TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[MixMasterLar]

So here's my TL;DR conclusions

Zenith is not a wolf, and I think he is not likely SK (not compared to the others anyway).
Precarious is not a wolf, but as Xel pointed out likely SK
Raeko is not likely a wolf, but possible SK
Xel is the most likely remaining wolf, and I never did disprove he wasn't SK although I doubt it. I think he was truly hunting the SK in his post above.



I think Xel is most likely scum from this batch of people after having given this serious thought.

I will be here for EoD but know that I pushed back alot of things I may not be here for that much of it. I'll aim for being here by 9 though. Nevertheless I will park a vote now that will be subject to change.

Xelnya


For the record if I have to chose between Pre and Raeko for the Sk, that'll be a hard choice but unless Raeko decides to make one hell of a post I'd go with her being the SK right now. I don't have to make that decision right now though, so I won't.

[Charu]

My fucking god dudes, wordy much?

[Charu]

I almost don't want to read through this shit, just because I see a Xel vote at the end after Xel made a mega post himself.

It's obnoxious, and Precarious hasn't delivered either, but at this point, I really don't give a flying fuck.

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by Precarious

Mellon has been extremely inactive for much of the game, and I maintain that's a useful strategy for a serial killer in this environment. The more vocal you are, the more likely you are to be either town-read strongly and gain influence in thread (and thus become a potential night target), or scum-read strongly (and be potentially lynched).

I can understand your train of thought with this. I don't post as much as some people do in TWG. I'm not the sort of player who posts a ton in a chatty manor, I prefer to analyze everything carefully. Sometimes it can be hard for me to keep up with the game and I need a bit of time to take it in and think about it before posting

I also did underestimate the time commitment a bit. I've had IRL stuff to do and haven't been devoting as much time as I probably should to the game. This is my fault, I can't really make an excuse for it to be honest.

However I don't necessarily agree that the serial killer would play in that way. I can understand using that strategy, but people usually target low activity players and use this reasoning for finding them suspicious. The SK would probably be aware of this and try their best to appear active since inactive people are almost always targeted.

Since they are one-shot bulletproof, I don't think they would be as worried about being night killed as you might think. They would need to be shot twice, which the wolves might be unlikely to do if there were other targets. Or shot once and then have a successful train lead by a wolf who attempted to shoot them. If they appeared very town this would be unlikely to happen.

so I think it is in the SK's best interest to appear as town as possible, not somewhere in the middle. Also, then they would appear as the scummiest player after they got the last wolf out which wouldn't be a good long-term strategy.

The SK has a huge interest in hunting for wolves. The wolves pose a big threat to the SK, so they have also legitimately been hunting for them. That is why I think the SK is someone who appeared to be very pro-town.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

While I'm ok with this post I feel like your tunneling hard on Xel and not giving other peeps due attention.

Enjoy your hike, but when you get back I'd love to see you get into both Zenith and Precarious post in this manner. If you would be so kind to indulge.

Don't let me down.

I wasn't trying to tunnel on Xel. I only mentioned that point about Xel because it jumped out at me at the time.

I am considering everyone carefully. I'll get to your request now, and I'll even throw in an analysis of you just for fun :P

[Charu]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Since they are one-shot bulletproof, I don't think they would be as worried about being night killed as you might think. They would need to be shot twice, which the wolves might be unlikely to do if there were other targets. Or shot once and then have a successful train lead by a wolf who attempted to shoot them. If they appeared very town this would be unlikely to happen.

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Since they are one-shot bulletproof, I don't think...

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Since they are one-shot bulletproof

Huh...

[Charu]

Now why on earth would you say that, mellon?

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

Based off of W15.

3rd Party:
1 Investigative-immune or 1-shot Bulletproof SK

?????

[mellonxcollie]

Oh, I misunderstood the first post. I really don't even know how

For some reason I thought it meant just investigative immune person?

And there was a chance of there not being an SK

Like: chance of there being an investigative immune person OR chance of there being 1-shot bulltetproof SK

I thought we assumed there was an SK because of the night kills.

Wow that was dumb tho eh

[Charu]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Oh, I misunderstood the first post. I really don't even know how

For some reason I thought it meant just investigative immune person?

And there was a chance of there not being an SK

Like: chance of there being an investigative immune person OR chance of there being 1-shot bulltetproof SK

I thought we assumed there was an SK because of the night kills.

Wow that was dumb tho eh

...W-what...

[Charu]

Are you saying, for this entire game, you thought it was either there was or NO SK?

wat

[Precarious]

I've reread broadly, and am iso'ing each player in full. I'll do a post for each person I guess.

Mellon

Day 1 was better for Mellon than I remembered, in the sense that she was providing actual thoughts and responding to people. There was also a little more interaction than I recalled early (mainly responses to Gradiant, and a brief back-and-forth with Shado). However, there was some internal inconsistency.

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

I can sometimes be confused by mechanics too but the solution isn't to just ignore the mechanics of the game and hope for the best. Give them some thought, ask questions if you have to and try your best to figure it out. If players don't understand the game properly that leaves a lot of room for wolves to manipulate them. So it's not good for town to have clueless people on the team.

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Robotic posts like your's don't actually really help. we can all figure the mechanics out on our own thank you. What helps is saying your personal opinions about things and your reads

It was in vogue on D0 to criticize my posts as robotic, so this feels a little sheepish, but the real issue here is the sudden confidence in her own mechanics knowledge, which belies her earlier post. By her logic, mechanical clarification should be of value to prevent wolfish manipulation, so the drive-by post also quoted feels very opportunistic.

After this, the amount of substance in Mellon's posts dropped substantially. There were a couple non-game related asides, a few low content observations, a defensive bit here or there. The attempts at reading players and framing the game sort of dried up. At that point, Mellon started arguing with me. It seems that we were sort of talking past each other by interpreting what we were saying differently. Mellon was fairly aggressive in responding to me.

After that, Mellon largely fell off the face of the earth. Mellon did not vote on D0, and has no posts recorded for 10-9-16. Later clarification was that the weekend was busy for her. Caught up, backed up hard when asked about some D0 posts by DFR. Lightly jumped on a DBP bandwagon (this was prior to DBP being replaced), and when challenged for doing so, pointed to DBP's sheeping Charu at D0 EoD. This bothers me a little, since Mellon didn't cast a vote at all. This more or less represents Mellon's nadir; a large block of inactivity, followed by a few very questionable posts.

After this, Mellon did finally provide some reads, although several players were missing from consideration (Botchi, roundbox, myself). On review, these reads definitely seem reasonable; there are no obvious overreaches. Updated the reads post with the missing players later; tone did not change, reads continue to be reasonable in terms of support. Called out Juckter for his inactivity, which looks good in hindsight, although again is interesting in light of her own inactivity. Followed up on Juckter's response too. Knowing what we know now, this interaction is definitely not wolf-looking. This is also borne out by a Juckter vote.

Stronger play from Mellon continues at the beginning of the third day, pushing DFR with meaningful EoD vote analysis. Follow up conversation is pretty balanced and fair too. After this, though, Mellon sort of sits back again; most posts are short and at best marginally related to the game. Does return to poke a hole in something DFR said, then votes DFR.

Two posts today TOTAL. Nothing unreasonable about those posts (first is updated reads, second is answering a Charu question for clarification), but the apparent lack of interest in what's going down is somewhat concerning.

Overall, it's very hard to read Mellon as a wolf, both by tone and approach to the game, and especially given interactions with Juckter. We now know DFR was not a wolf, so a wolf-Mellon would likely have not broken in that direction on D1.

SK is a very real possibility, though, because there are peaks and valleys to her performance, not so much in quality, as in basic attendance to the thread. There are also occasional signs of opportunism, and a seeming unwillingness to lead cases. VT is also possible given her play, but I think SK may be more likely.

[Precarious]

More posts on the way, but they'll take a little while obviously.

[mellonxcollie]

OK wow. I was really fucking sick and stoned on cold/cold meds when I signed up for and started this game !!! Looking at the first post now it seems very clear, but I can't even get into that mindset I was in where I was sick. I honestly don't even know how what I thought really makes any sense now that I think about it so clearly, but I just kind of looked at the setup and accepted it as that was that

I've played games where there was a chance of SK being in the setup or not, and you never really know until you can deduce it from night kills or whatever

I don't know why I thought that in this game. the way it was typed made me think there was a chance of another role, OR if there was an SK it was a bullet-proof SK

So once there were two night kills I assumed there was probably an SK, then after the vigi was killed and two more night kills it was confirmed there was definitely an SK. I was kind of ignoring the possibility at the beginning of the game because it was harder to think about

So I've also been playing this game assuming the SK is bullet proof, which makes me question my thinking entirely

[AragakiAyase]

Votes from post 2083 to post 2213
Night in 3:43:51
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 2 -- XelNya -- _Zenith_ (10), MixMasterLar (31)
• 4 -- not voting -- Charu (53), mellonxcollie (6), Precarious (15), XelNya (14)

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

So here's my TL;DR conclusions

Zenith is not a wolf, and I think he is not likely SK (not compared to the others anyway).
Precarious is not a wolf, but as Xel pointed out likely SK
Raeko is not likely a wolf, but possible SK
Xel is the most likely remaining wolf, and I never did disprove he wasn't SK although I doubt it. I think he was truly hunting the SK in his post above.



I think Xel is most likely scum from this batch of people after having given this serious thought.

I will be here for EoD but know that I pushed back alot of things I may not be here for that much of it. I'll aim for being here by 9 though. Nevertheless I will park a vote now that will be subject to change.

Xelnya


For the record if I have to chose between Pre and Raeko for the Sk, that'll be a hard choice but unless Raeko decides to make one hell of a post I'd go with her being the SK right now. I don't have to make that decision right now though, so I won't.

Well I guess you like losing then.

[XelNya]

Someone explain how my disregard of giving a fuck over mediocre terms as basic entry level responses is able to lean me.

I don't get it.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by XelNya

Well I guess you like losing then.

I've been popping in and out to look for messages specifically coming from you and a message like this, and the one after, will never help clear you. In fact, things like these shows you are quite literally trying to WIFOM in a near-childish manner (kind of like "I know you are but what am I?"). Cut the shit Xel.

I'm not ever moving my vote on you this phase because you haven't shown change or improvement from this style of proceeding this phase, and this alongside the general feeling you're anti-town really cements the idea to me.

[Precarious]

Zenith

Zenith replaced R.E. Aryxi. Aryxi said basically nothing before having to leave, so unlike the other replacement players, Zenith's record basically stands on its own.

Zenith's first posts were pretty casual while getting up to speed (although Zenith joined on D0, it was relatively late in the day and there had already been a lot of posts in that time). His early posts do seem tonally different than what came later, but given these circumstances that's hardly surprising.

I had been giving Zenith a pass for not voting on D0 given the late start, but given how quickly he got up to speed, and given this post

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Okay so if I was in this game at start, I would've voted you here.

it's a little harder to justify. Having said that, he expressly said when he took a break and it was before catching fully up, so again it wasn't unreasonable to withhold a vote.

Seems slightly skeptical of Haku early, which is a good look in retrospect.

Does seem to have a tendency to just dismiss stuff he doesn't agree with, which isn't a great trait.

Provided initial reads on the second day. A lot of "needs more info" type assessments, but on largely inactive players, so that's not entirely unwarranted. Still would have liked to have seen more expressed thoughts (but again to be fair he was very good with live-commenting his catch up).

Some suspicion of Shado, although everyone was suspicious of Shado prior to the vig claim. Definitely didn't like having to read through all the posts (several mentions of "keyboard warriors"). I, uh, empathize with that right now. Town read Xel early, but was strongly null by this point. Further suspicion of Haku. Some slight defensiveness when Shado was talking about shooting half the player base. Strong post against Haku. Didn't like Shado either, but clarified later that he was leaning town on him.

Quick sort of off-topic question for Zenith here: when you say you're "weary," are you trying to say "wary" or are you saying you're tired of dealing with the person? Because I've seen it in a couple places and the context isn't totally clear to me.

Anyway, more reads, they're generally reasonable. Was VERY adamant about not lynching new replacements, which is admirable although not really alignment-indicative. Voted Juckter. Switched to MML after his opening. Mixed feelings on Xel. Has a clear vote pool of Haku, Juckter, and MML at this stage, which looks really good as far as anti-wolf goes; on the other hand, mentioned Gradiant in a way that seems almost suspicious (#1609, could be misreading), which seems strange given Gradiant was already dead.

Final vote is on Juckter. Moves more pro- on Mellon.

Weird start to third day, with posting a long copy pasta thing. Out of character for Zenith to that point. Starts suspecting me; I've still never received clear reasoning on that. Really doesn't like MML this game ("MML in this single game you've made me hate you as a person now.") Won't answer questions as a result I guess? Quality of posting drops dramatically on the third day; long absences (by his standards), refuses to answer questions from multiple people. Claimed to have forgotten EoD was coming. When the vote came down to MML vs DFR, he went with MML, which is pretty consistent given his attitude toward MML during the game.

Didn't like Xel early today, based at least partially on night results. Pushed Xel some. More posts that are pretty pro-voting Xel. Finally voted Xel completely after Xel didn't know what WIFOM was, no posts since.

Zenith started out very strong; he caught up relatively quickly, and made his points and reads, interacted with people, and generally played aggressively but reasonably. His play since then hasn't been as good; D2 was scratchy, he doesn't like Xel today but hasn't been huge on detail, and there have been a couple long-ish absences (which are more notable given his pace). Overall, though, his tone is consistent and his reasoning seems genuine. Combined with his D1 actions, there's virtually no way he's a wolf. SK remains on the table, given his unwillingness to address topics directed to him (this happened several times, in several different ways), but Mellon profiles as a stronger SK candidate due to activity.

[Precarious]

Slow loading FFR is making iso'ing hundreds of posts torturous.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

I've been popping in and out to look for messages specifically coming from you and a message like this, and the one after, will never help clear you. In fact, things like these shows you are quite literally trying to WIFOM in a near-childish manner (kind of like "I know you are but what am I?"). Cut the shit Xel.

I'm not ever moving my vote on you this phase because you haven't shown change or improvement from this style of proceeding this phase, and this alongside the general feeling you're anti-town really cements the idea to me.

Obviously you guys are reading what you want to see if you're go after me for posting about fucking termonology.

Yeah ok. I doubt you even read my post on precarious frankly cause if you had, you'd have responded.

My style needs no improvement. It's not even an antitown tone, especially with your best reference to it apperantly being a post ABOUT FUCKING TERMONOLOGY.

Stop throw the gane you useless cunt. Your saying my to e is bad but your ass ain't done SHIT today.

So fuck you impending "oh nice return vote" response.

zenith

Fucking idiot.