TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[Charu]

I can't be stacked if that's what you're referring to, and even if I could die by stacking, that's a waste of a night kill for the two parties if we myslynch.

Unless you mean me getting lynched, but it's like... lol tier. I'm gonna assume you don't actually mean that at all.

Also, why are you focusing on Xel? Lets hear it

[_Zenith_]

With Precarious throwing stuff on Mellon, I'll say at this point my only argument would be she's playing far more involved than she ever has in a game with me (and I believe I've only played one wolf game with her and we won (dichotomy) so it isn't much substance but it's a feeling, you know?

Not that I'm going to pursue this feeling at the moment

[Charu]

Do you think maybe she's an exciting roll then?

And do you believe that her also dismissing MML as town was of consequence of her actions?

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by XelNya

Anyways, let me preface this post super hard with one important statement.

I think this post has some angle shooting in it. I note where it is rather clearly. If you don't agree with me because of that, I'm fine with that. I also accept that I could be very wrong because of it.

This post has a spoiler.
So you can't miss it.

Alright. Let's talk about DBP for a little bit.

Let's get this out the way: I think Psycho is the serial killer. Why? Not particularly because of what she's done and let me explain why.

From my POV mechanically The SK and town's interests line up until either the final wolf is alive, or till final four or so. There is zero reason at any time till immensely late game to not just play super solid town. With this in mind, denote that Psychoangel has done some of the most townie and awesome things she could since she replaced in. Is this a reason to see her as SK? No. But do I think we can just hand out town reads anymore? No as well. In fact I personally think some of the strongest towns need to be considered as the SK for this reason.

Anyways onto DBP. DBP is a player who has a notable wolf tell in how he posts. Did his day 0 contain this tell?

I think no, it didn't. Let me go over why.

His day starts off as regular shit-posting. Now DBP can roll with some shit, that's not an issue.

Then he gets in and starts ctaching up on the game. To which he makes this post:



This is a townie post. He's already jumpin' in, getting shit going.

Now let's touch on some other posts that were my tell d0 that dbp was town. I don't really wanna talk about 'em too much because I wanna go play some fire emblem. I also think we'll be able to nab the wolf pretty quickly after the SK, and I'd personally get the SK out of the way.

STRONG call ping on precarious here. Like the point of this post is to say "yeah 'kay you posted a big post, but it's just commentary, where you stand out of it?"



The strong part of this post is that he's pretty much killing Precarious. Like tbh the fact we didn't go after Precarious hard after this is kinda... Not great.

Anyways. The issue I think I remember some people had is that dbp really hard tapered off. Now I'll agree, that's kinda what his wolf tell is. The issue is that I feel his earlier push on precarious were solid enough to not throw him into the scum meta.

One more post to kinda plop DBP into my "this wasn't his scum meta" is this post. Especially with the hindsight of Haku / Juckster being actual wolves.



Scum dankpack stops posting. "Town" packback doesn't. From WHAT I RECALL the way scum packback reacts here would instead to just softly surrender. That's not what he does.

Especially when he comes back and:

Short hand is: The way dbp tapers off isn't his wolf tell, and neither is his tone all game for that matter. However, he does taper off in a way uncharacteristic of him IMHO. But when he's SK he'd play solid town because I know he's done that before. He'd just scum hunt like any other game till the end he'd be pretty fine.

Let's go to Psycho now because talking about JUST dbp isn't fair.

To short hand her entire history of this game simply: TOWNIE. AS. FUCK. With minimum lazy. Actually without dbp I probably'd have her as one of my highest town reads.

Can't say this surprises me. Or really affects what I think, but this rly could be a "oh boy what did I sign up for" post.

Not saying it is, just trying to taint your thoughts a bit. /sarcasm MML makes some comment about it being a possible "premtive defense of herself" Which I can see is a possible outcome for why that post was made.

But then.



This post.

Let's talk about this post, because it has some value, I think.

She starts with explaining why she made the post.

But my issue with this literal first sentence is...

Doesn't she already know her role by now?

"It was the fact that I came to see who I was replacing and feeling dread that it was DBP" Is written like she didn't know what her role was coming into the thread.

Now I'm NOT going to discuss what her PM is. But let me be frank: On FFR when you get asked to replace someone and you agree, you get told what their role was.

Why would you be coming into the game to see who you were replacing? Surely you knew before that first post, because you NEED to know who you're replacing's role before you can do anything in the game. And two minutes (after AA announced you were in the game) is enough time to read your role and post what you said.

NOW. I feel this is possible angle shooting to confirm what I suspected before she replaced in. (As denoted by me asking Haku, "hey did you reach the same conclusion on dbp I did?")

Do I feel the rest of her game is scum hunting? YES ABSOLUTELY. There's fucking gold mines:



I could fucking quote some posts. But there's some ups and downs and inconsistancies.



There's SO MUCH detail in this post. Compared to say:



Like I KNOW she's a busy person, doing tons of stuff, especially with two kids to take care of (I hope they're doing well btw ) but... Why not explain your town lean as well as your scum lean and help out your fellow town?

Like the ones closer to the actual EoD I understand, but not this particular one. It feels, a little bit like, you're padding your content, just like, I am padding this sentence.

Let's finally go over why I think her saying "Hey shoot haku" can't be leaned as townie.

I think Psycho was pretty sure Haku was a wolf and made a gamble. Here's why.

This particular set of posts, is totally a bussing slip on Haku's part BROUGHT TO YOU BY HINDSIGHT for being identifiable.



Oh and this is a shitty explanation.



Might be worth talking about this particular post a little, but I'm not sure if I think it's relevant or not.

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd this



annnnnnnnnnnd this



And we finally arrive at my conclusion to why this post:



Is bad, sells me that I wasn't wrong, along with all that I said.

Is the opportunistic nature of this post, given EVERYTHING I just said.

Psychoangel

Read this post Charu, this is where I'm really finding Xel to be anti-town.

[Charu]

You mean the post where Xel incorrectly interpreted Psycho's intentions?

[Charu]

So tell me this then, Zenith.

What's your opinion on the night kill.

[Charu]

Who killed who?

[_Zenith_]

SK killed roundbox imo

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Read this post Charu, this is where I'm really finding Xel to be anti-town.

I do not comprehend how this post comes off as anti town considering the work is there and I explained it very clearly and even pointed out what I felt could make me wrong, which I was.

So, what about this post precisely cements me to be antitown? I do not get it.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

SK killed roundbox imo

Also in a hypothetical world where I am the wolf in what world do I make the choice to kill psycho after that post I made. That'd be fucking retarded.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by XelNya

Also in a hypothetical world where I am the wolf in what world do I make the choice to kill psycho after that post I made. That'd be fucking retarded.

Yo sick WIFOM

[Precarious]

Back.

Originally Posted by Charu

Marvelous, now then...



What exactly about this initial read makes you say indirectly he shouldn't be considered at this very moment with my direct questions?

AAAAAND



How does this equate to you that you're pretty sure Xel is wolf with this initial read since you only left one name?

Especially with...

I'm not entirely sure what sort of point you think you've made. In fact, I'm not even completely sure what you're trying to say here.

Regarding MML, I like the fact that he was pushing you to actually contribute and answer questions. I also liked the fact that he invited you to interrogate him. An anti-town player (and it should be noted that from the third day forward wolf and SK should be theoretically indistinguishable in thread, as the wolf characteristics that separated them are functionally gone) under these circumstances will want to avoid being lynched and avoid being too town read (which could lead to a nightkill), and the best way to do that is to avoid interactions that could affect their leaning strongly one way or the other.

MML is my strongest town read at the moment. That doesn't mean I'm right. By all means, examine him. Examine everybody. But my opinion is that he reads town, so when you ask me for for my gut impressions on who's who, he's the one who I'm least inclined to suspect.

Xel is my strongest wolf read not because of reads but because of interactions, combined with process of elimination. No one screams "wolf" at me. DFR did yesterday, and we saw how that turned out. But the interactions with Haku always struck me as unnecessary. That's not a particularly big ding, but going completely from memory, that stuck out in my mind. When I finish my rereads, perhaps my opinions will change. But for asking me on the spot what I thought, that's what I thought.

[Precarious]

As for Zenith and Mellon as SK candidates, my gut reactions are this: Zenith still profiles as somewhat suspicious to me given that he never addressed my concerns yesterday. They haven't changed. I find Mellon more suspicious, though, because his behavior fits the SK profile in a general way. He has been super quiet all game, only emerging when necessary, and that's an SK trait. That he's made some good posts in the second half of the game is an obvious consideration, but it's worth noting that both wolf and SK will in fact be striving to do that: they're as incentivized to lynch the other as we are.

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

With Precarious throwing stuff on Mellon, I'll say at this point my only argument would be she's playing far more involved than she ever has in a game with me (and I believe I've only played one wolf game with her and we won (dichotomy) so it isn't much substance but it's a feeling, you know?

Not that I'm going to pursue this feeling at the moment

Hold on a second.

This is an involved Mellon?

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Yo sick WIFOM

Stop using shitty terms I don't know nor care for plz

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by XelNya

Stop using shitty terms I don't know nor care for plz

Holy shit Xel are you serious?

Xelnya

You know damn well this is garbage.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Charu

Sad that Pre only left a little bitty post and didn't talk to MML like I wanted.

Unfortunate, I expect the two of you to talk (As in both MML and Precarious are ACTIVELY in the thread) way in advance before EoD this phase. Failure to comply will result in unsatisfactory actions on Precarious.

Charu you ain't gotta pressure me to talk one-on-one with people. I know my night schedule fucks with trying to sync up with other players but I have every intention of getting ahold of him.

Originally Posted by Charu

Sounds like you're mad and you're attacking the one thing you can only attacking me about.

Is that one thing your entire gameplan this game?
Because that deserves to be fucking reviewed hardcore in postgame.

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

I think you're asking for something that I thought was possible until seeing the flips from night.

Even if you can't make the connections, I would love it if you'd humor Charu and give it a shot. Even if you write an unreadable mess of text out of it I think it's better then saying it can't be done

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Regardless, I'd rather not focus on Precarious this phase; I'm pretty certain I'm going after Xel this phase.

Don't get too hasty. Town has the time to try and figure out both scum and we should take advantage if it.

Originally Posted by XelNya

Also in a hypothetical world where I am the wolf in what world do I make the choice to kill psycho after that post I made. That'd be fucking retarded.

Not saying you did it, but let's be real for a sec: you'd think it funny as fuck.

Originally Posted by Precarious

As for Zenith and Mellon as SK candidates, my gut reactions are this: Zenith still profiles as somewhat suspicious to me given that he never addressed my concerns yesterday. They haven't changed. I find Mellon more suspicious, though, because his behavior fits the SK profile in a general way. He has been super quiet all game, only emerging when necessary, and that's an SK trait. That he's made some good posts in the second half of the game is an obvious consideration, but it's worth noting that both wolf and SK will in fact be striving to do that: they're as incentivized to lynch the other as we are.

Wait a sec here

Originally Posted by Precarious

Zenith: Performance has been consistent. I don't remember any posts that really deviated from his basic way of playing, other than shit posting that story at the beginning of the third day. I found an illogical point in his thinking yesterday, which was never addressed, but to be fair it was a relatively minor point. Mostly smooth tone, other than our conflict yesterday.

Ok Pre I didn't get that that is what you thought of Zenith when I read what you first wrote about it. I feel you need to elaborate on this point because it really seems like you didn't think that much of him but then after pressured by Charu now he's someone worth suspecting right after Raeko.

That looks like a contradiction to me. Care to explain why I might be wrong?

Originally Posted by XelNya

Stop using shitty terms I don't know nor care for plz

Man I want to say this level of anti-town refusal of teamwork is completely unacceptable

Except that Charu kind of set the bar fucking low in that regard.

But either way Google terms you don't know and start hunting scum because at this point if I had to absolutely cast a vote right this second it'll be aimed right at you; prove to me that would be a bad choice.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Xel's behaviour since the start of the day seems kind of suspicious. Honestly I fucking suck at reading Xel, so I might be completely off base here.

It seems like the mindset he has toward the night kills is too self-focused. His immediate reaction to the kills was a comment on how they made him appear, it strikes me as kind of paranoid and not the type of thought a human would have.

The progression of his posts doesn't seem really natural. He posts these posts in this order

As a human you'd think your first thought upon seeing the kills would be "oh damn my top two scum potentials are gone, i need to fucking rethink this game!". You might think about the kills implicating you if/when pressure was put onto you about it. Both of the players who were killed were being town read, it seems clear why they were killed to me. Xel automatically assuming it would implicate him makes him seem hella paranoid. It's the complete opposite to the train of thought I would have in that situation

Zenith and Precarious both seem like potential scum to me. MML seems town




Is there any reason for you suspecting me other than DFR's read? You know I want to win



What makes you think that? I am a girl btw

I'm about to go on a hike but I just wanted to throw a few of my thoughts out there. I'll be around later tonight

While I'm ok with this post I feel like your tunneling hard on Xel and not giving other peeps due attention.

Enjoy your hike, but when you get back I'd love to see you get into both Zenith and Precarious post in this manner. If you would be so kind to indulge.

Don't let me down.

[MixMasterLar]

It looks like I am the only alive player in the thread at the moment, unless the others are hiding behind those 7 guests like cowards.


Regardless, I'll be up until 6AM server time and I'll be checking in. Aim some questions at me and I'll make sure they are all answered by that time.

[Charu]

It's interesting you think my plan of action today sucks. Too bad you can't see the underlying reason.

It's okay though, babycakes. By the end of this phase I can promise the info I'm so casually forcing out by my hand is worth it.

Granted we don't myslynch of course, but that's how the cookie crumbles.