TWG VIII (The Matrix Has You) Day 4

[nforcer06164]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Of course it does't affect future probability. For example of what I mean:

Say you're rolling a dice. Even numbers represent human, and odd numbers represent wolf. Number 1 could be a special human role.

The case of alain would be like this: He rolls a 6. Then a 1. Then a 4. (I don't know the order that he got his roles in, so don't be pissed at me if this is innacurate)

What is the odds of getting those 3 numbers and not getting other numbers in their place? According to what LD said, it's 1/6. It is most definitely NOT 1/6. If I remember my math for probability correctly, it would be a 1/216 that he would get those rolls.

I'm sure this isn't a very good example, but hopefully you got what I meant.

I believe that the probability of getting the numbers in that order is 1/216, and getting those three numbers alone is 1/18. Each one individually, though, has a probability of 1/6.

But let me justify the other side a little: say you could flip a coin 50 times, and get heads each time. On your 51st, the chance of getting tails would still be 50%. That means that anyone could be a wolf everytime they play. Although the chances of that happening are astronomical, the odds of its frequency will never change as long as the amounts of what roles people can get, and number of players, does not.

Alain is being more unjustified that any of us. He changed his stance from coming up with strategies to "lure out wolves" to defending himself. What I saw as really setting him off, though, was Jursey's post of the conversation. Now, I'm having this thought in the back of my head that if it was anyone besides Jursey, he wouldn't have gotten so defensive and/or ticked off.

blahblah (12 posts back) may be getting at something about alain and his possible role, but I'm not sure whether to be suspicious, or to heed his thoughts.