TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

**j-rodd123** · 10-8-2013, 05:27 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

I believe u, it was really a farfetched thing to say haha

**Svaz** · 10-8-2013, 05:30 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

Originally posted by dAnceguy117

disagreed. any one player can become inactive at any time. probably due to other obligations, maybe due to boredom, and I would say rarely on purpose in an attempt to win. most people sign up for a game to actually play the game.

I guess the thing that stood out most to me is this; I am not deliberately aspiring to be inactive, I just started focusing on classes and whatnot and didn't quite have the cognitive energy or composure, I guess, to commit to TWG.

Rae's post made me feel kinda bad in that I guess obligation/drive to post should extend beyond having a key role or being a wolf, like, for that post Kraut highlighted of mine (and I'm a little surprised to not see this come up in accusations against me, though perhaps he was reaching) of me being frustrated about activity and power roles, I'm being progressively less impassioned about playing. It feels bad and I feel like a jerk about it.

I guess I can concede that I'm pretty low content too? I again don't quite aspire to be, I'm a bit weaker in tactical planning in compare to others, I guess. It's kinda hard to contribute anything of meaning with a blank role, honestly. There's no insight as to what goes on behind the scenes.

Eh, anyway, I felt that since it was mentioned, it'd be polite to address it to some extent. Too lazy to dig up references, though.

--------

I still get a pretty human vibe from Charu and from mellonxcollie, if just for their sincere seeming drive to contribute to the campaigns of other, though I suppose I still don't feel sure.

I tried to do a color coded thing like j-rodd but I kept moving everyone everywhere and it seems like a hopeless, maybe futile endeavour for me at this point, here it is at the most basic level, though:

My gut still feels like TPS222 over everyone, but he does seem to be genuinely busy and I can empathise with that. The CJ thing seems sudden and a bit strange, and I think I'm going to have to re-evaluate earlier progressions in the game. I'm going to go with that now based on intuition alone, but at this present moment I feel a bit iffy on everything.

**j-rodd123** · 10-8-2013, 05:34 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

ok im still reading crazyjayde but by 10 we need to have at least 2 votes more on our top suspect obv, make the PP useless

**dAnceguy117** · 10-8-2013, 05:44 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

hi everyone, again, please don't look at what I say and agree with me without thinking. although that hasn't really happened at all anyway haha. but see if you notice something here, or if you don't agree.

V - wolfy

j-rodd said earlier that V is playing very well, and I completely agree, regardless of his role. some of the things he says really make me second guess my read. when I look at the actions, though, I want to stick to my read.

day 1: mostly absent. skipping.

day 2: very interesting stuff. V hard defended Fiction (on the basis that Fiction is an active player) in #693 and tried to move the lynch to either TPS or Manti. if V is town, that's a really good play. if V is a wolf, that's a really good play.

day 3: the basis of my read. #775 is the vote on Krauthammer. he never moved his vote afterward. if he's town, then he thought he had a very strong read, and rightfully so. but check out the logic.

Originally posted by Vendetta21

agreeing with jrodd's wolf tells, calling him human, and voting manti now after your second phase of lynching green? and with jrodd nonetheless. "oh no i'm going to keep completely agreeing with this guy and following his lead but never consider him wolfy when he fails to catch red."

he's right. j-rodd was on both wagons in Day 1 and Day 2, when we lynched humans. jrodd's red reads were Manti/Kraut/TPS, and Kraut's fake red reads were Manti/TPS.

does this logic work as a basis to immediately catch a wolf as a townie? Kraut agreed with jrodd's reads, yes. so did V in post #808. Kraut's fake read on jrodd was town, yes. V implied that his read on jrodd was town in post #819.

let's say you're a townie. you see something you find suspicious, and you try to articulate why. if you then find that you can apply the exact same reasoning to yourself (a townie), does that logic make sense to very accurately hone in on a wolf?

townies can lynch correctly based on wonky logic, yes. that's called luck, and it happens frequently. but we had basically no mentions of or votes on Kraut in the first 2 days. jrodd blocked Krauthammer's kill during night 2, and the wolves knew it, as essentially shown in Kraut's posts #773 and #786. Kraut (at least supposedly) thought that the no-kill was due to a block rather than a guard based on the host's post. it looks like Kraut tried to bait out fiction's mom (jrodd). there are a couple advantages if they can do that:

1) fiction's mom is outed. they get to kill fiction's mom the following night, or at least me when I guard jrodd.
2) the entire lynch would have been mechanic and there would be no information given.

jrodd didn't claim. after seeing Kraut's name suddenly in the red section of jrodd's reads, though, I bet the wolves knew what was up. V then strikes with the super-accurate read, and we kill Krauthammer. examine these events. do you think it was set up?

**Vendetta21** · 10-8-2013, 05:47 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

i've been working a lot so my current perspective is layered with this thought of process variance because it's what i deal with a lot these days.

i think i've been looking for stable signals in what is a cacophony of noise.

one thing i notice is that both of the people i feel are the wolfiest (TPS, Manti) are trying to lynch jayde. this doesn't sit well with me. this is an indicator of a mislynch to me, and what feels like a stable signal in a process with a lot of variance.

given people's who i feel are human's surfacing reservations about lynching manti i'm also okay with lynching TPS222

**dAnceguy117** · 10-8-2013, 05:50 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

I am completely ok with this lynch being between jayde and TPS

**Vendetta21** · 10-8-2013, 05:56 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

man dance one of the things i constantly say is being a hypocrite doesn't make you a wolf. you aren't searching for idiots, hypocrites, and liars, you are looking for people whose behaviors seem to indicate wolfiness. dumb humans tend to perform more wolfy things than wolves because wolves are much more coordinated.

i catch red on the first day like 60-70% of the time and then proceed to lose sight of the rest of the game due to overconfidence. if you need me to i can grab some llinks to games to prove this. this is because from a fresh perspective i tend to catch a couple things that stand out and go with them.

for instance, there was the last game i played with xiz where we killed YMIA (i think it was him at least) day one and he was red. there was the game before that where we caught danceguy day one. the previous C9++ where we got krauthammer day 1. i wasn't here day 1 because i was busy, and then on day 2 i noticed a set of things that gave a strong indication of wolfiness. not being invested enough to really do behavioral analysis, i took a very cold and calculated approach and that paid off.

you are right to note that it also didn't tell us much. i feel the fact that it didn't tell us much is an indicator of wolf laziness. i think this correlates with manti or TPS being a wolf (or both.)

**dAnceguy117** · 10-8-2013, 05:59 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

Originally posted by Vendetta21

you aren't searching for idiots, hypocrites, and liars

wait what? I'm absolutely searching for liars.

hypocrisy is not the basis of my read. hitting the jackpot on Kraut based on what I see as faulty logic (on a day when Kraut SHOULD have been attacked by wolves) is the basis of my read.

**dAnceguy117** · 10-8-2013, 06:01 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

ok let's focus on jayde and TPS. does that sound good to everyone? besides jayde and TPS lol

**j-rodd123** · 10-8-2013, 06:03 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

do you think it's likelier theres a wolf in tps/jayde than in V/jayde or V/TPS?

**Svaz** · 10-8-2013, 06:03 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

Originally posted by Tps222

Its strange that no one is running with dance's(our assumed human) defense of manti 10 or so posts ago. I'd expect the wolves to run away with that if manti was a wolf this close to crunchtime.

Mostly what gets me about TPS is stuff like this. With every blue role either dead or vocal at this point, how can he still operate this way? Sure, I mean, there is a slight possibility there are some super scared blues hiding and j-rodd/dAnce are the most skillful wolf team ever, but that's way too crazy to be accurate.

I do suppose that's fairly minor and it's not unreasonable to take each claim with a measured amount of suspicion but... c'mon. With cardflips and everything? There's just no way.

**Charu** · 10-8-2013, 06:04 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

If we're absolutely getting rid of Dark in this equation, then definitely go after the second suspect.

But I won't vote yet, there's still time.

**j-rodd123** · 10-8-2013, 06:06 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

svaz-that TPS quote was what bothered me as well, like I don't get the logic there at all

**j-rodd123** · 10-8-2013, 06:13 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

not the assumed human part, the whole how he approached it. seeing as how people were lightening up on the manti lynch as well

**Vendetta21** · 10-8-2013, 06:14 PM

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

Originally posted by dAnceguy117

wait what? I'm absolutely searching for liars.

hypocrisy is not the basis of my read. hitting the jackpot on Kraut based on what I see as faulty logic (on a day when Kraut SHOULD have been attacked by wolves) is the basis of my read.

lynch all liars is good policy yeah but not as important as trying to catch people who have a series of things that indicates wolfiness.

jayde said he "faked" his push for manti yesterday or something like that to see how people would respond. that, i feel, is not a basis for lynching him as much as the overall context of the game suggests inactive wolves.

and my reads weren't faulty. you are calling them hypocritical if i understand you correctly because i agreed with jrodd and killed kraut for agreeing with jrodd so heavily. i felt jrodd was human because of his day one activity as compared to the game he and TPS were wolves together. i just went "oh definitely human." we must realize that kraut knew jrodd was human, and from playing with him i know that his game wasn't as fully clarified as that as to just follow someone. he doesn't have a deep sense of the meta of other players, he's typically pretty clunky and inaccurate on that shit.

TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

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