TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

[SubaruPoptart]

Originally Posted by Xiz

I want to vote Ull simply because sunfan wont vote ull for just posting roles.
DBP will show up 20m before EOD
Funny/Force I see as T/W or T/T
haku off the table, feels towny
raeko super light towny, liked the "yeah i thought the same thing" quote, felt natural
YoshL saying "nah this isnt a mindmeld" to sunfan is really towny, so they are off the table

don't really care about anyone else

ulle

I know Xiz is out of the game right now but if I were in at this point it'd make me feel real bad about Xiz.

I can understand the "super light towny" part for Raeko but as of page 12 I haven't identified much from them in terms of like, reads or any kinda prodding.
All I can remember from Raeko is them being "Jared" as of right now.

If I were outside-looking-in at FG's slot, T/T makes some sense, but with how FG was posting even I'm going like T/W would make more sense. I'm still tryna read to find her posts to see what to work with but so far first 12 pages haven't been real good for her. I'd imagine it gets better later on, however.

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I can understand the "super light towny" part for Raeko but as of page 12 I haven't identified much from them in terms of like, reads or any kinda prodding.
All I can remember from Raeko is them being "Jared" as of right now.

I literally didn't do anything up until that point is why lol

The "Jared" thing and all of the other posts that don't make any sense, I was quoting a legendary post that Tokzic made. It was a meme on here back in the day. Because we are not supposed to be "tokzic" anymore get it

[FreezinIce]

alright time to do some work

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flashflash account (5) - fatfuck42, DaBackpack, Shadow_God_10, TWGma, Ulleabhara
Ulleabhara (4) - Xiz, FreezinIce, mellonxcollie, Funnygurl555
TWGma (2) - YoshL, Hakulyte
DaBackpack (1) - the sun fan

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Not Voting (1): flashflash account

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I moved Ulli's vote to FFA because for all intents and purposes thats where it was.

Now,for a wagon analysis you'd ideally like to have 1 red flip to really start being able to draw conclusions. The fact that both the top wagons are definitively town is also not great. So this is more to organize my thoughts than anything.

You have 2 major groups that emerge from this EoD:

>People who have took a side on FFA vs Ulli
>People who stayed out of it for various reasons

from a wolfs pov as a human vs human interaction with no stakes in the outcome, i would bet the safer play would be to stay out compared to weigh in.

So i think that there is likely a wolf in the following group of people who stayed out of the EoD clusterfuck (Sunfan, YoshiL, Haku).

I think law of averages puts a wolf in the other group as well, so the trick now is finding which of those votes looks the most out of place.

(20 Mins later)

Well i reread eod a few times and theres and this is what i have

Good:

>DBP had an actual reason for his vote that made sense
>Xiz had an actual reason for his vote that made sense
>Mellos vote made sense because you could see the thought process that led to her finally settling on Ulli

???:

>Fg voted plop then ulli. I read the explanation that someone else gave for why she did it and was like "ok w/e"
>Plop started the FFA Wagon, dunno if thats good or bad, he was kind of slow burning on FFA then this comes out of nowhere

Bad

shadow moved his vote like 28945432879 times
tforce materialized a vote from nowhere on FFA

So 2nd wolf can be within (FG/Subaru, Plop, Shadow, Tforce)

3rd wolf could be in either of those groups

Dont think DBP is wolfing
Dont think Mello is wolfing

After resetting and actually thinking about the game, those are my only 2 ride or die townreads, everyone else is on the table.

Stay tuned for part 2 coming whenever i feel like it

[TWGma]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

alright time to do some work

=====

flashflash account (5) - fatfuck42, DaBackpack, Shadow_God_10, TWGma, Ulleabhara
Ulleabhara (4) - Xiz, FreezinIce, mellonxcollie, Funnygurl555
TWGma (2) - YoshL, Hakulyte
DaBackpack (1) - the sun fan

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Not Voting (1): flashflash account

====

I moved Ulli's vote to FFA because for all intents and purposes thats where it was.

Now,for a wagon analysis you'd ideally like to have 1 red flip to really start being able to draw conclusions. The fact that both the top wagons are definitively town is also not great. So this is more to organize my thoughts than anything.

You have 2 major groups that emerge from this EoD:

>People who have took a side on FFA vs Ulli
>People who stayed out of it for various reasons

from a wolfs pov as a human vs human interaction with no stakes in the outcome, i would bet the safer play would be to stay out compared to weigh in.

So i think that there is likely a wolf in the following group of people who stayed out of the EoD clusterfuck (Sunfan, YoshiL, Haku).

I think law of averages puts a wolf in the other group as well, so the trick now is finding which of those votes looks the most out of place.

(20 Mins later)

Well i reread eod a few times and theres and this is what i have

Good:

>DBP had an actual reason for his vote that made sense
>Xiz had an actual reason for his vote that made sense
>Mellos vote made sense because you could see the thought process that led to her finally settling on Ulli

???:

>Fg voted plop then ulli. I read the explanation that someone else gave for why she did it and was like "ok w/e"
>Plop started the FFA Wagon, dunno if thats good or bad, he was kind of slow burning on FFA then this comes out of nowhere

Bad

shadow moved his vote like 28945432879 times
tforce materialized a vote from nowhere on FFA

So 2nd wolf can be within (FG/Subaru, Plop, Shadow, Tforce)

3rd wolf could be in either of those groups

Dont think DBP is wolfing
Dont think Mello is wolfing

After resetting and actually thinking about the game, those are my only 2 ride or die townreads, everyone else is on the table.

Stay tuned for part 2 coming whenever i feel like it

I like the work here, and I would agree with the conclusion of one wolf on each section (trains vs. non), but I'd also wonder if there'd be one on each:
one on FFA, one on Ulle, and one non.

To borrow from Freezin:
flashflash account (5) - fatfuck42, DaBackpack, Shadow_God_10, TWGma, Ulleabhara
Ulleabhara (4) - Xiz, FreezinIce, mellonxcollie, Funnygurl555
TWGma (2) - YoshL, Hakulyte
DaBackpack (1) - the sun fan

Party 1:
Plop, DBP, Shadow, myself, Ulle.

Ulle is automatically removed for obvious reasons.
Shadow I think is fine with this vote.
DBP's is also for pressure purposes, iirc, but isn't too bad.

Plop's and mine I'd argue look at worst as Plop's is the starting one, and mine has the worst reasoning behind it in comparison.

However, I've noticed that wolves like leaving early votes on wagons if it looks like they can gain traction and this coincides nicely with my read on Plop.



Party 2:
Xiz, Freezin, Raeko, Funnygurl

Xiz is excluded.
Raeko's is also fine based on her inclination and defense of this vote, so I feel this is genuine. Plus, the timing isn't bad as it's still a pressure vote instead of thrown about trying tom get it to stick.

Freezin and FG.
FG's vote was a last second preserve vote to throw them into KITB.
The flips show that there wasn't much of a partner save, but I re-iterate my post on relationships and I think FG just wanted FFA around for defense purposes.

As for Freezin's, let me find this... once the forums stop being a cheesecake.
Yeah, seemed to be natural progression. Plus emphasizing the vote the way he did is also interesting because I don't think a wolf would want to draw that much attention if/when the target flips town.

FG just looks bad here.



Party 3:
FFA, YoshL, Haku, sunfan

FFA is exempt.
YoshL's vote I've already covered in a prior breakdown last day, and I still feel that way about it.

Haku's looked the worst to me for a blatant sheep and no reasoning to it, but then not moving it when other wagons got traction. And we know Haku was in the thread, so I can't give him the benefit of not being around like sunfan.
However, Haku's play afterwards makes me think this was just a town flailing trying to follow their best town read's play at the time.

sunfan's vote is an early pressure and then he left.
It should also be noted, he did state in post #441 that he'd swap back to me if he returned, but I do wonder if that really would be the case considering the wagons at the time.
Regardless, this one is a toss-up for me because IRL situations are just purely NAI. However, POE puts it at the forefront for this exercise.


So to pick a wolf from each party, I'd have to say: Plop, FG/Subaru, and sunfan.




Also, re-reading there, I stumbled across this nugget.

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

T force getting votes



Ok?????????????

Freezin, why were you surprised at the votes on me then?
Did you think that I was a town and surprised that I was getting voted? Or did you not like the reasoning? I'm curious.

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by TWGma

Haku's looked the worst to me for a blatant sheep and no reasoning to it, but then not moving it when other wagons got traction. And we know Haku was in the thread, so I can't give him the benefit of not being around like sunfan.
However, Haku's play afterwards makes me think this was just a town flailing trying to follow their best town read's play at the time.

Have you solved me or you just don't need to ?

[TWGma]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Have you solved me or you just don't need to ?

Trying to solve you based on that vote is like trying to solve pi.
Great in theory, but it'll just keep going and eventually I'll give up because there's no way to do it.

I said earlier in the thread that I liked your constant chatter with Shadow and DBP and felt that was townier than not because, as a wolf, it would be easy for you to just dip out of the conversation, but you kept into it without losing your head.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by TWGma

Freezin, why were you surprised at the votes on me then?
Did you think that I was a town and surprised that I was getting voted? Or did you not like the reasoning? I'm curious.

if i remember correctly the wagon for you appeared out of nowhere, for no reason, and i was thinking wtf is going on. Tried questioning FG about it and she completely ignored me.

[TWGma]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

if i remember correctly the wagon for you appeared out of nowhere, for no reason, and i was thinking wtf is going on. Tried questioning FG about it and she completely ignored me.

The best advice I can give is never ever take an FG vote on me on D0 seriously.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by TWGma

I like the work here, and I would agree with the conclusion of one wolf on each section (trains vs. non), but I'd also wonder if there'd be one on each:
one on FFA, one on Ulle, and one non.

To borrow from Freezin:

[big fucking wagonomics post, T-Force flavored]

Yeah, this post looks COMPLETELY redundant if you imagine T-Force and Freezin as wolves together.

Freezin makes a massive fucking wagonomics post, then T-Force comes in to say, "hey! I like this post, but I actually think my version is more accurate!" and does the same fucking thing.

It... really, REALLY feels like a poor use of time for T-Force and the wolf team to nearly fucking duplicate Freezin's work if they're working together. That would signal a complete failure of wolf communication that is kind of hard to imagine, ESPECIALLY if you know that T-Force is a major scumlean for the majority of the thread... You'd imagine that T-Force and Freezin would, in wolf chat, collaboratively write-up a single wagonomics perspective that suits BOTH of their agendas. That way you can give T-Force time and energy to actually, you know, defend himself for the remainder of the phase.

This might sound like a really nitpicky thing, and maybe it is, but if I'm potentially worried about one of my wolf partners getting lynched today, the LAST thing I'm going to let him do is waste time with a duplicate post like that. The most important thing is to let him focus on not fucking dying instead.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

huge fucking wagonomics post

T-Force is firmly in the "bad" category, and is the only one besides Shadow living there, yet T-Force isn't even in Freezin's top 3 this phase.

Maybe his progression is actually natural, that's for us to figure out.

I will say on average that if Freezin is wolfing with Plop and YoshL then they're doing a pretty good job of hiding that fact. It's harder to find any specific connection or interaction to nail him to the cross. With that said, I really, really don't think sunfan can be a third wolf... T-Force most likely can't be with Plopadop... and Raeko is a really hard sell, maybe it's possible she's a wolf, but that's a question for like literally F3 or whatever.