TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

It's interesting you think my plan of action today sucks. Too bad you can't see the underlying reason.

It's okay though, babycakes. By the end of this phase I can promise the info I'm so casually forcing out by my hand is worth it.

Granted we don't myslynch of course, but that's how the cookie crumbles.

You promise, huh?
....You do you. I'll be the last one to get in your way.

The point I harped on was relatively minor. Zenith made two statements that didn't fit together. I made a case from it. More concerning to me was that he never responded to it. I don't like that because it compromises the goal of conversation, and it suggests he doesn't have a good answer. So the response (or rather, lack thereof) is more problematic than the initial inconsistency.

Even that, truth be told, isn't a huge flag. But there are no huge flags for anyone here. Any case is going to require at least something of a leap. This is the most problematic thing I've identified re: Zenith so far; as I recall, the rest of his gameplay doesn't stand out in my memory, and has generally had a town tenor. I'll see if that's any different once I've finished full game review.

Put simply, no one should have come off as overwhelmingly suspicious in those first reads, because they were just up-to-the-minute impressions. Charu wanted who I was feeling, so I went with the best of bad options.

If you feel that's his only blemish then you should probably push him for an answer, even this late into the game! Saying it's not that big of a deal when it's literally the biggest deal of his play (why else would it be the one thing that sticks out to you?) is pretty weaksauce.

It looks like you're going to make another big post? Is that going to be posted before you go to bed or worked on, then saved for tomorrow Xel style?

Maybe before opening up that deflated head of yours for interpretation, you should try to understand why a mechanically locked clear player would do this and purposely withold their own thoughts.

Is the answer "because he's an ass"?

Go to your thing and prove to me I'm wrong about your play instead of getting all butthurt about being called out.

I'm here for the moment. I'm not sure how long I'll be in, but I'll check back in several more times before I go to bed at minimum.

Let me review what you've said today again and I'll see if I have any questions for you. A more thorough questioning is going to have wait until isos and early game review are done.

If you are going to ISO people I would humbly request that you do it sooner and not later.

So, I browsed through your posts today. I mostly like what I see. You're pressuring people to do stuff, and you're sharing your own reads. You're also calling out Charu on his attitude, which needs to be done whether he likes it or not.

I did take issue with one thing you said.




You were talking to Charu here. You say the other two are much more worth a look at the moment. But if the group you're excluding is Mellon, Xel, and myself, then you're talking about Zenith and...? You can't be talking about Charu, because you're talking to him and he's mechanically cleared anyway. So are you referring to yourself?

Good question. Short answer is that the other two = Xel and You.

Charu put Raeko up front as top scum out of the three of them. Out of the three, I would rather focus on the other two.

So if that list is

Raeko
Pre
Xel

And I feel that he's focusing on Raeko, then when I say the other two I mean the other two in that list.

So

Raeko
Pre
Xel

Basically I feel like you're bigger scum then Raeko. Any response to that?

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

It looks like you're going to make another big post? Is that going to be posted before you go to bed or worked on, then saved for tomorrow Xel style?

There's no way it's happening tonight.

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Basically I feel like you're bigger scum then Raeko. Any response to that?

Sure. I have not been shy about pursuing my leads and sharing my opinions, whatever people make of them. I've tried to present a reason for everything I've done. Mellon has been extremely inactive for much of the game, and I maintain that's a useful strategy for a serial killer in this environment. The more vocal you are, the more likely you are to be either town-read strongly and gain influence in thread (and thus become a potential night target), or scum-read strongly (and be potentially lynched).

And with that, I'm going to bed. I'd encourage everyone to do what I'm going to do tomorrow and review the game thoroughly.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Sure. I have not been shy about pursuing my leads and sharing my opinions, whatever people make of them. I've tried to present a reason for everything I've done. Mellon has been extremely inactive for much of the game, and I maintain that's a useful strategy for a serial killer in this environment. The more vocal you are, the more likely you are to be either town-read strongly and gain influence in thread (and thus become a potential night target), or scum-read strongly (and be potentially lynched).

And with that, I'm going to bed. I'd encourage everyone to do what I'm going to do tomorrow and review the game thoroughly.

I like this response.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

I guess you can look at the post and note that half of it is a redirection towards why Raeko is a better SK candidate them Pre is, but the first two sentences strike me as just towny enough that the post as a whole feels good, like the bit about Mellon is just an extension of that initial thought and not "but, but Raeko!"

Pure response or great acting? We'll see.

But Oh Hey Raeko

This really leaves me wanting a response from you; you see what he's accusing you of, right? He makes a good case. You got a response?

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Man I want to say this level of anti-town refusal of teamwork is completely unacceptable

Except that Charu kind of set the bar fucking low in that regard.

But either way Google terms you don't know and start hunting scum because at this point if I had to absolutely cast a vote right this second it'll be aimed right at you; prove to me that would be a bad choice.

I missed this when responding earlier at work. Gonna address it now.

You say this is a post is "anti-town refusal of team work" but look how goddamned quick you and Zenith are to hammer at me for it when really it's just a post saying "I don't know what that term means." I have zero idea how a single person in this game sees "Stop using shitty terms I don't know nor care for plz" And sees "hey fuck you mate I'll tell you what, you keep using these terms I don't know about and I'll do fuck knows!"

Or what have you. You're grasping at short straws at best, and just selling yourselves as over eager to come at me at worst.

I may not have posted about it but I did iso mellon earlier, in a way that I usually don't in that I just read her posts and don't do some sort of post by post.

TO BE FRANK. She's uncoopertive, and even lazy if I had to assign a word to it (hypocrite here maybe myself.) But at least she's not over eager, making shit up as she goes. She has consistency. It's weird to me. Her posts feel fairly genuine. But what I just said counter acts that. Is she worth a lynch? Maybe. If it was between her and me? Yes. If I had to choose between her and Zenith? HAH not at the moment I wouldn't. Between mellon and MML? I'd prob lynch mellon pending a later post in the line.

Between her and precarious? I don't know if either choice is really a good one. Could she be the SK? I dunno and let me do Precarious as a kinda "why I can't see her as the SK if she's either of them."

Note: gonna spoil shit for cleaner posting.

Let's play follow the night kills. Because apparently follow the vote is a hip cool feature we can do, let me steal that concept.

1. inDheart Vanilla Town, killed N1
2. Shadowolfe 1-Shot Vigilante, killed N2
4. Gradiant Cop, killed N1
5. DaBackpack / psychoangel691 Vanilla Town, killed N3
6. roundbox Vanilla Town, killed N3

Can knock Haku off this list. btw that's why he's absent. We can some-what sit safe in assuming shado shot him.

Let me allocate what happened when cleaner.

n1

Gradiant Cop
inDheart Vanilla Town

n2

Shadowolfe 1-Shot Vigilante

n3

5. DaBackpack / psychoangel691 Vanilla Town
6. roundbox Vanilla Town

Let me now assign what I think would happen if Precarious was our sk, and I'm choosing sk because I don't feel in any scenario he's a wolf. Especially considering mellon / zenith / me I guess. Mellon has this UTR play that sets her apart from Precarious, or really any other player. While UTR works well for SK, I actually think it benefits a wolf more. I think the SK just plays townie as fuck as best they can. Which... She kinda has and hasn't.

red = best mechanical kill between those night killed

n1

Gradiant Cop
inDheart Vanilla Town

n2

Shadowolfe 1-Shot Vigilante

n3

5. DaBackpack / psychoangel691 Vanilla Town
6. roundbox Vanilla Town

Let me now go over why I think he'd kill where he'd kill.

N1 he'd probably be the one to make the gradiant kill. Gradiant as previously stated in the game wasn't giving a cop vibe (and I still think that actually.) Xiz in the past played a game of SK where the plan was to kill the most townie player. I think precarious on n1 would follow this school of thought assuming he had no cop read / good scum lean. Do I think wolves made the gradiant kill? No. Why? Look who two of the wolves were. I don't think Haku would target Gradiant. I don't really know what to make of juckster.

N2 is honestly pretty self explanatory. I feel wolves AND SK had to the stack that kill on the chance the other side wouldn't. The less confirmed towns in the game the better. Short hand: Could see him stacking here.

The final night is the one I am most hung up on.

Why would Precarious make either of these kills if he's the SK?

Why not kill Zenith or MML instead? Roundbox was EH when he was alive but both of you two have done honestly what I feel is more, MAYBE excluding follow the vote. Psychoangel I could see I guess... but that actually feels sort of out of place because killing her doesn't really benefit him in anyway I can think of, unless I've missed / forgotten something noteworthy.

If he's wolf do either of these make sense then either? Because I feel he'd get Haku and Juckster to do the same set of kills in that scenario.

I can't say I think he's for sure the SK because I cannot justify night three.

But given my play style is not one which mechanics is a hard basis of it, I might be out speculating things in a weird or even bad way. Maybe one of you guys recalls / can justify what I cannot.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

It's pretty obvious that N3 was getting rid of players that wouldn't be likely to have a wagon form on them. I fully expect Pyscho was targeted because after I abandoned the DPB argument no one was seriously considering her. Meanwhile you have Roundbox, Charu and Zenith openly talking about offing me, Multiple people noticing that Raeko isn't doing as much as they'd like, I threatening Roundbox, the tension people had with you that you already pointed out, Zenith acting like an ass (still ignoring an active player at this stage) and Charu being untouchable. If Precarious targeted Pyscho I feel it was absolutely because that was the least likely lynch candidate.

And that follows pretty close to the reason why our SK would kill Gradiant, assuming you're on the right line of thought.

I don't know why anyone would target Roundbox, though. If it was being scared over his method then they where really trigger happy because it was clear he and me where going to get in a headlock for probably half the phase.

See what I'm honestly thinking is why on earth not Zenith or Raeko? I assume that they didn't want to touch a more high profile player (Pre, You, Me) because they didn't want to stack kills.... but seriously with Roundbox tunneled super fucking hard on me (and admittedly, vice visa) our Wolf could easily off one of the other two and let the remaining players go out it.

So of course the only reason not to pick one of the other two is that they are one of the other two. So which one?

If Zenith, why Roundbox over Raeko?
If Raeko, why Roundbox over Zenith?

I don't know, but it's an interesting little exercise you made for me, Xel. I might have to sleep on this.


Then again, You could be the remaining wolf player who saw a phase where Roundbox was more focused on me to off him without people taking notice, lest he turn back to you. To buy that story, we have to assume to intentionally lampshaded the fact that those who died where ones you had beef with.

And I can more or less buy that part of the story, although it being true is another matter.

Let me sleep on it. I'll be getting back on before EoD with my thoughts.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

HEY XEL


Change the script and tell me what you think of Precarious' kills from the viewpoint that he is a wolf, not SK. Tell me how that works or why it doesn't. I appreciate it.

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

HEY XEL


Change the script and tell me what you think of Precarious' kills from the viewpoint that he is a wolf, not SK. Tell me how that works or why it doesn't. I appreciate it.

Here's the issue. Changing it from SK - > Wolf means I have to account for three players discussing and making a choice. I think Precarious would push for the same kills, and would even make the first one make even more sense. But I think the input of juckster and Haku is impossible for me to account for. That's sorta why I didn't touch that route in the first place. I think this works for finding the SK but not for wolves.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Here's the issue. Changing it from SK - > Wolf means I have to account for three players discussing and making a choice. I think Precarious would push for the same kills, and would even make the first one make even more sense. But I think the input of juckster and Haku is impossible for me to account for. That's sorta why I didn't touch that route in the first place. I think this works for finding the SK but not for wolves.

No you're absolutely right, the SK probably shot Gradiant because of top town. With Juckter and Haku putting in imput, they probably did the obvious "we're totally wolves" play that was too obvious for Town to catch on. In this case, killing someone who was onto one of them:

i tend to vote late unless i've got a really good reason, i don't think votes add pressure in early game

that said i'm still ugh at juckter1 for never actually catching up and not being here

I can totally see the two of them basically talking the third one into doing it, with the third wolf praying that it's too stupid to actually be picked up. Precarious seems just new to the game that he would sit there and kick a fit over it, so for our profile we need someone who is likely to be like "fuck it, lol".


Let's continue this thought process shall we? I think I may be on to something.


Smart Wolf let's Haku and Juckter take the shot night one. They go after the guy who wanted to push one of them. Night 2 rolls around and of course the obvious kill was Shado. Shado actually has two reasons to die from their point of view: He's confirmed so Smart Wolf wants to make sure he is dead, and he's going to kill Haku so Haku wants to get that OMGUS out of his system--staying in character for killing InDHeart.

by the time Night 3 rolls around only Smart Wolf remains, and it's a weird situation because he isn't totally boned but there's way more fresh eyes and that damn SK is still out and about. For whatever reason our boy kills Roundbox. So the question is, who would allow Haku and Juckter to make that inDHeart kill and still want Roundbox dead much later?


Zenith would have totally told the other two to shut the fuck up on N1. Also N3 he probably would have left Roundbox alive to go after me. I said Zenith was a shitty player before, but he ain't retarded. He's been gunning at me at that point and he could have used Roundbox losing steam over me to get me mislynched. That's totally in character for him. Also when Roundbox dies you can tell from his responses and the way he treats me different that he legit had to reset his reads over the kills. That's more town to me. He might be SK but I doubt he is Wolf. Actually, I feel really strong against the notion.


Raeko might have been ok with the InDHeart lynch, and I could totally see her totally just letting the others take the reign, but I don't know if she would have killed Roundbox. Having got away with the InDHeart kill she could think it's ok to go after someone who had been scum-reading her like Precarious was for a good stretch, and would have left Roundbox alone. But it's possible she wanting to kill RB so that she could fuck with town. That actually seems out of character for her, but I won't rule it out.

Note that Post Theory says that if she is scum, she can only be SK. I think I made a case that wolves probably killed InDHeart, and SK killed Gradiant. I doubt Raeko would have made the Gradiant kill or the Pyscho kill---going for top town fits more with other players then her. Regardless, I won't rule out that she is possibly a wolf. for now.

But what about Xel?


Well, I know Xel argued against it, but remember that post regarding terms?

Stop using shitty terms I don't know nor care for plz

No as in I genuinely have no idea what that term is because termanology is lol. I don't even remember what omgus stands for dude.

Now, at best (and I really mean, at best) this seems like a man who just does shit by the seat of his pants at times. What, I've played who knows countless many games and I keep seeing these terms I don't know? Fuck it, Yippee Ka yai hey muthafuckas. So for our first night kill, that's an easy mindset to believe: What, you wanna kill InDHeart? Sure go right a-fucking-head with that guys. Much more believable then Zenith for sure, and I'd say it makes more sense then Raeko although let's not rule her out.

Night 2 literally everybody shots Shado blah blah


On night three our hypothetical Xel Wolf really has to put some thought into the game. He doesn't have Juckter and Haku making bad plays and drawing attention away from him, (ATTN Juckter and Haku: I really do love you guys, honest!) and he has to make sure he survives to final three. We know in this case he he must chose Roundbox. Be it as it may that myself and Roundbox might be getting into a fight, RB's number 2 pick was Xel and waiting to off the guy later would be hella obvious---because let's be real here no one for a second is gonna take Lar's side in a RB v Lar situation he's a crackpot who cares about postcount. Roundbox is someone most take seriously, though.

Xel doesn't want to kill Zenith because Zenith at this time could still push for that MixMasterMisLynch. He doesn't want to kill Raeko because her being missing in action makes her a possible target (and I think Pre is suspecting her at this time). He doesn't want to kill me because at this time I kind of got a wagon being assembled, and he can't touch Charu. It's totally beneficial from all viewpoints for Wolf Xel to off Roundbox


And I am sorry, I do not think for a damn second that Raeko is just as likely to make that kill. It's possible, but if Raeko is scum she is more likely to do the "Top Town Kill" strategy we gave our SK because she's been playing this game on and off since 2014 (or before?) and has probably heard of or seen SKs do that. If Raeko is scum she is SK, I 100% believe that.


So yeah, I literally went to bed thinking of this, dreamed that one of my best friends was a 1,179 year old oracle, then woke up thinking about this. I actually have shit to do and it's all being pushed back because I'm writing this lol.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

So here's my TL;DR conclusions

Zenith is not a wolf, and I think he is not likely SK (not compared to the others anyway).
Precarious is not a wolf, but as Xel pointed out likely SK
Raeko is not likely a wolf, but possible SK
Xel is the most likely remaining wolf, and I never did disprove he wasn't SK although I doubt it. I think he was truly hunting the SK in his post above.



I think Xel is most likely scum from this batch of people after having given this serious thought.

I will be here for EoD but know that I pushed back alot of things I may not be here for that much of it. I'll aim for being here by 9 though. Nevertheless I will park a vote now that will be subject to change.

Xelnya


For the record if I have to chose between Pre and Raeko for the Sk, that'll be a hard choice but unless Raeko decides to make one hell of a post I'd go with her being the SK right now. I don't have to make that decision right now though, so I won't.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

My fucking god dudes, wordy much?

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

I almost don't want to read through this shit, just because I see a Xel vote at the end after Xel made a mega post himself.

It's obnoxious, and Precarious hasn't delivered either, but at this point, I really don't give a flying fuck.

[mellonxcollie]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Mellon has been extremely inactive for much of the game, and I maintain that's a useful strategy for a serial killer in this environment. The more vocal you are, the more likely you are to be either town-read strongly and gain influence in thread (and thus become a potential night target), or scum-read strongly (and be potentially lynched).

I can understand your train of thought with this. I don't post as much as some people do in TWG. I'm not the sort of player who posts a ton in a chatty manor, I prefer to analyze everything carefully. Sometimes it can be hard for me to keep up with the game and I need a bit of time to take it in and think about it before posting

I also did underestimate the time commitment a bit. I've had IRL stuff to do and haven't been devoting as much time as I probably should to the game. This is my fault, I can't really make an excuse for it to be honest.

However I don't necessarily agree that the serial killer would play in that way. I can understand using that strategy, but people usually target low activity players and use this reasoning for finding them suspicious. The SK would probably be aware of this and try their best to appear active since inactive people are almost always targeted.

Since they are one-shot bulletproof, I don't think they would be as worried about being night killed as you might think. They would need to be shot twice, which the wolves might be unlikely to do if there were other targets. Or shot once and then have a successful train lead by a wolf who attempted to shoot them. If they appeared very town this would be unlikely to happen.

so I think it is in the SK's best interest to appear as town as possible, not somewhere in the middle. Also, then they would appear as the scummiest player after they got the last wolf out which wouldn't be a good long-term strategy.

The SK has a huge interest in hunting for wolves. The wolves pose a big threat to the SK, so they have also legitimately been hunting for them. That is why I think the SK is someone who appeared to be very pro-town.

While I'm ok with this post I feel like your tunneling hard on Xel and not giving other peeps due attention.

Enjoy your hike, but when you get back I'd love to see you get into both Zenith and Precarious post in this manner. If you would be so kind to indulge.

Don't let me down.

I wasn't trying to tunnel on Xel. I only mentioned that point about Xel because it jumped out at me at the time.

I am considering everyone carefully. I'll get to your request now, and I'll even throw in an analysis of you just for fun :P

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Since they are one-shot bulletproof, I don't think they would be as worried about being night killed as you might think. They would need to be shot twice, which the wolves might be unlikely to do if there were other targets. Or shot once and then have a successful train lead by a wolf who attempted to shoot them. If they appeared very town this would be unlikely to happen.

Since they are one-shot bulletproof, I don't think...

Since they are one-shot bulletproof

Huh...