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Admiral in the Red Army
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#1: time travel skews into an alternate time line that exists simultaneously in another dimension #2: backward time travel is not possible #3: random chance #4: some sort of intelligent and all-knowing/all-powerful being taking care to ensure that the attempt fails The first example is what I think is right. The second is also a reasonable explanation. The third is essentially impossible, because even if the first attempt fails, given a potentially infinite number of attempts to create a paradox, there is no way, for example, that your gun would jam every time you try to kill your past self. The fourth jumps into the same area as intelligent design and there is no evidence to suggest that backward time travel has ever occurred in this iteration of reality, and if there were such evidence, an intelligent presence acting, even indirectly, would leave something to suggest that things we're playing out entirely on their own (for example, a person's gun jamming EVERY time they try to shoot their past self in the head would indicate something fishy).
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