TWG 194 - Game Thread

[leetic]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

No, i would feel better saying that after full claims at this point. For both FFA and DBP to not be roles throws the setup in mad question.

I'm like 90% sure he's town though. Even without claims i think we've been seeing his town game. I dont think its smart to doubt the claim

It wouldn't actually throw the setup into question, VCBTTTT is more reasonable than VCBBBTT

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

this is like the 3rd time I remember you mentioning setup would be "short" a PR if he's scum

can you explain that to me?

Well Leetic is saying i'm wrong

Originally Posted by leetic

It wouldn't actually throw the setup into question, VCBTTTT is more reasonable than VCBBBTT

Buuuut my understanding is that if we didnt have another PR then we would likely have an SK?
And we aint got no SK at this point.

But if leetic is right then womp womp. I guess its a decision i have to make with gut on how i feel DBP has played

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Well Leetic is saying i'm wrong



Buuuut my understanding is that if we didnt have another PR then we would likely have an SK?
And we aint got no SK at this point.

But if leetic is right then womp womp. I guess its a decision i have to make with gut on how i feel DBP has played

leetic's right. the odds actually favor one of you guys being a liar

and four Ts still means no serial killer, which seems likely at this point

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by leetic

It wouldn't actually throw the setup into question, VCBTTTT is more reasonable than VCBBBTT

25% outcome vs. 1% outcome is effectively the same, statistically, because of how the game is rolled

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

25% outcome vs. 1% outcome is effectively the same, statistically, because of how the game is rolled

I dont know about that....

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I dont know about that....

Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup

idk, there's a pretty big difference in total rand likelihood.

Odds of exactly VCBTTTT = (0.2734375*0.3720087*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~1.41%

Odds of Exactly VCBBBTT = (0.1640625*0.0229635*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~0.05%

The difference is by a factor of 27. That's not marginal