TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

[Celirra]

Having more """chances""" implies relatively balanced probability which we do not necessarily have
Two of our three chances are decided for us, and one is contingent on a single person which also is not a great chance
I would rather have a full chance properly than a couple fixed choice chances

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

Having more """chances""" implies relatively balanced probability which we do not necessarily have
Two of our three chances are decided for us, and one is contingent on a single person which also is not a great chance
I would rather have a full chance properly than a couple fixed choice chances

this is a full chance plus whatever else you want to call those

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

this is a full chance plus whatever else you want to call those

That implies freezin is a full chance if tps is zzzzzz, which I wouldn't say is a full chance

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

That implies freezin is a full chance if tps is zzzzzz, which I wouldn't say is a full chance

bruh

this robs the wolves of a nightkill by giving town 2 more chances at killing wolves (about that many, at least) than town normally has

call it whatever you will but you're 100000% doing it wrong if you don't take the extra chance (or whatever the fuck you want to call it) to kill wolves

[Xiz]

hey cel do you still doubt sunfan

[Xiz]

*as confirmed

[Celirra]

yes and this debacle t b h isnt helping

[Celirra]

Similar vibes to freezin in the fe game
Even if freezin was somewhat confirmed he was fishier than a wharf

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Celirra

Similar vibes to freezin in the fe game
Even if freezin was somewhat confirmed he was fishier than a wharf

this is like when I was talking to you in the survivor game where I would talk about who we should lynch and why and you didn't want to listen to a word I said

I don't know what to say to you, and I'm not sure we're going to be able to see eye-to-eye here.

This is something I have learned from years of playing this stupid game; if you have more chances/opportunities/whatever to kill wolves than you normally would, you take it.

One scenario involves a modkill on a specific player (yes, I know that we can't control this), a blue being lynched but getting a chance to shoot (this counts because he could be lying and also because it resets what would ordinarily be an even number of players back to an odd number) and his shot can kinda-sorta be counted as an extra lynch (if you want to count it as less than a lynch, whatever, a town is looking at the remaining players and killing one of them, and its pretty good for town regardless of whatever terminology you want to give it).

This far, far, far, far, far outweighs the alternative world of yes, having an extra day phase, but having less whatevers to try and kill wolves with.

[the sun fan]

im going to class I will be back later

[Xiz]

imma talk this out maybe this will help me with greg

lets say im shit at this game and hes a wolf, and he pulled a fast one
I feel like his partners would only be funny/blind here, for what appears to be his willingness to kill anyone else or be like "sure i guess they can die"
because town greg here doesn't confirm two people like this in this situation, one sure but two nah.

If this is the case, freezin dies in the night and takes someone out, having a fake confirmed go hard saying funny/freezin are town, freezin wouldnt kill one of them, thus creating a misslynch.

Here are freezin's reads, which perfectly line up here:

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Town:

Blind

Townlean:

Sunfan
Funny

Let's say we misslynch today if fake greg hard protects his teammates like this, down to 8. Freezin dies, 7, he kills outside of funny/blind 6. That's gg, we loose. (Also it explains why funny is suddenly going after me today, since it's an all or nothing i feel like)

Devils advocate, lets say there is a chance that one of the two between funny/blind is town and not a wolf, then that would mean the 3rd is someone like TPS? I guess? Or prec? I don't have anything to back that up though, but someone i guess who must be then read by freezin as town so greg and whoever wouldn't have to worry about it.

If greg is a wolf here, that would make perfect sense why he would go for proving how he is town by what we thought was a DBP soft, and my initial read on it was wrong. (I looked this over to see how DBP's soft isn't greenchecking sunfan and i still see it as a greencheck on sunfan so fuck me)

However, there is one element that could make that work

This is such a fucking low % chance but what if freezin and sunfan are wolves, and the setup is really BBTTTT* - since no evidence of a SK i'm gonna assume BBTTTTT

That would mean there is a busdriver that falsely checked sunfan i guessed during n2 then, pretty much making this situation gg for us either way. There is such a fucking microscopic chance that this is real, but if it is and this is real at least i made it for this post so hello dead chat i did something right. I have no idea who the 3rd would be here, someone probably seperate who agrees with both freezin and sunfan not fully but more like, half as in "sure ill follow" and ind comes to mind but that could be wrong.


====================================

Now let's say sunfan is town here and the check is real and im not in tinfoil la la land.

1) Let's say sunfan is actually correct and blind/funny are town, and also freezin is real. For me then it's cel/ind/prec. BBKTTT* - we have a misslynch, which might be me and at least to freezin's current reads we are in a better off shape to hitting i think if he still dies in the night. If freezin doesn't die in the night and someone like funny/sun/blind dies then i think we win.

2) Sunfan is real but he is wrong on blind/funny. I think town looses, and I'm not sure if there is anything i can say for greg to change his mind. Funny would be playing a great wolf game and blind is not lol. 3rd would probably be a wild card then, i wouldn't be surprised if anyone fit in with them. If only one of them is a wolf and not the other, then i'm really lost and kinda got nothing. I'll need to think about it more.

[Xiz]

i hope my logic makes sense since nothing else has apparently to anyone

im kinda on low motivation im still tryin

[Xiz]

god i hope im right lol

[Xiz]

I feel like that there is one between blind/prec, with blind being the wolf. I don't see them being a pair at this point and I don't think prec makes that post as a bus. I've played with prec as a wolf and that's not his playstyle. I think funny also defended blind here and went against prec a bit which is interesting

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Xiz

I feel like that there is one between blind/prec, with blind being the wolf. I don't see them being a pair at this point and I don't think prec makes that post as a bus. I've played with prec as a wolf and that's not his playstyle. I think funny also defended blind here and went against prec a bit which is interesting

U said u think earlier blind is always town what changed

[the sun fan]

Xiz u spent an awful lot of time in tinfoil land there bud I'm not sure if that did u any good.

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

U said u think earlier blind is always town what changed

really?

[Xiz]

There is also a world where funny/blind are wolves and greg is town and i think we still loose if that's the case. I need to iso the posts between them to see if this could be a thing

[Xiz]

Here are all the posts between funny/blind

D1 early

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

Fg just says she's wolf, ok bye no matter what. And everything she's said is blah.

D3 early

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

Funny looks dirty with those votes now that we know dbp is town.

D3 Mid

Originally Posted by Funnygurl555

yo i havent thrown a t-force vote yet thanks blind

I excluded the first one about funny asking blind about the movie thing blind was doing

[Xiz]

okay, i've got a lot of projects to work on due soon and NEED to not come in thread for a few hours to get this done. i'll be back in a few hours.

I'mma ninja you cel # c o n v i e n e n t