TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Are there people other than haku who are considering yoshl to be off the table?

I have a town lean on him, because I seem to remember this style of play back in the Senpai game and that's all I've really got.

So I wouldn't be sad if he died and flipped town, I'd prefer if we looked elsewhere just for today

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I hope Yoshl is a wolf and wins this game so that your anus knows the feeling of losing to him, Shadow_God

you'll never have a stupid townread on him again

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I have a town lean on him, because I seem to remember this style of play back in the Senpai game and that's all I've really got.

So I wouldn't be sad if he died and flipped town, I'd prefer if we looked elsewhere just for today

Can you point anything out about his style that is similar? and you realize that "just for today" is kinda hard when we've already lost 3 town right

[TWGma]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Sunfan's post is probably right in terms of the numbers and such, but all I can think about is "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

So maybe the pairing sucks, but dammit, Plop is still the wolfiest player in this game, imo, and FG is not far behind.

[fatfuck42]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Alright, I made a rare evening cup of mud and I'm gonna sip on it as I reread the thread in full.

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Can you point anything out about his style that is similar? and you realize that "just for today" is kinda hard when we've already lost 3 town right

It's mostly his calm demeanor and analyzing things... maybe? It's been a year since I've played with him... I could be wrong, and usually am about things like this


Yeah hindsight is a cunt and I realize that we actually NEED to hit a wolf today to get some good leverage going into tomorrow

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

FG still top dog for me based on what I've said last night so far

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Sunfan's post is probably right in terms of the numbers and such, but all I can think about is "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

So maybe the pairing sucks, but dammit, Plop is still the wolfiest player in this game, imo, and FG is not far behind.

Sunfan: *A reasonable explanation as to why town shouldn't play a certain way*

Force: *Meme quote*

guess I lose this one

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Logically, you want to vote out Plop here to reinforce the FG/T-Force worlds.

this is the thing, Haku

you're talking about logic here when its a read
Plop has nothing to do with any worlds related to FG/T-Force in my mind. I don't care about this at all, and you shouldn't either.

Just fucking pick someone and vote them because you think they're scummy, not because you'll get some reinforcement on a world that isn't remotely related to the reason why you'd vote the person in the first place

its seriously no wonder town lost last game trying to infolynch me d0

there was no information gathered other than that I was town

whatever plop flips if we kill him, you go back, you look at his interactions, and *then* you decide what information you want to give a shit about. Until then, pick someone for being scummy.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Sunfan: *A reasonable explanation as to why town shouldn't play a certain way*

Force: *Meme quote*

guess I lose this one

I think your post is largely correct. The one contradiction I see is that wagonomics really only makes sense in the context of dyads, because players vote for other players. When you analyze voting patterns of specific players--- which is a very good tool for solving--- you naturally start asking yourself about the alignment relationship between the voters and the votees.

While individual actions are reliable pieces of evidence, there is always going to be that context which is additional information to hone the read.

I definitely think that basing reads based on dyads this early on is fundamentally risky, but I still think that you can't fully understand human behavior and agenda without at least utilizing connections between players. An example would be with FG: her voting for Ulli is confusing and scummy at first, until you realize that she wanted to keep FFA alive because of the nature of their relationship.

---Anyway, this is more academic and nitpicky than is useful. I think the policy you've described in your wallpost is the best way to at least start out with reasoning.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Regarding T-Force/FG:

If (big if) we feel reasonably sure that this is W/T then we absolutely should vote in here today, IMO.

Because here's what will happen if we don't: we'll mislynch today, and during tomorrow (potential MYLO) the wolves will weaponize the T-Force/FG tension, and they will force (ha) the issue, but specifically in a way that lynches the wrong person. We see this all the time: a scummy town player is strategically kept alive until MYLO, and then the wolves push the narrative "well, we kinda HAVE to resolve this player now" and get the win off the mislynch.

Resolving these conflicts early on prevents wolves from weaponizing them in the critical moment. I think the vigi agrees with me, which is why they prolly shot Ulli in the night. Maybe they'll be able to resolve T-Force/FG by shooting them tonight, idk how the numbers work for parity if they do that though. I'd rather at least flip one of them as a lynch though, because that helps the vigi tremendously in the night.

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Maya only had one bullet, DBP

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

If my perspective today seems pretty myopic that's why. We can't guarantee a wolf hit today. And if we miss, then we better damn make sure that we don't set ourselves up for failure tomorrow.

I'm self-aware that I'm kind of tunneling right now but it's for more of a mechanical reason based in minimizing long-term risk.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Maya only had one bullet, DBP

oh, fuck me then

Note to roundbox for future games: please make Maya stronger. She deserves it. Please

[TWGma]

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Sunfan: *A reasonable explanation as to why town shouldn't play a certain way*

Force: *Meme quote*

guess I lose this one

I'm glad you think I'm using a meme quote. $2 says you also thought I was using the Michael Scott version of it whilst completely forgetting the origin of it. Dude, sometimes we just need to take a fuckin' shot.