TWG CXXV - Charu Dies Multiple times. Danceguy Dies Once For Some Weird Reason

[Charles Claythorne]

I'm home!!!

And while on the way, I realised something obvious about a why a rush didn't occur that I just verified. The Mafia only win when they eliminate all the Wolves and are a majority to the Humans. In fact, here's the quote "You win when the Werewolves are dead and the Mafia obtain a majority over the town, or nothing can prevent this from occurring."

Considering T-Force's recent history with going over Role PMs, I would be surprised if he hadn't realised this.

Currently, the game is at 7 Players. Given how everyone's behaved thus far and that XelNya is a normal Wolf (and given his indifference, I'm willing to believe in that), I think it's safe to conjecture that there are 2 Mafia and 1 Traitor. Based on that, the Mafia:Non-Mafia ratio becomes 2:5. Let's say that the Mafia and Traitor choose to rush and just so happen to hit a Human instead of a Wolf. The ratio becomes 2:4. During the Night Phase, if they fail to eliminate the Wolf or if the Wolf eliminates one of them or the Traitor, the Mafia don't win.

Except that when you make a rush, it sort of becomes obvious that you're Mafia. So if they rush and miss the Wolf, they lose. Conversely, if they did lynch a Wolf, they would win, however.
And I think it's important to note that T-Force seemed rather gong-ho about voting XelNya soon after the Phase began, also. Even though he couldn't rush, he still wanted XelNya lynched utmost. And I think the spontaneity of the vote reflects that want. Much like the premature vote made by TWG Villager last game, which I mentioned regarding T-Force's recent vote on me.

And we still need to consider the logic of the Traitor/Mafia not being online simultaneously, the Traitor being unsure of when to join the rush, and the Mafia not even being aware of who the Traitor is. T-Force's logic using the lack of a rush is inherently flawed and is exactly the type of biased reasoning that led him to suspecting Plop on Day 1.