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#1 |
I am leonid
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MOUNTAIN VIEW
Age: 35
Posts: 8,080
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![]() You can only bet once, and you will bet all your savings, your house, and basically everything that belongs to you, in dollars.
ofc you get disqualified if your net value is negative If you win, you get back double your bet. If you lose, you get nothing. What's the lowest chance of winning that you will accept and play this gamble for, and why? |
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#2 |
Banned
![]() Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,907
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![]() 100% fuck that shit
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#3 |
FFR Player
![]() Join Date: Dec 2008
Age: 33
Posts: 6,205
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![]() I'm a Las Vegas native.
I know what gambling does to people, leonid. and to have you make light of it just makes me sick.
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#4 |
FFR Veteran
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#5 | |
FFR Player
![]() Join Date: Dec 2008
Age: 33
Posts: 6,205
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![]() Quote:
#baited
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#6 |
I am leonid
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MOUNTAIN VIEW
Age: 35
Posts: 8,080
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![]() I will prolly go for 95% or something
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#7 |
Confirmed Heartbreaker
![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Jul 2012
Age: 35
Posts: 5,859
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![]() does this have to do with some new google service you're working on because i don't like where this is going
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#8 |
FFR Player
![]() Join Date: Dec 2008
Age: 33
Posts: 6,205
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![]() new yt feature, double your views or get all your videos deleted
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#9 |
FFR Player
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 2,949
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![]() 70%
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#10 |
FFR Player
![]() Join Date: Dec 2008
Age: 33
Posts: 6,205
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![]() t͈̤̤̗̦̘͢h̨̥̺̦̭i̥s̤̪͡ ̛i̶̲s̩̪̙̻̮̭ ̗̜j̸̠̠̯̹ú̘st̜͈̬͟ͅ ͎̟͙̩ṭhe͎̘ͅ ͏͕̖͍̰b̮͉͙̤e̥̙̩̬g̡͙̺͕̬̼͙͔i̶n͔̝̤͠n̩̘͉̲in̦̣͇͈̳g̴̯̪͇͇̗̺
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#11 |
I am leonid
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MOUNTAIN VIEW
Age: 35
Posts: 8,080
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![]() nope but I do like how people relate to google every single thing I do
it's like i'm a walking google in fact i'm a mere engineer that can be replaced any time |
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#12 |
One-handed elite
![]() Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,464
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![]() 100%, hands down (pardon the pun). This simply isn't a bet I could take.
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The renegade has betrayed me. |
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#13 |
Anime Avatars ( ◜◡^)っ✂╰⋃╯
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Squat Rack
Age: 34
Posts: 10,837
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![]() Nope, never.
I've seen roulette wheels spin the same colour 20+ times in a row and a bunch of other bullshit at casinos, fuck probability. |
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#14 |
Batch Manager
Game Manager, Song Release Coordinator
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: USA
Age: 29
Posts: 14,871
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![]() 101%
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#15 |
stepmania archaeologist
![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Aug 2005
Age: 34
Posts: 4,090
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![]() It would have to be pretty dang high (in the 90%s, I think). I could recover from losing all my monetary assets, but I really really wouldn't want to have to.
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Best AAA: Policy In The Sky [Oni] (81) Best SDG: PANTS (86) Best FC: Future Invasion (93) |
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#16 |
x'); DROP TABLE FFR;--
![]() ![]() Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 6,332
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![]() Edit: misread the question
I'll say 99.99% If this were one time that is. Iterated version would go higher obv. Last edited by Reincarnate; 10-21-2013 at 11:25 PM.. |
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#17 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 3,205
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![]() The numbers are kind of arbitrary, but having no wealth would be about 20 times worse than having as much wealth as I have now; having twice as much wealth as I have now would be about 1.5 times better. So no wealth would be a loss of 19, and double wealth would be a gain of .5
.5 * x > 19 * (100-x) where 'x' is the chance of winning approximately 97.4% The % you'd reasonably be willing to accept depends on how much you value the change in wealth to no wealth and wealth to double wealth. |
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#18 |
x'); DROP TABLE FFR;--
![]() ![]() Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 6,332
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![]() It depends on your utility curve and where the different states fall
Shit is cray |
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#19 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 3,205
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![]() can you explain what you mean in layman's terms
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#20 |
I am leonid
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: MOUNTAIN VIEW
Age: 35
Posts: 8,080
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![]() This game is the kind where you MUST win at any cost.
The question asks about how low a probability can go for you to stay confident that it will happen |
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