The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[ryanisadouche]

Originally Posted by Arbitrage

ryanisadouche: It's all about variance.

also BASSSSS

but its not about variance. There's no way to predict or control the system by varying your bets, your just as likely to win the small ones and lose the big ones.

also HUNTERRRRR

[hoochan]

Originally Posted by ryanisadouche

stuff

That's not how gambling works. There's always 1 loser and 1 winner. Barely anyone ends up even (in this case even is .98).

EDIT- You can't beat the system but you can gamble intelligently where you win (net gain, not win every bet) almost every time unless you are having extremely bad luck.

[ryanisadouche]

Originally Posted by hoochan

you can gamble intelligently

o hi gamblers fallacy.

Originally Posted by hoochan

Barely anyone ends up even

Over a smaller sample space, no, but as you keep playing your results get closer to what they should be,"breaking even at 0.98" as you put it, which really means you are losing.

It's easy to say "thats not true" but no one's tried explaining themself yet. Probability and gambling has always fascinated me and i know i'm right here.

[heyitsmee]

if you will add a free bet amount i will be able to use the double up strategy like this

1000 - lose
3000 - lose
6000 - lose
12000 - lose
26000 - lose
50000 - lose
125000 - lose
250000 - lose
450000 - lose
1mil - lose
2mil - lose

with a free bet amount if you had about 400k to start with you could have about 9 bets to double back up to the original amount

and if every thing goes normally you would slowly get credits

but with fixed amounts the jump from 1000 to 5000 to 10k 50k and the maximum of 100k breaks this strategy

[ryanisadouche]

edit - at heyitsmee


Strategies like that always fail in the long run. Very similiar strategies have been formed for games like roulette.

Sure, it'll work almost every time. But the huge risk outweighs the tiny profit by a mile. It's inevitable that you'll eventually hit the unlikely but very possible losing streak, and lose it all, making your tiny 1k wins add up to nothing.

[hoochan]

Originally Posted by ryanisadouche

o hi gamblers fallacy.



Over a smaller sample space, no, but as you keep playing your results get closer to what they should be,"breaking even at 0.98" as you put it, which really means you are losing.

It's easy to say "thats not true" but no one's tried explaining themself yet. Probability and gambling has always fascinated me and i know i'm right here.

Uh no. That is in no way gambler's fallacy because I never said anything about sequences...

Also, no. Barely anyone breaks even. The experimental probability of someone getting a 1:1 win:lose ratio is inaccurate because everyone knows that that never happens. In these situations, human instinct would prevail over the math.

[ryanisadouche]

Originally Posted by hoochan

Uh no. That is in no way gambler's fallacy because I never said anything about sequences...

Also, no. Barely anyone breaks even. The experimental probability of someone getting a 1:1 win:lose ratio is inaccurate because everyone knows that that never happens. In these situations, human instinct would prevail over the math.

Well you said "gamble intelligently", which assumes you think you have some sort of influence over the outcome.

And i believe that almost anyone would confirm that a 1:1 win:lose ration is VERY accurate. It would take thousands and thousands of games before you start to see it, but it's definitly there.

And I'm really not sure what your getting at, but for your sake I hope you don't ever go to a casino with real money and try to win on "human instinct".