TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Sup dude.



Voted Ben last minute to push him to KitB is one of the big reasons to look at, imo.





Can't tell if sarcasm or not...





Depends on traffic. It takes around 2 hours to get to Seattle, but the last third of my trip was 3 hours because of Friday rush hour. It took 3 to get home.

Yo, i saw that and am glad it didn't count assuming ben is actually town (likely). Post was not sarcastic and, oh.

[TWGma]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Yo, i saw that and am glad it didn't count assuming ben is actually town (likely). Post was not sarcastic and, oh.

His did. Lar's didn't. Which we have to be even more thankful for as that'd have put Ben at 5/4.

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

I am stupid and cant read

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

*cracks knuckles loudly*

nothing personnel, folks

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

the first thing we're gonna look at tonight is the post of a CONFIRMED WOLF!!!
it's raeko btw
let's see if we can extract some INFO

(first of all, most of these posts are on dead players like star/sunfan. bleh)

could Lar be defending me in order to soft defend himself?

assuming they're partners here, this might be a signal that Lar is painting too big of a target on his back? maybe? either way, she brings up this point but has no real conclusion to it until next day phase

if they're not partners, then raeko here is providing some cover herself in being diplomatic, at least a little bit. I wouldn't call this pocketing because she leaves this point open to interpretation (never made a scum/town declaration)

Based on my reading, I like Lar. The way that he has very concrete ideas about what happened regarding kills/IC staying alive seems like a town with a specific idea in their head that they can’t get out. I think that generally wolves tend to be more wishy-washy about what may have happened in the night because they do not want to appear to have extra information, and will pretend to speculate. This is an example of the type of post I found towny

she resolves that Lar is towny because his theories about the night kill aren't wishy-washy and it doesn't sound like a wolf speculating. I disagreed with this idea, and still think some of the posts are suspect. it's weird that she spent so long waiting to deliver a read on lar. paired with lar's EOD voting and extremely uncharacteristic lar defense, this brings me back to a possible suspicion. I feel like raeko could have turned it around to lynch lar if she wanted to, but maybe they decided to preserve numbers as a strat in the middle of the night since they would only need one more phase to win (3 wolves is confirmed now so this could be a thing)

yeah I was kinda hoping Xel would be around so I could sheep his reads take his reads into account. I feel like I don't have a handle on this game at all other than a few suspicions and nothing that fits together in my head

I guess I'll just try my best

she looks like she was going the strat of not wanting to post a lot of reads on people to leave town broken and confused when combing through her posts to find hot reads

;_;

Xel's not here so I can't even anyway </3

I like Lar overall so I wouldn't vote him today

I started to ISO you WAB because I felt I hadn't paid you enough attention and I liked what I saw, I like the sorts of questions you are asking people and the things you're taking note of

roundbox seems less scary to me than before. I do see effort in his game play and I don't think I want to vote for him today. but, he hasn't screamed town to me yet

sunfan I'm seriously not sure on. I want to believe he is town and I still feel those vibes kinda but I don't have much else so maybe I could be feeling the wrong vibes

I have a hard time remembering Ben's posts from my reading and that scares me.

Tforce ????? I've ignored him too much I don't really have a read that freaks me out as well

Ind's head space seems scattered, he did a bunch of those re-read posts but never really made any pushes or connections from them... might be wrong here but it seemed like more of a show than an actual attempt at solving the game

so I guess my top choice today is Ind, followed by Tforce or Ben

yo jk here's a post. this was obviously before sunfan claim but let's check out the other reads

we have a revisiting of lar being town. no additional reasoning for this read, just that he's town. ok.
she says WNB is towny after doing an ISO, no specific posts but she points out his general posting style which is something
she says I'm less scary than before (last read was on d0 that I was being kinda scary) and that I was doing more work, but then turns around and says I haven't screamed town? this is a rude, flexible read if I've ever seen one
ben and tforce are both people that she says she doesn't remember posting, and uses that as a frame to suspect them. hmm
ind is the one with the heaviest case against him. pretty bold considering ind wasn't the top of people's priority lists so this would a be a pretty bold lynch to pursue. this is a fair point.

if I want to assume that wolves were going for a strategy to preserve numbers, I think raeko would actually keep bonds with her teammates here and distance from town players. I don't think she'd do this in the most obvious black and white fashion, so we can't safely assume that her reads point to lar/wnb as her partners (only town reads) and everyone else is a mislynch case (all scumleaning or at least no mention of towniness). she spent the most time defending lar, so maybe there's something there. wnb was a singular point so this could have been an on the spot read. as for everyone else, the case on ind was pretty specific to not sound like a bus, especially given his current status on peoples' "wanting to vote this phase" lists, of which he was relatively absent. as for the other reads, it's hard to really place anything because both t-force and ben don't have anything other than they're not "memorable"

and that's really about it. raeko defending lar back makes their connection deeper, and it's making me skeptical. ind might come off as more towny because of this, but everyone else doesn't seem to move all that too much.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

wineandbread I've felt like I've really needed to give a deep rereading of. let's go!

I'm only going to focus on reads of living players + raeko as she's our only confirmed wolf

This felt a bit... obvious I guess? I'm sure you meant well but I don't think Gradiant needs prompting of his role to say the least.

Bolded: I'm not sure where you are referencing this, but the statement reuben is quoting here also confused me as well. If it is some bill wurtz reference then I guess we both missed it

Underlined: Where were you trying to go with this exactly? I pretty much glossed over that post completely. More specifically why did that post make you feel WV was awk?

-----

I interpreted it as both factual and joking. "thanks captain obvious" tier joke. The addition about not talking about setup appears more like a "woops I fucked up" kind of post. All we know is M or MMM anyway there's not much to discuss.

the former is a few questions for MML, finding his behavior slightly suspect but alarming. asking for reads, but not implying any alignment at that point in time.
the latter is an indirect defense of my response to blind and others about the setup.

The people at the time of the post I have not enough information on would be you, raeko, funnygurl, manti, and rb. To address you and sunfan, I picked you more or less randomly out of the pack. I didn't find your exchange with fg suspicious or anything, I just noticed you had two votes and I felt adding pressure here would produce the most results.

I don't intend to stay on you but your defense here is well, shallow. Deflecting to other people having less posts doesn't really excuse yourself. If I voted Manti and he talked about you or raeko having low contribution too, how would you feel about that?

wnb gives a nice defense of himself after people blasted him for random voting t-force. it's calm and collected, and explains his read in a fashion that doesn't bleed something like OMGUS and is pretty logical.

Does anyone want to make another tumbril until T-Force gets back?

--

Here's my view of the game atm:

Not Enough Information (neutral): Manti, mellon, rb, blind

Reuben: I think he's a bit overly defensive toward Gradiant which is a bit weird, though nothing else stood out to me as too wacky.

Ind: I have no real reasons to believe he is anything but town atm

MML: Even though I didn't like his IC callout, I think confronting Gradiant felt towny.

Just gonna unvote till I get back from dinner just in case

he has this really weird request/callout at the beginning, but it feels like an awkward happenstance instead of an intentional request to find a new tumbril to jump on
as for the reads, he likes ind for ???, MML for confronting gradiant (now he takes a stance), and says ben is weird for his defense of the IC

Busy with something but I'll say this, rb looking much better now

y tho? potential minor pocket? nothing too crazy though

Uhh if I die anything to say

I guess I'll play better next time

here's his apology for his vote. this doesn't sound like a dying wolf caught in a KITB, I think he would have taken it differently than a self-pres vote into this AtE

~~NIGHT KILL THEORIZING~~

fuck I forgot wnb was posting about this
that and the setup stuff. this is at least slightly innocuous because he's highlighting possibilities instead of constructing a narrative. he does call one possibility a stretch, but that's not hard confirming the other.
NAI

Yeah so a quick iso reveals I'm basically her only active target d0, unless you count T-Force (lul).

People she thought were towny: MML, inD

Her last post d0 was at 7:17 server time so she wasn't around of EOD. But seemed more or less content with her vote before leaving.

k back to werk

:GOOD SHIT: reading dead players
NAI but thank you for your service

Reuben has basically one real post today. I don't have a great read on him but I think I won't vote him because I'm not really sure it provides a lot of information right now. I didn't like the bit addressing Gradiant (I'm not really sure what you were trying to say towards the end of it), and he tries to clear himself for some reason.
@reuben if you see this, who do you think you would have voted d0 if you had to, and who would you vote now?

Mellon's content posts seemed okay to me. It's not quite as much of a response I was hoping for, but I felt similarly to her in that star's case on inD was a little nit-picky in some areas. I don't feel that strongly either way on her for now but I would still be okay with voting her.

T-Force I feel a bit similarly to mellon today, also okay with lynching but not a prime suspect. Analysis feels overly meta-y (498, 530).

I read star's case on inD and I kind of mind-melded that there may be a wolf between inD and sunfan. However my gut feels sunfan is more likely. I'll read a little harder into both.

Blind.. well. The more I look at the exchange with Gradiant/roundbox in posts ~581-584 the more I don't like it. I know you kind of switched off me (well, not by vote yet..) but those posts kind of make me feel like you're a wolf backed in a corner right now.

doesn't really give a good reason for reading me town (again), and keeps MML in his towny pool.
skeptical of wanting to vote ben because of lack of info
is comfortable with voting raeko. wolf!wnb would know she's the roleblocker, so icing her d1 is a bold, BOLD bus strategy
actually down to vote t-force this time instead of just pressuring
light defense of ind here, nothing crazy though.

reads are consistent with his original list, seems organic and not forced

I'm gonna go ahead and pressure reuben as well for now since blind isn't here atm

jumps vote onto ben, about 1.5h before EOD

Does this mean you don't think inD is a good lynch anymore just for today or is he creeping back into your town list?

seems open to lynch ind, he made another post that suggested he was thinking a bit on his read on him. not too crazy, this question seems tame but the intent is there

@roundbox who would be your second target if you couldn't do blind right now?

intent to sheep? he follows my blind vote but he has had his suspicions on blind. only call to alarm is that he hasn't done much at this point

What do you mean someone is protecting Gradiant? It's clear to me wolves are blue hunting, and they hit the mark this time. Still not good to assume a doc/rb are in the game.

I think the bolded is uhh... interesting of you to say. I guess it's because you are trying to read into the setup too much again but from my perspective, we are not too far removed from some of the worst case scenarios.

if scum!wnb, he made an anti-slip here addressing the setup possibilities about saying a doc/rb are in the game. granted sunfan doc'd the IC nights 1 and 2, wnb might have a different reaction as a wolf here if they had failed at least one kill on him.

he's starting to get skeptical of MML here for his theorizing. he drives this more into his next post since MML is forcing his view as a the potential truth.

I guess I don't feel the apathy that you feel but you have more experience playing him than me, so we'll not divulge on this any further.

he still defends me but has no specifics. hmm

more reads

MORE READS

still likes me, acknowledges a potential reread
after wavering on MML, he concludes that MML is more towny than not. I think he could have really dug into MML here, so him backing off seems fine here.
he doesn't feel good about raeko. this is before the doc claim so scum!wnb wanting to vote his roleblocker as the 2nd ticket seems unlikely
wavering more on ind
ben he's fine with voting now

nothing seems odd in terms of progression here. obviously I'm skeptical on his views on me but that's only natural.

My team basically looks like: sun/inD (one of the two) and then t-force/ben/raeko (2 of the 3)

sun/inD is a risky vote tbh but I don't feel as strongly/confidently about t-force/ben/raeko

seems reasonable based off of his progressions

I don't think MML would bring attention to the setup if his kills weren't going through

hottest of takes, I like the thought

I didn't intentionally set-up kitb; I voted for ben because my gut told me raeko was at least more towny then ben.

hmmm. probably means nothing
fun fact: wnb is now in two KITB voting situations, lol

But how do you know ben is town?

H O T T A K E

This is raeko's last content post, which was done prior-ish to the sunfan claim

Basically looks like her proposed circle looked something like this:
Town: Lar, Wnb
Null-ish: rb, sunfan
Scum-ish: inD, ben, t-force, with her top being inD

From this I think I'd clear inD, at least for now, because she's the only person she tried to make a case for. The other two are more like "I wasn't reading / can't make cases" so they're still up in the air, but I'm not sure she would scum-read her entire team (maybe some meta bois can comment?)

sunfan we know now

rb she said was "less scary", she kind of argues the opposite of MML and T-Force here I guess since she sees effort while the others see apathy. Maybe suspicious?

And then she clears MML and I with not-so-strong reasoning. Take that as you will.

mindmelded on ind read a la raeko's read. I didn't read this post so hey that's cool that we're agreeing!
not confident on the MML point but hey you take what you get

setup stuff

k.

THE VERDICT:

+reads seem organic, naturally progressing from one day to the next
+mindmeld on certain points, like the raeko post combing sliptake on MML
+pure sounding "I might die from this lynch" post
+raeko's read on him

+/- setup stuff

-weird pockety feeling on me without much interaction/read depth

I think the positives outweigh the null/negatives. wnb looks good, don't think my vote is going here today

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

k see you tomorrow for more, maybe if I'm feeling spicy I'll do some more before I sleep

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Man just, where was all this work at any other point in time Roundbox? And I like how you have just enough time to try and paint me read and clear your likely partner. How convenient!

This is a super weak "I solved the game" post.

The first two parts of this post are irrelevant to be posted again. Then your statement for Force is "he was on raeko early." I've seen a rock make better statements.

Oh? Do you think he would bus?

InD's is a lot of speculation on scum team behavior that has no place in this post because it's a general statement that doesn't pertain to InD. Out of norm shit happens and I know you know that. Your process to put ben in town pile is just bad and I know you know it.

I'll let you argue InD although I think you're wrong.

The way those wagons went down there is very little reason to think both are wolves. I already pointed this out several times today

This post then REEKS of having been completely pre-prepared.

I didn't try to hide that it was. Pretty sure I pointed out that it had been on my mind most of the night phase and I came to write it so it could be ready for start of day.

Look at the post time for Christ's Sake.

This observation means fuck all and you should feel bad for thinking it doesn't.

Yeah as far as I'm concerned it's not really a great post. The idea your post was a slip isn't irrational.

Except it is tho

assuming they're partners here, this might be a signal that Lar is painting too big of a target on his back? maybe? either way, she brings up this point but has no real conclusion to it until next day phase

You would never have had the chance to play with Raeko in order to believe this could happen.

And I wasn't under any fire at the time so in context this made no sense.

I feel like raeko could have turned it around to lynch lar if she wanted to, but maybe they decided to preserve numbers as a strat in the middle of the night since they would only need one more phase to win (3 wolves is confirmed now so this could be a thing)

Fucking what

and that's really about it. raeko defending lar back makes their connection deeper, and it's making me skeptical. ind might come off as more towny because of this, but everyone else doesn't seem to move all that too much.

Wolves defend towns all the time. You should ISO me and see if I seem wolfy to you.

But I assume going through Raeko's like 30 posts would be easier huh

wineandbread I've felt like I've really needed to give a deep rereading of. let's go!

It's great you picked your partner to re...reread? These are your first real serious posts on people. Everything else in this game was either you arguing with me or much shorter takes.

he's starting to get skeptical of MML here for his theorizing. he drives this more into his next post since MML is forcing his view as a the potential truth.

You mean the thing that everyone kept asking me about that I turned out to be correct on? Twist that truth harder Round

I think the positives outweigh the null/negatives. wnb looks good, don't think my vote is going here today

You don't say.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

It's almost like I have another day to reread everyone else lar

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

I'm going to do some reevaluation today and tomorrow and see where I end up. I've failed to make a good read on wnb, tforce, and ben. I feel like I could tune up my indheart read and maybe revisit mml a little bit because there's a bit of self fulfilling prophecy I'm catching myself falling into

also this post doesn't exist and doesn't establish an order of my confidence on reads and my desire to reevaluate the shaky ones first

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Oh? Do you think he would bus?

It's not about if I think he would bus or not. Though, yes. I think every player on this forum right now in that lead would bus their partner at least slightly.

The way those wagons went down there is very little reason to think both are wolves. I already pointed this out several times today

I haven't had the time to read it yet.

I didn't try to hide that it was. Pretty sure I pointed out that it had been on my mind most of the night phase and I came to write it so it could be ready for start of day.

Let me rephrase. The prepared nature of this post seems more like preemptive damage control, by trying to slid at least another day by trying to share reads and thoughts that you prepared, and had time with your team mates to coordinate if you were scum-sided.

The main point is your prepared post doesn't offer anything other than a list of where you stand. The reasoning's given are very flimsy by what I've seen you post before.

"T-Force was on Raeko too early for me to believe that he is a wolf. I don't know if I've ever seen him bus either."

Look at this fucking sentence. He voted early.

That's it.

Really.

That's 100% town status?

Next game I'm gonna vote all my partners every time a wagon develops and it's nice to know you'll see me as town for it.

FUCK.

InD could bus. There's arguably zero reason *not* to bus with an outed doctor who can't save them-self. That's a 100% fair trade EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR BOYO BOY.

There's 100% a wolf who voted raeko. Every time. And TBH I am totally down with lyncing between force and InD for it. And I'd lynch InD based on our fucking vigi's read and this concept.

Gonna try and peek to see if sunfam was suspect of InD and if he was sorry inD I think you die today with those pieces in place.

"oh we couldn't have had two wolves as lynch potentials..."

Didn't this shit happen sometime in the last four games?

WISH GREG WAS HERE TO CONFIRM IT FOR ME. JS.

Wolves are jerks.

So your post is not up to the typical lar standards of being gud.

Any posts of InD's that you think are saving graces for your read? Because frankly I'm done with your post after this one, I wanna move onto maybe netting a jerk.

[Wineandbread]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

I won't be around for rest of day probably b/c of travel, but should be around near EOD

I'll just quickly comment on some stuff since my last post:

@MML: is there any situation you can think of where I'm town? Or are we going to get into cleared-slot-tier shenanigans from you again?

My only true suspicion of MML at this point is his weird defense of raeko last day and the last minute ben vote, rest is all situational cause I had a town read on him for most of the game.

I can tell you with utter certainty roundbox and I are not partners. I'm not clearing him either, I think he is a low probability lynch. he comments in his read of me on a post I made about him: basically I don't feel like MML/T-Force's view of his "apathy" this game is accurate, but because I haven't played very many games with him (and I believe no games where he was wolf) I can't say with certainty they don't have a case. It's just what I believe, and therefore I think that "not caring" case for him is weak at best. His inability to read raeko as he posts earlier today is weak but then again I voted ben too so what the fuck do I know

The thing is though I can't tell if the dialogue exchanged is w/t or t/t (basically can't be w/w imo).

Then there's ben, T-Force, and inD. I had a good feeling about T-Force at the beginning of this day, very questioning and I like his logic on ben (actually, now that I read back that reads list, why did you give inD town again?). inD I suggested based on raeko's list that he is probably clear (at least for today), so I'm left with ben. But T-Force/MML have the right idea where I don't think two wolf wagons would form like they did.

So I guess I'm the most viable lynch today? That sounds odd.

Looking back at votes:

raeko: inD, sf, T-Force, ben

ben: Xel, rb, raeko, me

sf: MML <- he switches to ben at the end but it doesn't apply

ben and raeko have self-pres votes so I can't fault them for that.
Logically, there has to be one wolf on raeko's wagon (if you consider me town which I am) if I don't count MML/rb as a team.

The biggest question is whether or not there are 2, which would mean the team is 2/3 of inD/T-Force/ben.

For if only one wolf on raeko, then you have MML+(inD/T-Force/ben) and rb+(inD/T-Force/ben). I'd basically eliminate ben from both of those setups (esp. rb because he parked much earlier)

I really, really doubt inD is wolf at this point b/c of both raeko's case and the fact that he parked his vote on mellon so early and didn't move it (MML made this case)

I would really like to eliminate ben because of wagon stuff but I'm not against voting him if he doesn't show up today. I'd really like to hear some stuff from you.

In which case I have to vote from rb, MML, T-Force. I would lean MML the most of the 3, then rb, then T-Force probably.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

I haven't had the time to read it yet.

K well I'm working today and don't have time to argue with someone who hasn't caught up. You're basically spewing nonsense from your mouth-hole at this point.

@MML: is there any situation you can think of where I'm town? Or are we going to get into cleared-slot-tier shenanigans from you again?

Your reaction at start of day that said "fuck me I'm bad" (Or whatever words you used I'm in too much of a hurry to want to check) basically sealed the deal for me.

You didn't say "That's not right!" You didn't argue, you didn't get in there and do any serious work right away. Nope, just vaguely admitted to being caught and then only denied that's what the post meant when I asked about it.

Yeah no sorry bro you be a wolf.

My only true suspicion of MML at this point is his weird defense of raeko last day and the last minute ben vote, rest is all situational cause I had a town read on him for most of the game.

Goes on to say that out of three possible lynch targets he leans me the most so good lip service here I guess.

Looking back at votes:

raeko: inD, sf, T-Force, ben

ben: Xel, rb, raeko, me

sf: MML <- he switches to ben at the end but it doesn't apply

ben and raeko have self-pres votes so I can't fault them for that.
Logically, there has to be one wolf on raeko's wagon (if you consider me town which I am) if I don't count MML/rb as a team.

The biggest question is whether or not there are 2, which would mean the team is 2/3 of inD/T-Force/ben.

This is padding.

It's been established in the thread that no set up remains where we do not have 3 wolves total.

I would really like to eliminate ben because of wagon stuff but I'm not against voting him if he doesn't show up today. I'd really like to hear some stuff from you.

From the man who said he didn't know what he was talking about because he voted Ben earlier in the post.

In which case I have to vote from rb, MML, T-Force. I would lean MML the most of the 3, then rb, then T-Force probably.

I'm sure you would.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

The fact that rest of town isn't here is pretty bad. People need to start caring about the game.


I work dishpit today and while that shift ends when I'm finished (As oppose to a set time) I'm pretty sure I can be home at the computer no closer then an hour from EoD. I've pretty much said my piece anyway and every question you could possibly ask me I'm sure I've answered you know in case anyone wants to like ISOs me or anything crazy like that.

Roundbox is claiming he'll be back with more reads and hopefully he will but honestly It's a farce anyway no matter what he's going to end up voting me. I'm actually pretty sure he's just going to come in, say he didn't have the time and then regurgitate the Raeko thing again for his vote

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Oh wait real quick before I go

Or are we going to get into cleared-slot-tier shenanigans from you again?

Sun did save IC both nights so you can congratulate me in post for calling that.