TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

I swear to God if people start asking me shit that's in my big post I will quote it back to them

And I won't edit it down for their convenience I will make you read the whole fucking thing every time

[TWGma]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

pick one
don't pull this wishy washy stuff br0

I'm just getting confrontational. Don't mind me~

No, that's not what I meant when I said 3/3. I said 3/3 town jokingly because I had already gotten two town lynched, and if ben had gotten lynched and was town it would have made me 3 for 3 as a baddie.

Ahhh. Gotcha.

Did you fucking read my post?

We did. Still makes it sound like you 100% know Ben is town when, according to your post, Ben is in a light-green - not a solid, dark-green - which implies he's not 100% town.
Which counters your next post saying we'd have mislynched - ergo he is 100% town.

Phrasing~

[Wineandbread]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Xel's not here so I can't even anyway </3

I like Lar overall so I wouldn't vote him today

I started to ISO you WAB because I felt I hadn't paid you enough attention and I liked what I saw, I like the sorts of questions you are asking people and the things you're taking note of

roundbox seems less scary to me than before. I do see effort in his game play and I don't think I want to vote for him today. but, he hasn't screamed town to me yet

sunfan I'm seriously not sure on. I want to believe he is town and I still feel those vibes kinda but I don't have much else so maybe I could be feeling the wrong vibes

I have a hard time remembering Ben's posts from my reading and that scares me.

Tforce ????? I've ignored him too much I don't really have a read that freaks me out as well

Ind's head space seems scattered, he did a bunch of those re-read posts but never really made any pushes or connections from them... might be wrong here but it seemed like more of a show than an actual attempt at solving the game

so I guess my top choice today is Ind, followed by Tforce or Ben

This is raeko's last content post, which was done prior-ish to the sunfan claim

Basically looks like her proposed circle looked something like this:
Town: Lar, Wnb
Null-ish: rb, sunfan
Scum-ish: inD, ben, t-force, with her top being inD

From this I think I'd clear inD, at least for now, because she's the only person she tried to make a case for. The other two are more like "I wasn't reading / can't make cases" so they're still up in the air, but I'm not sure she would scum-read her entire team (maybe some meta bois can comment?)

sunfan we know now

rb she said was "less scary", she kind of argues the opposite of MML and T-Force here I guess since she sees effort while the others see apathy. Maybe suspicious?

And then she clears MML and I with not-so-strong reasoning. Take that as you will.

[Wineandbread]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Did you fucking read my post?


For what? There's nothing there. I explain why Ben is town in my post already. There's no way both of them are wolf the votes would have shifted much more then they did.


Because there's literally nothing fucking there?

You worded the mislynch sentence quite strongly relative to how you feel about Ben, who you only seemed to clear by POE (and that's based on guesses for many of those town).

I mean, I feel convinced by you and T-Force now that ben probably isn't a wolf at EOD but the language just didn't seem to match your read imo

[Wineandbread]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Last post before slep, I'm just gonna post about setup now since my credibility is shot
Roles we know: M(xel), V(star), D(sf)

So let's break down scum role potential:
5-7 T are impossible
2T, 4T are possible (no SK)
1T, 3T are possible (SK)
0T is possible but statistically pretty hard to roll. Then again, RNG is RNG. Anyway it's not that important. What is important is that 4T, 2T and 0T all have 3 mafia with a scum roleblocker.

In the case for 4T setup is solved, 4T - M - V - D
In the case for 2T we have 2T - M - V - D - x - x . Sf wasn't saved last night so DDD is virtually impossible (esp. with scum roleblocker gone), DD is possible where the 1-shot already saved. Otherwise, MM/VV are impossible, MMM/VVV are possible, and any combination of B and C are possible.
Not going to bother with 0T because it's a rare pepe.

In the case of 3T/1T, SK is in the game.
3T - M - V - D - x, where x = B/C/D, a possibility for sure.
1T - M - V - D - x - x - x is hard to consider right now but that ends up in a lot of blue roles.. It's also on towards the ends statistically.

Honestly now that I think about it, as SK not killing is a viable strategy because it can throw town in for a loop if they're trying to solve setup. I guess you're gambling not getting shot/copped, but it's easier to feign town than wolves. Though I'm not too sure about how that fares endgame.

I still feel like the setup is 4T though, but I don't want to detract from the possibility of an SK existing

[TWGma]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Potential Lar defence/deflection from her à la his defence of her?

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

We did. Still makes it sound like you 100% know Ben is town when, according to your post, Ben is in a light-green - not a solid, dark-green - which implies he's not 100% town.
Which counters your next post saying we'd have mislynched - ergo he is 100% town.

Phrasing~

I see this as a bit of stretch

Because it fucking is.

Like I do say that Ben is town because do not believe both where wolves so following the logic I present that would make him a mislynch

Not that fucking hard to figure out you know?

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

You guys are overthinking this we fucking won.

If I'm the only gray question and you lynch me I'm going to flip town and then it's going to be super obvious that it's Roundbox and WnB so all you'll have to do is lynch them the next two days and town walks away with the win. And then I'm going to go to post, point out I called the set up and the wolves first and fucking peace out.

There's literally nothing for me to add for tonight so I'm catching up on Zzzs. If you want to be a flaming shit stain vote me I don't care we literally fucking won this regardless

[TWGma]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

If I'm the only gray question and you lynch me I'm going to flip town and then it's going to be super obvious that it's Roundbox and WnB so all you'll have to do is lynch them the next two days and town walks away with the win. And then I'm going to go to post, point out I called the set up and the wolves first and fucking peace out.

I mean, you're not wrong that you 3 are probably our final lynches, but angry much? Ease it on the salt.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

you two being so confident on the final lynches is scary
more from me tomorrow when I'm less drunk and have had more sleep

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

you two being so confident on the final lynches is scary

You don't like my logic? Argue those town picks brohan they be rock solid and the passage of time hasn't changed my mind.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

You don't like my logic? Argue those town picks brohan they be rock solid and the passage of time hasn't changed my mind.

I never said I had a problem with your logic. I just have a slight concern with people declaring locked lynch orders and claim that it guaranteed wins the game. Not having the capacity to reevaluate your reads upon flips is a dangerous mindset, and your lynch order implies that you're victim to this logic.

I'm going to do some reevaluation today and tomorrow and see where I end up. I've failed to make a good read on wnb, tforce, and ben. I feel like I could tune up my indheart read and maybe revisit mml a little bit because there's a bit of self fulfilling prophecy I'm catching myself falling into

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Also, I doubt that -2- wolves didn't vote both days 0 and 1.

it would be an interesting exercise in watching town cannibalize itself tbh

of course look at the one time we lynch a wolf and suddenly everyone's voting

inclination to re-clear wabby from that tbh

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Assuming we have two wolves, it's Roundbox and WnB. I solved it in the night.



First, lets get the easy clears out of the way


Xelnya is cleared because duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuh

SunFan claimed doc, and while the act of claiming doc itself wouldn't clear him in and off itself he had way too many hints and knew to grab those for it to have been a last minute fakery. He also voted Raeko who was a wolf. SunFan (dispute what my sig would lead to believe) would never bus a partner in this situation. He's 100% green in my books.





T-Force was on Raeko too early for me to believe that he is a wolf. I don't know if I've ever seen him bus either.

InDheart voted Raeko first, and no matter what Star wants to say I don't see a problem with InD's early game. Also here's been in this thread as I write this for awhile and I don't know many wolves who read the thread doing night. Wouldn't clear someone for that alone but I think it's some tasty frosting on the villager cake

Both Ben and WnB seem hard to place, but I think that it's extreme unlikely that we had two wolves as the lynch targets because the wagons settled on those two and everyone voted. I think wolves would have probably propped a third option up if both where red, so Ben looks clear to me.


That leaves Roundbox and WnB as wolves.

I've been making cases for Roundbox on why I am not impressed with his game so far all of last phase so if you've been paying any amount of attention you'll know I have him down as 100% scum now after this PoE; He hasn't done any serious work and I'm pretty sure his top wolf picks are ben and me (something he had to 180 on after I started dogging him) with little progression. I'm just not impressed and everyone else looking so good seal the deal.

WnB actually didn't look that bad on their own but PoE points to them. The first days votes actually do not support this however---neither Raeko nor Roundbox tried to save them. We may only have two wolves this game.

I'm obviously going to go Roundbox today.

-

This obviously does not count for an SK, which could still be anyone not Xel or SunFan.

This is a super weak "I solved the game" post.

The first two parts of this post are irrelevant to be posted again. Then your statement for Force is "he was on raeko early." I've seen a rock make better statements. InD's is a lot of speculation on scum team behavior that has no place in this post because it's a general statement that doesn't pertain to InD. Out of norm shit happens and I know you know that. Your process to put ben in town pile is just bad and I know you know it.

This post then REEKS of having been completely pre-prepared. Needless to say I am *far* from convinced this post is good.

TOWN:
Xel
Me
InD
reuben_tate

SKETCHY:
Wineandbread
roundbox

HOWLIN':
Lar

I haven't read up on what I missed after "parking" my vote, is there a ghood reason wabby is in the sketch pile so I can check into it?

Also, I doubt that -2- wolves didn't vote both days 0 and 1.

OH LOOK GOOD SCUM BEHAVIORAL ASSUMPTIONS.

is this a slip?

also, to answer your earlier question, I resolved that you were not going to be a viable lynch and I was on the fence between you and ben being wolves but not partners. raeko I honestly was having a hard time reading because even though I know a little of her wolf logic, I didn't really see anything in this game that matched it so I think she might have been subverting my expectations for her wolf game and she got my goose
let's just say I expected her to be a bit more bussy but having no votes for two phases goes against it lol

I don't think it's a slip so much maybe a random last second attempt to save.

Let's fuckin' go then. You and me. Make the 3 hour drive.

Or, y'know, help us win this game too. That'd be cool.

I thought it was more than three, and I sadly don't have an enhanced or a passport yet.

Did you fucking read my post?


For what? There's nothing there. I explain why Ben is town in my post already. There's no way both of them are wolf the votes would have shifted much more then they did.


Because there's literally nothing fucking there?

Yeah as far as I'm concerned it's not really a great post. The idea your post was a slip isn't irrational.

[TWGma]

Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Sup dude.

I haven't read up on what I missed after "parking" my vote, is there a ghood reason wabby is in the sketch pile so I can check into it?

Voted Ben last minute to push him to KitB is one of the big reasons to look at, imo.

OH LOOK GOOD SCUM BEHAVIORAL ASSUMPTIONS.

Can't tell if sarcasm or not...

I thought it was more than three, and I sadly don't have an enhanced or a passport yet.

Depends on traffic. It takes around 2 hours to get to Seattle, but the last third of my trip was 3 hours because of Friday rush hour. It took 3 to get home.