we were all simply assuming it based on the multiple night kills. It's hard to believe that an actual serial killer would have made that claim, in part because it should sound so false on its face.

[Charu]

Well sure, let me summarize Pre's gameplay last phase. It's actually pretty simple, watch me just destroy him right here and right now.

Ready?

Originally Posted by Precarious

You said yourself we're in a potential MiLo situation (depending on how the nightkills would resolve). I think voting without giving any thought isn't a particularly good idea at this point.



You'll have to explain this one to me.

I'm still skeptical of Zodiac, but not the same extent to be honest. If anything, yesterday serves as a reminder that mistakes aren't always indicative of anti-town status. Re-reads will be up tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Both the wolf and SK managed to hit town players and avoid doubling up on the same player. This isn't necessarily the best result for them, since as the player population dwindles, they need to worry about each other as well as the town.

You seem like you've been leading somewhere with night kills analysis, but you refuse to actually say something. Please do.

***



1. The wolf and SK won't necessarily target people that suspect them, as that's easily traceable. Of course that kind of thinking inevitably leads to WIFOM, but

2. While DFR is no longer in the game, you are, so roundbox's suspicion remains at least somewhat relevant.

***

Impression reads, before I actually iso. I don't know if the difference between how I feel now and how I'll feel after closer re-reads is relevant, but hey.

Zenith: Performance has been consistent. I don't remember any posts that really deviated from his basic way of playing, other than shit posting that story at the beginning of the third day. I found an illogical point in his thinking yesterday, which was never addressed, but to be fair it was a relatively minor point. Mostly smooth tone, other than our conflict yesterday.

Charu: Town mechanically. His actual play has been trending down (going from the huge page posts of the first day to actively refusing to answer questions today), but that has no bearing on his alignment. I just wish he'd say more, since he's clearly capable of it.

Prec: Town. Feel free to ask me whatever.

MML: Has been improving the towniness of his play since entering; his starting posts were overly antagonistic and argued with claimed PRs, but has made more thoughtful posts since, and pushes people to do things. I like that he challenged Charu to interrogate him.

Xel: Xel started out the game with a bunch of nonsense that never made sense to me (from the perspective of any alignment). Since then, he's turned to a more conventional style of play (the usual cocktail of reads and thoughts and basic interactions), although I frequently disagree with the conclusions. Overall it feels a little superficial, but not overly so.

Mellon: Extremely quiet and low on activity for most of the game, then made several good posts near the end of the second day and the beginning of the third. Those posts make me hesitant to wolf/sk-read mellon, but the lack of activity is not a good look, since it makes him less likely to be night-attacked. That he pushed DFR without being unfair about it felt positive. Not thrilled about how quiet he's been since.

***

Based purely on how I feel about their overall games, I'd lean toward Xel and Mellon as anti-town, but it's more complicated than that now. Since only one wolf is left, yesterday and today they've essentially functioned as a second SK. There's no one for them to protect or distance from, and it's as important for them as for us to find their counterpart (perhaps even moreso, since if the wolf or the SK nightkills the other, the killed one loses the game). I'm going to review the whole game and see what turns up. I'd recommend that everyone do the same.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Or, I wish you'd say more because your current style of play isn't productive. I ask you for elaboration, you say "Maybe later." When you're asked "Charu whatta ya thoughts on it?", you answer "No." You say you want to lynch Mellon, who you seem convinced is a wolf, yet you do nothing to persuade anyone else to follow along. I'm not even going to say you'd look scummy as hell if you weren't cleared, because your current game is so overtly anti-town that no actual non-town role would try it.

But this is a team game. Even if whatever assumptions you have (and aren't sharing) are perfectly correct, down to the smallest detail, they mean nothing if you don't share them with us. They provide no avenues for further conversation, they do nothing to pressure players or get others to trip up or join in, they do nothing to actually get players lynched. They exist in your head alone, and offer nothing to the game state.

You seem suspicious of me. Fine. Then share those suspicions. Because if it gets other people talking, then maybe I'll see something they say that rings false. You're certainly correct about one thing: we are facing a potential MiLo situation. If we mislynch and the remaining wolf and SK kill town again tonight, then we're looking at 1:1:1 tomorrow. It's critical that we get either the wolf or the SK today, and your play isn't contributing.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Mellon or Zenith. If you're absolutely insistent on one, Mellon.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Xel.

Of course, I'll probably have different answers after I reread, but I assume you're going somewhere with this. I hope you are anyway.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Back.



I'm not entirely sure what sort of point you think you've made. In fact, I'm not even completely sure what you're trying to say here.

Regarding MML, I like the fact that he was pushing you to actually contribute and answer questions. I also liked the fact that he invited you to interrogate him. An anti-town player (and it should be noted that from the third day forward wolf and SK should be theoretically indistinguishable in thread, as the wolf characteristics that separated them are functionally gone) under these circumstances will want to avoid being lynched and avoid being too town read (which could lead to a nightkill), and the best way to do that is to avoid interactions that could affect their leaning strongly one way or the other.

MML is my strongest town read at the moment. That doesn't mean I'm right. By all means, examine him. Examine everybody. But my opinion is that he reads town, so when you ask me for for my gut impressions on who's who, he's the one who I'm least inclined to suspect.

Xel is my strongest wolf read not because of reads but because of interactions, combined with process of elimination. No one screams "wolf" at me. DFR did yesterday, and we saw how that turned out. But the interactions with Haku always struck me as unnecessary. That's not a particularly big ding, but going completely from memory, that stuck out in my mind. When I finish my rereads, perhaps my opinions will change. But for asking me on the spot what I thought, that's what I thought.

Originally Posted by Precarious

As for Zenith and Mellon as SK candidates, my gut reactions are this: Zenith still profiles as somewhat suspicious to me given that he never addressed my concerns yesterday. They haven't changed. I find Mellon more suspicious, though, because his behavior fits the SK profile in a general way. He has been super quiet all game, only emerging when necessary, and that's an SK trait. That he's made some good posts in the second half of the game is an obvious consideration, but it's worth noting that both wolf and SK will in fact be striving to do that: they're as incentivized to lynch the other as we are.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Hold on a second.

This is an involved Mellon?

Originally Posted by Precarious

The point I harped on was relatively minor. Zenith made two statements that didn't fit together. I made a case from it. More concerning to me was that he never responded to it. I don't like that because it compromises the goal of conversation, and it suggests he doesn't have a good answer. So the response (or rather, lack thereof) is more problematic than the initial inconsistency.

Even that, truth be told, isn't a huge flag. But there are no huge flags for anyone here. Any case is going to require at least something of a leap. This is the most problematic thing I've identified re: Zenith so far; as I recall, the rest of his gameplay doesn't stand out in my memory, and has generally had a town tenor. I'll see if that's any different once I've finished full game review.

Put simply, no one should have come off as overwhelmingly suspicious in those first reads, because they were just up-to-the-minute impressions. Charu wanted who I was feeling, so I went with the best of bad options.

Originally Posted by Precarious

I'm here for the moment. I'm not sure how long I'll be in, but I'll check back in several more times before I go to bed at minimum.

Let me review what you've said today again and I'll see if I have any questions for you. A more thorough questioning is going to have wait until isos and early game review are done.

Originally Posted by Precarious

So, I browsed through your posts today. I mostly like what I see. You're pressuring people to do stuff, and you're sharing your own reads. You're also calling out Charu on his attitude, which needs to be done whether he likes it or not.

I did take issue with one thing you said.




You were talking to Charu here. You say the other two are much more worth a look at the moment. But if the group you're excluding is Mellon, Xel, and myself, then you're talking about Zenith and...? You can't be talking about Charu, because you're talking to him and he's mechanically cleared anyway. So are you referring to yourself?

Originally Posted by Precarious

There's no way it's happening tonight.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Sure. I have not been shy about pursuing my leads and sharing my opinions, whatever people make of them. I've tried to present a reason for everything I've done. Mellon has been extremely inactive for much of the game, and I maintain that's a useful strategy for a serial killer in this environment. The more vocal you are, the more likely you are to be either town-read strongly and gain influence in thread (and thus become a potential night target), or scum-read strongly (and be potentially lynched).

And with that, I'm going to bed. I'd encourage everyone to do what I'm going to do tomorrow and review the game thoroughly.

Originally Posted by Precarious

I've reread broadly, and am iso'ing each player in full. I'll do a post for each person I guess.

Mellon

Day 1 was better for Mellon than I remembered, in the sense that she was providing actual thoughts and responding to people. There was also a little more interaction than I recalled early (mainly responses to Gradiant, and a brief back-and-forth with Shado). However, there was some internal inconsistency.





It was in vogue on D0 to criticize my posts as robotic, so this feels a little sheepish, but the real issue here is the sudden confidence in her own mechanics knowledge, which belies her earlier post. By her logic, mechanical clarification should be of value to prevent wolfish manipulation, so the drive-by post also quoted feels very opportunistic.

After this, the amount of substance in Mellon's posts dropped substantially. There were a couple non-game related asides, a few low content observations, a defensive bit here or there. The attempts at reading players and framing the game sort of dried up. At that point, Mellon started arguing with me. It seems that we were sort of talking past each other by interpreting what we were saying differently. Mellon was fairly aggressive in responding to me.

After that, Mellon largely fell off the face of the earth. Mellon did not vote on D0, and has no posts recorded for 10-9-16. Later clarification was that the weekend was busy for her. Caught up, backed up hard when asked about some D0 posts by DFR. Lightly jumped on a DBP bandwagon (this was prior to DBP being replaced), and when challenged for doing so, pointed to DBP's sheeping Charu at D0 EoD. This bothers me a little, since Mellon didn't cast a vote at all. This more or less represents Mellon's nadir; a large block of inactivity, followed by a few very questionable posts.

After this, Mellon did finally provide some reads, although several players were missing from consideration (Botchi, roundbox, myself). On review, these reads definitely seem reasonable; there are no obvious overreaches. Updated the reads post with the missing players later; tone did not change, reads continue to be reasonable in terms of support. Called out Juckter for his inactivity, which looks good in hindsight, although again is interesting in light of her own inactivity. Followed up on Juckter's response too. Knowing what we know now, this interaction is definitely not wolf-looking. This is also borne out by a Juckter vote.

Stronger play from Mellon continues at the beginning of the third day, pushing DFR with meaningful EoD vote analysis. Follow up conversation is pretty balanced and fair too. After this, though, Mellon sort of sits back again; most posts are short and at best marginally related to the game. Does return to poke a hole in something DFR said, then votes DFR.

Two posts today TOTAL. Nothing unreasonable about those posts (first is updated reads, second is answering a Charu question for clarification), but the apparent lack of interest in what's going down is somewhat concerning.

Overall, it's very hard to read Mellon as a wolf, both by tone and approach to the game, and especially given interactions with Juckter. We now know DFR was not a wolf, so a wolf-Mellon would likely have not broken in that direction on D1.

SK is a very real possibility, though, because there are peaks and valleys to her performance, not so much in quality, as in basic attendance to the thread. There are also occasional signs of opportunism, and a seeming unwillingness to lead cases. VT is also possible given her play, but I think SK may be more likely.

Originally Posted by Precarious

More posts on the way, but they'll take a little while obviously.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Zenith

Zenith replaced R.E. Aryxi. Aryxi said basically nothing before having to leave, so unlike the other replacement players, Zenith's record basically stands on its own.

Zenith's first posts were pretty casual while getting up to speed (although Zenith joined on D0, it was relatively late in the day and there had already been a lot of posts in that time). His early posts do seem tonally different than what came later, but given these circumstances that's hardly surprising.

I had been giving Zenith a pass for not voting on D0 given the late start, but given how quickly he got up to speed, and given this post



it's a little harder to justify. Having said that, he expressly said when he took a break and it was before catching fully up, so again it wasn't unreasonable to withhold a vote.

Seems slightly skeptical of Haku early, which is a good look in retrospect.

Does seem to have a tendency to just dismiss stuff he doesn't agree with, which isn't a great trait.

Provided initial reads on the second day. A lot of "needs more info" type assessments, but on largely inactive players, so that's not entirely unwarranted. Still would have liked to have seen more expressed thoughts (but again to be fair he was very good with live-commenting his catch up).

Some suspicion of Shado, although everyone was suspicious of Shado prior to the vig claim. Definitely didn't like having to read through all the posts (several mentions of "keyboard warriors"). I, uh, empathize with that right now. Town read Xel early, but was strongly null by this point. Further suspicion of Haku. Some slight defensiveness when Shado was talking about shooting half the player base. Strong post against Haku. Didn't like Shado either, but clarified later that he was leaning town on him.

Quick sort of off-topic question for Zenith here: when you say you're "weary," are you trying to say "wary" or are you saying you're tired of dealing with the person? Because I've seen it in a couple places and the context isn't totally clear to me.

Anyway, more reads, they're generally reasonable. Was VERY adamant about not lynching new replacements, which is admirable although not really alignment-indicative. Voted Juckter. Switched to MML after his opening. Mixed feelings on Xel. Has a clear vote pool of Haku, Juckter, and MML at this stage, which looks really good as far as anti-wolf goes; on the other hand, mentioned Gradiant in a way that seems almost suspicious (#1609, could be misreading), which seems strange given Gradiant was already dead.

Final vote is on Juckter. Moves more pro- on Mellon.

Weird start to third day, with posting a long copy pasta thing. Out of character for Zenith to that point. Starts suspecting me; I've still never received clear reasoning on that. Really doesn't like MML this game ("MML in this single game you've made me hate you as a person now.") Won't answer questions as a result I guess? Quality of posting drops dramatically on the third day; long absences (by his standards), refuses to answer questions from multiple people. Claimed to have forgotten EoD was coming. When the vote came down to MML vs DFR, he went with MML, which is pretty consistent given his attitude toward MML during the game.

Didn't like Xel early today, based at least partially on night results. Pushed Xel some. More posts that are pretty pro-voting Xel. Finally voted Xel completely after Xel didn't know what WIFOM was, no posts since.

Zenith started out very strong; he caught up relatively quickly, and made his points and reads, interacted with people, and generally played aggressively but reasonably. His play since then hasn't been as good; D2 was scratchy, he doesn't like Xel today but hasn't been huge on detail, and there have been a couple long-ish absences (which are more notable given his pace). Overall, though, his tone is consistent and his reasoning seems genuine. Combined with his D1 actions, there's virtually no way he's a wolf. SK remains on the table, given his unwillingness to address topics directed to him (this happened several times, in several different ways), but Mellon profiles as a stronger SK candidate due to activity.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Slow loading FFR is making iso'ing hundreds of posts torturous.

Originally Posted by Precarious

XelNya

Xel takes a non-serious but aggressive tone to start. I still have no idea how to interpret Xel's opening day; it's just so aggressively unhelpful in most places that it kind of defies alignment. There are some little digs here and there at Haku that really irritated Haku. Then was an actual content post (#312 - a few reads) hidden in the middle of the random stuff. I don't really care for all that, because it creates the illusion of activity without having to commit to reads or game ideas, but some people play that way. The thing is, every now and then on D0, there are little snippets where Xel actually plays or makes game related observations. The whole thing is weird.

Anyway, Xel continues this way for a while. There are some observations on posts he likes, but the opinions feel wrong. On the other hand, he stays on Haku consistently. It's obvious that there's real thinking, regardless of alignment, going on behind the nonsense posting, but it's difficult to get at it. Given that, though, I really don't like the D0 vote on Freezin, because it has nothing to support it.



I understand coming down on one side or the other, but come on.

On the second day, Xel's approached changed entirely. He challenged Shado on Shado's bad suggestion of shooting Charu, and started replying to and examining more game stuff. There was a little bit of stuff that looked like buddying with Charu, but that's inevitable in a game based around conversation. #1223 actually contains a lot of real thought and an interesting approach to the Shado shot situation. On reconsideration, though, I'm not so sure what to think of Xel's initial self-inclusion in the shot pool, given that it's almost a dare (and one that's unlikely to be taken up as a result). Didn't fully agree with Zenith on not lynching newcomers, but didn't fully disagree either. Was extremely pissed off for like six straight posts, I think from suspicion? (starting at #1389) Memes coming back too. Goes after Mellon in #1564. Ended up voting DFR in the DFR/Juckter split.

Started off with some mechanical speculation abouts the second night's two kills, then did this scummy feeling thing where he asked about who Charu guarded (Charu responded that he wasn't guarding anyone). Acknowledged a weak EoD. Mixed in images and sarcasm with real arguments, sort of a blend of the first two days. Did not like psycho. Made a case against psycho as the serial killer, based on towniness. Not super convincing to me, but at the very least it was an effort post.

Today, acknowledged that the night kills look bad, but argued that he'd have never done them as a result. That invites a WIFOM argument, which set off a small war of words over terminology. Sort of suspects me for SK, but doesn't see how the third night kills would make sense if I was (this is funny to me, because the third night is the one that most closely approximates what I would have done if I was). At the same time, NK analysis does require real thought, and some of it outside the box. Got a little snippy while under pressure, although most people do.

If Mellon and Zenith are the SK pool, then Xel and MML are the wolf pool, and MML looks a lot townier than Xel. The thing is, on its face, there's not a whole lot to pin on Xel. The meme-y, off topic stuff is hard to parse, and there's some real thought in places. I'm not sure how I feel about the early interactions with Haku; I can't tell if its team distancing, real pressure, or somewhere in between. Charu's point that Xel has been reluctant to name a wolf candidate is an interesting one, because I can see that bending in both directions: it could speak to a guilty conscience, or it could speak to real confusion. And then there was the self-shot gambit. Ultimately, I lean toward Xel being the wolf from the remaining player base, but I don't really feel great about it. I'd rather lynch Mellon today, but that's unlikely to happen.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Well this is something.

Originally Posted by Precarious

I hate to admit it, but I kind of agree with Charu's assessment of this.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Ugh, I'm considering suggesting a huge gamble that's probably not worth it, and part of it depends on something I don't want to discuss mechanically, because discussing it could help either anti-town faction.

So let me ask: is everyone here pretty convinced that Xel is the wolf? Because I'm going to suggest something crazy if there's any doubt.

Originally Posted by Precarious

That Mellon isn't the SK. Which makes it Zenith. Or maybe even you. I don't fucking know anymore.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Okay, fine, gamble time.

Precarious.

I'm town, but I feel like the odds are stacked against me tomorrow. Whether we can afford that is ultimately going to come down to luck partially. But if we lynch correctly today, it'll be 4:1 going into the night. Presumably it will be 3:1 tomorrow, and a mislynch of me then makes it 2:1. Even if Charu's WIFOM bodyguard vs. asceticizer works, we'd still have to guess correctly the next day.

If we mislynch me here, it'll be 3:1:1. There's a chance this ends the game for town, because if both anti-town hit town, it's 1:1:1 tomorrow. But there's also a chance we insta-win if the wolf and SK hit each other, and the SK isn't bulletproof. There's also the possibility of one killing the other and one killing town (2:1), or even the SK killing town and the wolf hitting bulletproof SK (leading to 2:1:1 tomorrow). I'll take what amounts to night RNG over this situation, because this way at least clears my reads and actions if we go to 2:1 or 2:1:1.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Fine. Unvote.

But if you're inclined to lynch me, do it now.

Originally Posted by Precarious

That was fine as long as Mellon was the SK, but now my reads are shot to shit. Xel's disappearance makes it's pretty likely that they're the wolf, but I don't know whether the SK is you or Zenith, and this situation is too readily manipulated right now.

Originally Posted by Precarious

If you're going to flip onto me, do it now. I'll vote Xel at :00.

Originally Posted by Precarious

If you're the SK, I find it hilarious that you don't even understand what I was saying.

Originally Posted by Precarious

Xel

Notice something?

He never pushed Xel. He never went and attacked Xel. He was always more focused on labeling the other possible SK. He kept saying Xel was the wolf, which means HE KNEW. He knew that Xel was the last wolf, he KNEW that he had to keep him alive, HE KNEW that if Xel didn't die, his shit was going to be bombed.

So what does he do? Tries to pin others for SK. He makes mega posts upon mega posts about the possibility that it's either Zenith or Mellon.

In reality, he's grasping hard. He knows he's beat if Xel dies, so he tries his best to go with what I said.

I SAID I WANTED MELLON LYNCHED

What does he do?

Tries to go after Mellon with a very weak ass attempt with my hard town read on Zenith.

[Charu]

Conclusion: He's the SK. He always WAS the SK. And I knew he was the SK ever since last phase.

[Charu]

AKA, Precarious...



My plan worked perfectly. Even more so since mellon made an absolute dumb tell.

[Charu]

Get bird'd up

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Charu

Because you know I'm never going to believe the mellon one. Face it, it's over.

The whole reason I did that thing at the end of yesterday was to try to save you from yourself. I'll do this day like I always do, and see what I can find when I reread Mellon and Zenith. Regardless of what you think of me, I urge you to actually put in some work and review both. Even if I get mislynched, there's a chance we get to tomorrow depending on your actual role.

[Charu]

You're an idiot, if it goes to tomorrow, SK wins.

[Charu]

Face it, you're done, burnt to a golden crisp.

[Charu]

Do you smell that?

[Charu]

It's your flames, you're hot dude. YOU'RE RED HOT

[MixMasterLar]

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Charu

He never pushed Xel. He never went and attacked Xel. He was always more focused on labeling the other possible SK. He kept saying Xel was the wolf, which means HE KNEW. He knew that Xel was the last wolf, he KNEW that he had to keep him alive, HE KNEW that if Xel didn't die, his shit was going to be bombed.

Someday, you're going to need to learn that reexamination is a good thing and overconfidence isn't.

I didn't know Xel was the wolf for sure. I did feel it made the most sense out of the remaining players, and Xel's absence after momentum started building certainly suggested it. But no, I wasn't sure. This would hold true regardless of whether I'm town or not, because the serial killer wouldn't know anyone else's alignment either.

[Charu]

Hey, does anyone want to know something cool?

[Charu]

Want to know what's absolutely cool, down to the ground, cold as ice?

[Charu]

Precarious

[Charu]

And do you also want to know what's really interesting about Precarious BEING HERE RIGHT NOW?

[Charu]

THE FACT HE'S ACTUALLY HERE, HEE HEE HEE

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Charu

You're an idiot, if it goes to tomorrow, SK wins.

Only you can know whether that's actually true, because the rest of us can't know if you're actually a bodyguard or an asceticizer.