jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

[BOSS_pjpaveloffga]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Bynary, earlier today you led the charge on vigi coming out. I'm a new player and didn't see all sides of it.
you have played quite a few games as far as I know. Why didn't you see why vigi shouldn't come out like the other experienced players?

trying to sway newer players such as myself and cedo to get the vigi to come out while staying under the radar? response appreciated

[BOSS_pjpaveloffga]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

ps not starting a bandwagon. I had that written up but was talking to a few
people before I posted it.

[cedolad]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Bynary, earlier today you led the charge on vigi coming out. I'm a new player and didn't see all sides of it.
you have played quite a few games as far as I know. Why didn't you see why vigi shouldn't come out like the other experienced players?

trying to sway newer players such as myself and cedo to get the vigi to come out while staying under the radar? response appreciated

This pretty much. Bynary until he clears something up.

[Bynary Fission]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Bynary, earlier today you led the charge on vigi coming out. I'm a new player and didn't see all sides of it.
you have played quite a few games as far as I know. Why didn't you see why vigi shouldn't come out like the other experienced players?

trying to sway newer players such as myself and cedo to get the vigi to come out while staying under the radar? response appreciated

I'm not really that experienced - last game was my first in almost five years. I didn't take a stance on the issue so much - I was talking to travman about it and he leaned more towards having him not come out. I stated an opposing view - if the vigi came out, the wolf would be liable to kill him and possibly nullify his kill (have to ask Gun about that, but I think it works that way). Since the vigi will almost certainly kill a human his death will most likely spare us losing another team member. It's a simple matter of math. (see below). I wasn't quite swaying you guys to have him come out - I was stating that it might be advantageous to do so, but of course that relies on my aforementioned scenario occurring. As the others have mentioned, the vigi will almost certainly kill a human.


-----
To demonstrate my point:

There are ten of us remaining. There is one wolf, and nine humans (including the vigi). Obviously, the vigi won't kill himself. Then, subtract the case of the one person who has the guard item (assuming they use it), and that leaves eight total potential victims (7 human, 1 wolf). For this analysis I assume a human has the guard item and chooses to use it. I don't know if the guard item protects against vigi kills, but for this analysis let's assume it does.

Now, if the vigi selects one person at random there is a 7/8 (87.5%) chance that they will hit a human, and a miniscule 1/8 chance they hit the wolf. I don't like those odds. If the vigi chooses not to send a kill, then he will sacrifice himself, but in doing so he will almost certainly spare a human in the process. That is what I was getting at - of all the potential scenarios the odds of receiving a favorable one are overwhelmingly against us.

[Bynary Fission]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Sorry, I meant to say 1/9 chance to hit the wolf, and a 7/9 chance to hit an unguarded human. I forgot to account for a person being guarded when hit.

[j-rodd123]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Ummm no?? The vigi should definitely use their kill. If they hit a wolf they win the game, if not then we get a confirmed human when the vigi comes out the next day. If they don't send in a vigi kill then they die along with another human, and we get no confirmed humans, so really there is no logic in not sending in a vigi kill.

[Sage of the Forest]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Do not lynch me! I'm only making funny posts to make up for the way I went MIA last game, I felt bad about that. Bynary, as he tried to get me lynched, and there really aren't any people more suspicious.

[Sage of the Forest]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Also, Zoshi is a friend of mine from a Super Mario forum. That's how I know him.

[Bynary Fission]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Do not lynch me! I'm only making funny posts to make up for the way I went MIA last game, I felt bad about that. Bynary, as he tried to get me lynched, and there really aren't any people more suspicious.

...What? When did I try to get you lynched? I was defending you - why do you think I haven't posted to lynch you? See these AIM conversations as examples:

j-rodd123 8:46 pm
yea lol, the vigi should use their kill there is really no other suggestion
unless theyre dead already lol

Bynary Fission 8:46 pm
Zoshi could have been the vigi, slim chance but possible

Bynary Fission 8:48 pm
The only other thing I can see is that the vigi sending out a kill and killing a human would be better than him not sending out a kill and dying anyways, which would still result in 2 deaths most likely
But at least his blind shot gives us a chance

j-rodd123 8:50 pm
exactly which is what i was saying lol

Bynary Fission 8:50 pm
yeah, if the heat gets worse I'll address that
I should probably post the AIM conversation too at some point
Where this was said

j-rodd123 8:51 pm
yea do it

Bynary Fission 8:51 pm
But if I seem like I'm stumbling over myself
I'll get lynched for sure
I've got 3 votes as it is

j-rodd123 8:53 pm
who do u want to die

Bynary Fission 8:53 pm
Nobody at the moment, nobody has really caught my suspicion
I mean, some people piled on Sage but what he said didn't really prove much

(rbennie362) For some reason Sage isn't sitting well with me.
Bynary Fission (11:34:01 AM): Why so?
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:34:09 AM): (rbennie362) Then again I haven't really played with any of yall, so its hard to pass early judgements.
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:34:22 AM): (rbennie362) More or less a hunch.
Bynary Fission (11:34:26 AM): Well
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:34:30 AM): (rbennie362) But some of it ties into what I just posted
Bynary Fission (11:34:32 AM): From what I know about him in the previous game
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:34:37 AM): (pjpaveloff) I think its safe to go for sage
Bynary Fission (11:34:40 AM): He's more or less posting just like that
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:34:48 AM): (pjpaveloff) and if it isnt him then manti
Bynary Fission (11:35:10 AM): Well, manti *did* mention that dying on N1 would vindicate him as wolf, and he didn't
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:35:12 AM): (rbennie362) Would you insta manti today if we agreed on it?
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:35:13 AM): (rbennie362) Or sage?
Bynary Fission (11:35:16 AM): But from a logical standpoint he is correct
Bynary Fission (11:35:18 AM): hmm
Bynary Fission (11:35:27 AM): Wait a little more - I want to see what both of them say
Bynary Fission (11:35:35 AM): Both of us have safetied so we'll wait for now
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:35:38 AM): (rbennie362) What do you think Boss?
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:35:42 AM): (pjpaveloff) I suspect sage way more.
Bynary Fission (11:35:50 AM): Why?
[Robert bennie, Bynary Fission and more] (11:36:23 AM): (pjpaveloff) Well just becuase I dont suspect manti

[Sage of the Forest]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Oh, sorry! I got you mixed up with Manti. -_-,

I'm sticking with you, though, because other people have made a good case against you.

[cedolad]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

what'd I miss? I was being fat.

[cedolad]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

oh nothing important. never mind.

[rzr]

lmao go from safety to insta okay.

sage bandwagon

Cedo. Rather self explanatory, but im drunk and at a party I'll explain my logic later just tryna show activity. I read it all, nice detective work guys lmao. Clearly the vigi doesn't want to come out, so let's hope for the best tonight holla on aim


Posted from Flashflashrevolution.com App for Android

[Gun92]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Day is over. I still can't reach my computer so if someone can quickly throw up a count, ill get that posts and night under way.

[cedolad]

Re: jTWG LXIV The Indians of 10

Cedo. Rather self explanatory, but im drunk and at a party I'll explain my logic later just tryna show activity. I read it all, nice detective work guys lmao. Clearly the vigi doesn't want to come out, so let's hope for the best tonight holla on aim


Posted from Flashflashrevolution.com App for Android

Please elaborate oh, drunken, wise one.

Day is over. I still can't reach my computer so if someone can quickly throw up a count, ill get that posts and night under way.

Check your AIM lol