TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

the OP doesn't say that they are, so I would assume no
SOD post doesn't either
so the only conclusion I can reasonably make is that they aren't locked in, which means that roundbox is CRINGE

this is my guess too

in either case, it js extremely important for nobody to prematurely vote because if youre town and you vote a town then the wolves can instantly vote rush to win

@everyone

[the sun fan]

honestly wait
idk how much true credit I can get for this, but it is a factual statement that I never steer town towards killing zenith if I am a wolf unless I am with like
exactly dbp/xel? maybe botchi was also killable yesterday but probably not tbh

if I am a wolf, I try to kill any town OTHER than Zenith and get a very free win afterword

I do think this is very important and should hopefully thwart a good bit of any paranoia that wolves were hoping to get from leaving me alive

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

are votes locked in lylo?

No
Apparently I am now cringe

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by roundbox

No
Apparently I am now cringe

you ARE

[Hakulyte]

Fun fact: I will be missing this EoD.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

honestly wait
idk how much true credit I can get for this, but it is a factual statement that I never steer town towards killing zenith if I am a wolf unless I am with like
exactly dbp/xel? maybe botchi was also killable yesterday but probably not tbh

if I am a wolf, I try to kill any town OTHER than Zenith and get a very free win afterword

I do think this is very important and should hopefully thwart a good bit of any paranoia that wolves were hoping to get from leaving me alive

this logic doesnt apply exclusively to you; it would apply to anybody who had some level of influence over starting wagons

Alternatively, the Zenith target didn't matter because the wolves already had a sheep lined up for today (probably me)

[the sun fan]

genuinely don't think I have a clue why shado dies
I don't think I will think of the why or anything; I was once in a game where wolves nightkilled a lowposter because they thought they were going to replace out and they wanted to stop the mod from being burdened with finding a replacement

I don't think this is likely to be in that tier
idk
I guess I did just play a turbo where wolves lost just about entirely because of horrid night actions
and I don't think the shado kill is horrid (probably??)

I just don't know that I'll get the why
if anyone has any ideas, I think this is important if we can figure out the why

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Fun fact: I will be missing this EoD.

do you have anything else to say?

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Alternatively, the Zenith target didn't matter because the wolves already had a sheep lined up for today (probably me)

it does matter because no sheep is better than a 7/8 chance at winning the game outright

wolves could literally all claim wolf and just say "win 3 KitB in a row or lose, villagers"

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

do you have anything else to say?

I need to reread Shado for now.

[the sun fan]

I guess a team with Haku on it is less inclined to kill shado?
given Shado townread him so hard?

idk maybe a team with haku has haku in such a good position it doesn't really bear thinking about such a thing

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

it does matter because no sheep is better than a 7/8 chance at winning the game outright

wolves could literally all claim wolf and just say "win 3 KitB in a row or lose, villagers"

this is fair I guess. I'm not gonna lie I havent even read last phase's EOD, but I think the specific story of "how Zenith got to be the wagon" is extremely important for this reason

It will give us a pretty good characterization of the mindset of the wolf team

I'm feeling more confident in the notion that "the wolves have never been in any real danger", which would then suggest that most of the game has been town just fucking ourselves over and over. A passive wolf team wouldn't necessarily feel compelled to steer AWAY from a Zenith mislynch---- something something Napoleon something never interrupting your opponent making a mistake

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

this is fair I guess. I'm not gonna lie I havent even read last phase's EOD, but I think the specific story of "how Zenith got to be the wagon" is extremely important for this reason

It will give us a pretty good characterization of the mindset of the wolf team

I'm feeling more confident in the notion that "the wolves have never been in any real danger", which would then suggest that most of the game has been town just fucking ourselves over and over. A passive wolf team wouldn't necessarily feel compelled to steer AWAY from a Zenith mislynch---- something something Napoleon something never interrupting your opponent making a mistake

if we assume you are town, and we are perhaps a little generous to the botchi wagon first eod, then only botchi had a chance of dying by now

I think that the zenith wagon was formed out of necessity; obv go read it yourself, but to quote shadowolfe from yesterday (loosely)
"no, you're right sunfan, we kill zenith today and only zenith"

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

the fact that you arent makes me think you and potentially freezin have been pocketing me this entire fucking time and i hate it. i'm now deeply concerned that dbp is not a hit

I feel like we've barely talked though?

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by roundbox

The Votecount

benguino (5) - DaBackpack, XelNya, ShadoWolfe, Hateandhatred, the sun fan

botchi246 (2) - benguino, FreezinIce
star-crossed (2) - bugkid666, mellon_collie
DaBackpack (1) - Hakulyte
the sun fan (1) - _Zenith_
bugkid666 (1) - star-crossed

Not voting - botchi246

unless we want to believe ben's entire train was town there has to be at least one wolf between dbp, sunfan and xel.

Originally Posted by roundbox

The Votecount
_Zenith_ (3) - XelNya, the sun fan, ShadoWolfe
Hateandhatred (3) - FreezinIce, star-crossed, DaBackpack

botchi246 (2) - Hakulyte, bugkid666

DaBackpack (1) - Hateandhatred
ShadoWolfe (1) - botchi246
Hakulyte (1) - _Zenith_

i cant quite glean anything that good from this day yet, i think its definitely possible that all town voted for zenith but its literally impossible for there not to be at least one wolf among xel, sunfan, freezin and dbp (both trains)

Originally Posted by roundbox

The Votecount
_Zenith_ (4) - the sun fan, bugkid666, Hakulyte, ShadoWolfe
botchi246 (1) - DaBackpack

Not voting - _Zenith_, XelNya, botchi246, FreezinIce

this day is particularly wacky for me. i think its basically impossible for all three wolves to have straight up not voted, so im operating under the guise that a wolf team of freezin/botchi/xel cant exist.

however one person is on all of my sus lists and its xel

[the sun fan]

[qpoiler]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

shado, I'll do my best to explain why we CAN'T kill afford not to kill Zenith
you are right that these are best left tto the mod normally
(I am missing out on something truly grand to be here btw I am experiencing FOMO)

Zenith is not here
he hasn't been here in a while, long enough for me to believe he isn't coming back
normally, this results in a replacement (or modkill)
the OP doesn't have anything about modkills for inactivity in it, I would be spitballing toi suppose something here

I think we have to operate under the assumption that he is not coming back, and that he will not be replaced (this is the most I will comment on the 2nd of these suppositions in this sentence)

Because of this, if he is a villager (which I think he likely isn't but w/e), town enters lylo essentially down a villager
in my estimation, we basically already have lost the game if this occurs

wolves can force a coinflip forever AT MINIMUM and town can only insta if a wolf busses another wolf, or votes for a town alongside town (which maybe they will, honestly, it is kinda based for wolves to just make town win the 12.5% rolls but I bet they'd be cowards instead since that feels like the theme of this game)

DBP (or whoever else) CAN be a wolf, obviously outside of zenith there are 2 or 3

but you cannot possibly tell me that you expect town to benefit immensely from
a) frontloading the flip from DBP (or whoever else) can possibly outweigh the risk of a permanent 12.5% win percentage
b) I actually forgot my 2nd point and checked a discord message and don't remembner, but in the interest of time, I will post this now

we ARE killing zenith, whoever else is wolfy WILL be here tomorrow, and town will either profit immensely by flipping zenith W or we will avoid forever disaster by flipping zenith T

killing Zenith even if he is town has genuinely the highest non-role related upside in a game I have ever seen

[/spoiler]

this is why zenith died yesterday (and why it was correct to kill him), dbp (and whoever else)

[the sun fan]

do we want to do the lylo thing where we have scummiest people vote first?
it is supposed to be a good lylo practice (can expand if needed)

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

this logic doesnt apply exclusively to you; it would apply to anybody who had some level of influence over starting wagons

Alternatively, the Zenith target didn't matter because the wolves already had a sheep lined up for today (probably me)

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

this is fair I guess. I'm not gonna lie I havent even read last phase's EOD, but I think the specific story of "how Zenith got to be the wagon" is extremely important for this reason

It will give us a pretty good characterization of the mindset of the wolf team

I'm feeling more confident in the notion that "the wolves have never been in any real danger", which would then suggest that most of the game has been town just fucking ourselves over and over. A passive wolf team wouldn't necessarily feel compelled to steer AWAY from a Zenith mislynch---- something something Napoleon something never interrupting your opponent making a mistake

I for starters feel there's a bit of open contradiction here

and second, I find it kind of hard to think you arrive at that conclusion of possibly being "a sheep lined up for today"

having not seen this maybe

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

so I said earlier I'd explain the structural case against DBP and I want to do that now before EOD while I have the chance. thus far, his major moves this game have exclusively been anti-town, and near optimal wolf plays if wolf. with that said, town can make mistakes, so I tried to focus in on the moves themselves and figure out if they came from a genuine town perspective.

starting with D0, the progression of his reasoning for steering the wagon onto and mislynching benguino:
post

#439. DBP rescinds his mic drop/wet fart and pivots to "the freezin/ben interaction is wolf theater."

#448 he finds a specific ben post where ben said his read on someone depends on sunfan's opinion and calls it "very smelly."

#518 he says "I think I'm locking in on benguin."

I posted in #541 that I was worried about a ben lynch because all my reasons for it were associative and there was no wolf flipped to draw actual association from. DBP responded directly to that post in #549 and provided a framework for why the associations didn't matter as much. he said ben was specifically "couching" all his reads, always hedging, always keeping an exit: "I think X might be town, but I want to hear what sunfan has to say." "This person might be a wolf, but maybe X is instead." "If X is town, then Y is a wolf." he argued this was preemptive wiggle room, not genuine uncertainty.

then #555 he escalates it to the "escape hatch" framing, basically arguing ben's entire posting pattern was strategic maneuvering: "If a CFD happens on a bug wagon, then Ben can always 'safely' vote star instead." "If bug is town, then H&H is a wolf." "This is clear as day to me. IDK why no one else is noticing these things."
at this point, he had essentially cleared bug for the day so the failure to follow up with a vote or push on H&H seems weird.

zenith immediately responded in #565: "I didn't until you pointed it out in this way." the two of them validated each other's case on ben in real time

the connection between DBP and zenith in D0 matters for D1. DBP came into D1 with three votes on him between star, bugkid, and sunfan. he posted his will (#1013): "Im dead so here's where im at... ill at least leave a will." then "use your votes, cowards" (#1020). then when sunfan told him his despair seemed fake because zenith was dead if he just voted there, he said "I actually do but I'm beyond that despair" (#1024).

by VC #1044 he had no votes on him at all (haku moved to botchi, bugkid moved to botchi, sunfan moved to zenith), but he kept performing his dying man act til the final hammer
when he finally gave up the NV he had held throughout all of D1, he joined the zenith wagon briefly, probably because sunfan had given him an out that he couldn’t ignore, but as soon as the HnH wagon became viable, he ditched it. I saw the switch happen and moved back to zenith to put it in KitB.
HnH flipped town. zenith survived. and DBP's D2 agenda (#1058) was "revisit botchi, revisit xelnya, resolve freezin and shado." zenith isn't on it.

last thing: reading through EoD, his vibe does not seem to carry the same crazy frenzied EoD rush “WHAT ARE WE DOING” feeling that I think all of town is feeling in those moments

Feels a bit convenient, or I am overreading into shadows post on a quick read of it

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by XelNya

Feels a bit convenient, or I am overreading into shadows post on a quick read of it

ngl I kinda think that you've accidentally made a really great point that if dbp is a wolf, it makes turbo sense to kill star and shado given they both wanted him dead dead

[FreezinIce]

I am kind of sad I made that iso on DBP and nobody had anything to say about it