The Middle East thread!

[trillobyite]

Ok, I'm going to try to be as unbiased as possible about this, and I request little flaming about this topic. Violence is escalating at an alarming rate and I think it is very possible a devastating war (that might spread) is imminent. I also assume you guys know a little bit of the background because I skip over certain facts.

Certain groups operating in the Palestinian territories, such as Hamas, hate Israel and fight it constantly. I wont get into details why, and whether they are justified or not, because that will only lead to fighting in this thread and would take dozens of posts to explain anyhow. Basically, Israel has been, over the past few years, taking action against the leaders of Hamas by airstrikes (blowing up where they are pinpointed, say in a car on a certain road) and artillery shelling. Sometimes civilians are injured or killed by these shellings, with Palestinians claiming that Israel shows little care for civilians and is practicing collective punishment, while Israel claims that Hamas and other groups use children as human shields and fire, purposelly, from areas of high population density. This sort of fighting has been happening for years now since the second intifadah in 2000.

Recently, however, Qassam rockets have been fired by Hamas from the Gaza strip at an incredibly high rate, usually landing at border outposts, Jewish settlements within the territories, or Israeli villages. To combat this, Israel had continued its policy of airstrikes and bombings, ruling that compromise with the Palestinian government is impossible because a nontrustworthy terrorist group (Hamas) is in power, while Hamas claims that Israel is trying to avoid negotiation and promote violence. But only about 3 weeks ago (I think), Hamas operatives kidnapped an Israeli soldier at the border and killed others. Israel, which had disengaged from Gaza under Ariel Sharon (now in a coma by a stroke), is now headed by Olmert, who is angry and wants the soldier, Shalit, back. Israel carried out military incursions into the strip. At one point, Palestinians in a particular city rallied in support of the kidnapping of the soldier, and in response, Israeli airplanes bombed a power plant and cut off the residents' electricity. Basically, **** was hitting the fan. Hamas claimed that Israel should release thousands of Palestinian prisoners, implying they would release the soldier. Palestinians claim that Israel's reluctance to release the prisoners is proof that Israel seeks to ruin the lives of civilians and destroy Palestinian infrastructure, while Israel claims that Hamas had not made an official statement to release the soldier in exchange for the prisoners, and states that the prisoners had engaged in terrorist acts and very well might do so again when released.

Meanwhile, in Northern Israel, a paramilitary group named Hezbollah had been, for 20 years, launching Qassam rockets at Northern Israeli villages while also attacking Israeli soldiers. After the events mentioned above, however, Hezbollah, only a few days ago, killed about 8 soldiers and kidnapped another 2, mimicking Hamas' actions and claiming that they want the Palestinan prisoners released in exchange for the 2 soldiers. Israel, not trusting Hezbollah which is also considered a terrorist group, and angered over the kidnapping of 3 of its soldiers, now considered attacks against Hezbollah (fighting had been occuring for decades, but now a campaign to eradicate the group was being discussed). Then, Hezbollah attacked a major Israeli city (for the first time, rather than an outlying village), Kiryat Shmone I think is its name, using a Katyusha rocket, which has much longer range and is much more deadly than a Qassam. Israel, in response, blamed Lebanon, which it perceived was hiding Hezbollah operatives within apartment buildings and hosting stations and headquarters for Hezbollah to receive smuggled weapons and rockets, with the Lebanese government doing nothing to stop them. The Lebanese PM denied connection with Hezbollah and most government officials claim that Israel was making a false accusation, endangering civilians in Lebanon with planned airstrikes, while Israel claims that its intelligence reports of Hezbollah headquarters and the fact that Hezbollah is unchallenged by any government as it fires rockets from Lebanon to Northern Israel goes contrary with the government's statements. However, the Lebanese PM has been allowed to fly out via a private jet along with 5 other aircraft.

Israel, angered over the decades of fighting with Hezbollah, the kidnapped soldiers, and the tensions with Hamas, recently bombed Beirut's airport and destroyed fuel reserves, but a number of civilians were killed. Hezbollah, in response, launched Katyusha rockets into Haifa, a major, major city which reacted by shutting down its businesses and recommending all inhabitants to seek shelter. Israel, now angered by Hezbollah and believing Lebanon to be their accomplices, is retaliating through a naval blockade of Beirut, the strike against the airport, and warning all citizens who live next to Hezbollah hideouts to leave immediately as the apartment buildings will be bombed.

At this rate, I don't doubt for a second that a massive war is soon to break out. Any statement you can give, whether it be a hope for peace, a claim against or for either side, or any other related opinion, please post in this thread! (I've written this from memory of news reports, there is a possibility that certain incidents are not described or I may have gotten something out of order)

UPDATES: Massive war HAS broken out! Hundreds of Katyushas are being fired into Northern Israel as we speak; Hezbollah has just declared "open war" with Israel. Iran threatens that if Syria is attacked, they will enter. Israel has bombed roads and bridges connecting Lebanon and Syria, and is shelling Southern Lebanon. Israel is ordering civilians to evacuate if they live next to Hezbollah strongholds with warnings and leaflets, and is advising escape routes. Hezbollah has fired 2 unmanned drones at Israeli ships outside Lebanon; One hit an Israeli gunboat, the other misfired and hit an Egyptian civilian ship. No statement has been made by Egypt. Israel is demanding release of its 3 soldiers and the destruction or disarming of Hezbollah, and Lebanese troops on the border to prevent future terrorist attacks.

UPDATES 2: Israel is shelling Northern Beirut, where most Hezbollah strongholds are located. The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, claims that if Israel sends ground troops, they will be "ready to fight." There are now reports claiming that the rockets used to fire on the Israeli gunboat were Iranian rockets, fired by Iranian nationals. Also, after bombing a Hezbollah base, Hezbollah claimed that Israel bombed a Syrian base, but Syria claimed it was not theirs. The Lebanese PM claims that Israel is unjustly attacking his country's infrastructure and killing hundreds of civilians (count is at ~90). Israel claims that they will negotiate with the Lebanese PM for a cease fire only face to face if he has complete control of his government, without Hezbollah's influences, and that they are obligated to destroy buildings in Northern Beirut, empty of occupants, to stop Hezbollah activity from growing there. Some worry that the conflict will spread throughout the region, but Israel has stated they are not looking to spread it but demand that later on, Syria will stop supporting Hezbollah. Northern Israeli villages such as Kiryat Shmone and Tiberias are being attacked by hundreds of katyushas every day, and most Israelis are evacuating from the warzone to the south, where Tel Aviv and other cities are offering free shelter. In Lebanon, many occupants of Beirut and southern Lebanon are also moving from the warzone to escape Israeli airstrikes, to Northern Lebanon or Damascus, Syria.

UPDATES 3: Refer to mickey's post