jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

basically, we have 2 "confirmed" humans, me and cry4, cry4 if no-one counterclaims, and me if godfather gets taken out, otherwise wolves may not go for me to put suspicion on me

after all i'd make a pretty damn good godfather

like siriusly black

anyways

after confirmed humans are gone, wolves get another nightkill, if they hit a town and not one of the remaining masons, then game is over at that point i think from mashi's math and statitistcs

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

i would trust mashi's statistics, whether he's a wolf or not; the statistics are right, whether you choose to believe in the better bet however is up to you

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

j-rodd, reuben, tiloco

i could see this team

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

mostly because i don't think soramimi was red at all, given her defeatist attitude towards not contributing. it felt very soramimi and not something that she would fake

which carries onto storn, who hasn't actually posted anything, which i can also see a new player doing in this situation.

j-rodd, reuben, tiloco game solved everyone can go home now

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

i would trust mashi's statistics, whether he's a wolf or not; the statistics are right, whether you choose to believe in the better bet however is up to you

His statistics make no sense. How would 2 people claiming equal 1 confirmed player.
That's just mental.

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

dude, seriously try reading posts more carefully

"whereas if either mason claims, there would be 1 confirmed human"

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

If Masons don't claim and we mislynch a Human this Phase, then there's essentially no difference in making that mislynch had the Masons claimed.

However, if the Masons don't claim and we lynch a Wolf, then even if we make a mislynch the following Phase, if the Wolves miss a Mason in the wolfing, that's another two confirmed Players for MYLO. Whereas if either Mason claimed, there would only be one confirmed Player. I'm pretty sure I'm visualising it in my head properly, but let me type out an example to clarify once I'm done with these chips.

3 scenarios

scenario 1, masons don't claim

wolves have a chance of missing a mason in wolfing next night (not this night) and we get 2 confirmed for mylo.

scenario 2, 1 mason claims

wolves get 2 confirmed human kills in a row, and we're only left with the 1 confirmed human in the end

scenario 3, 2 masons claim

wolves get 2 confirmed blah blah balh

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

dude, seriously try reading posts more carefully

"whereas if either mason claims, there would be 1 confirmed human"

If you read the setup, masons know who eachother are.
Clearly if one outted themselves it'd make sense for both too as that is game over for the wolf team and they would/could confirm one another.

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

that's assuming i'm right in saying that cold kitten, and mashi aren't wolves.

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

3 scenarios

scenario 1, masons don't claim

wolves have a chance of missing a mason in wolfing next night (not this night) and we get 2 confirmed for mylo.

scenario 2, 1 mason claims

wolves get 2 confirmed human kills in a row, and we're only left with the 1 confirmed human in the end

scenario 3, 2 masons claim

wolves get 2 confirmed blah blah balh

Clearly it'd make the most sense to end the game now so that even if they did kill confirmed towns it wouldn't mean shit.

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

don't latch onto my beliefs yo

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

also dangerous, because you're assuming IM NOT THE GODFATHER

i'm not but still

[Charles Claythorne]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

Wolf
Wolf
Wolf

Cop
Mason
Mason

Human
Human
Human

The Wolf:Human ratio is currently 3:6.

If we lynch a Wolf this Phase, the Wolves will wolf the Cop, and the ratio will become 2:5.

If we mislynch that Phase and the Wolves wolf a Human, the ratio becomes 2:3. We have both our Masons claim and choose 2 of the 3 unconfirmed Players.
However, if the Masons had claimed prior, the Wolves would for certain wolf a Mason, leaving one Mason left alive. So we would have to choose 2 of 4 unconfirmed Players instead.


That's just one scenario, but in the other scenarios where both Masons live, Humans still benefit with Masons claiming at MYLO. To put it most simply, if either Mason claims now (or even next Day Phase), that'll be one fewer confirmed Human 2 Day Phases from now, since the Wolves will for certain wolf the Cop and Mason instead of the Cop and a Human.


Of course, it's a possibility for the Wolves to actually wolf one of the Masons after wolfing the Cop, but if that occurs, the situation we find ourselves in wouldn't be different from that if the Masons had claimed. In other words, keeping the Masons in hiding until MYLO is a case where we have something to gain and nothing to lose. If either of the Masons ends up gaining the majority of a lynch, he/she can just claim and push the lynch elsewhere.

The only downside to having the Masons in hiding is that it's possible for them to be suspected (evidently, considering they potentially can be lynched), but that's more of a comment on their and everyone else's skill as much as it is on their being Masons. I think the benefits of them being in hiding is well worth the few cons.

[Red Blaster]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

also dangerous, because you're assuming IM NOT THE GODFATHER

i'm not but still

Does this setup have that no kill comes back as town? I don't see it in the op. Figured that was something that had to be listed if it was in play.

[Charles Claythorne]

Re: jTWG LXX: Flash Squadron - Game thread

lol or read what yoshl posted, thats basically the main idea