Betting markets.

[Vendetta21]

I have been playing a game for about three weeks now, where I try to get people who have interesting opinions about the outcomes of the presidential election to bet on their opinions.

For many different reasons, people think it is possible that Obama will loose the presidential election, and I try to get them to bet on that at ridiculously inflated odds. Anywhere between 1 to 15 to 1 to 50, and I've only gotten 1 person, and he only bet a dollar.

People have this fear that Obama won't win and they are willing to let that fear pervade their life but they aren't willing to treat it as substantial, i.e. I can't get a scared Obama supporter to bet 50 to 1 odds that McCain will win. RIDICULOUS odds and they won't bet on them. Why? Because they, on a deeper level, know that he is going to win, but still fear that he will lose.

This brings the idea of betting markets into play, and how they help us illuminate what we really rationally believe in versus what are just the whims of our hopes and fears. If you really believe something to be true you'd be willing to bet on it, and it wouldn't matter the odds because you know you would win.

Those that are afraid Obama won't win and feel their fears substantive should bet on it. Those that hope Obama won't win and think their hope substantiated should also bet on it. Right now you can get 7 to 1 odds at InTrade on McCain. I'd give you even higher odds.

It's just an interesting cultural phenomenon that we aren't willing to treat our own beliefs as substantial yet we are willing to allow them to pervade our life much more than necessary.