TWG 194 - Game Thread

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

From your perspective, meaning if Haku=Town is a requirement

Then DBP being scum would necessitate an intentional scum nokill last night*



*pending one thing which remains to be seen

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Yeah, I'm saying that you would have to believe that my roleblocker softs are fake for this to make sense in that world

sending in a no-kill is suicidal because if MML actually targets a wolf partner then I am needlessly endangering my own chances of success. this would be catastrophic for one major reason

You're looking at TT vs. TTTT. the only difference is the 1-shot role cop vs the regular role cop. if I'm lying then we're in TTTT. if MML happened to target the 1-shot role cop and that person got lynched, they would flip 1-shot role cop which mathematically proves we are in TTTT instead of the TT I was trying to dupe you into. That mechanically outs me too. By no-killing I'm potentially sacrificing 2 wolves for a single gambit that isn't even needed.

so no, fakeclaiming roleblocker and then knowingly no-killing is just not a thing that ever happens in this situation

You still haven't pointed out your supposed softs

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

DBP i need you to link me that D0 soft please

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I dont know about that....

Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

You still haven't pointed out your supposed softs

because I was busy responding to your post calm your tits

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

4T is 27% vs. 16% for 2T. Not too significant a difference on its own, but compounded by the three roleblockers in the latter scenario. Four Ts with three distinct PRs is a normal setup.

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

because I was busy responding to your post calm your tits

It didn't take me too long to bring up my softclaim

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup

idk, there's a pretty big difference in total rand likelihood.

Odds of exactly VCBTTTT = (0.2734375*0.3720087*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~1.41%

Odds of Exactly VCBBBTT = (0.1640625*0.0229635*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~0.05%

The difference is by a factor of 27. That's not marginal

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Math's my weakest subject

I could use a calculater and google formulas and probably figure it out, but I won't.

DBP's being scum doesn't contradict the known set up and thats all I need to know in regards to rather or not he needs to be considered. Imma be pissed if he's wolf tho because for most of the game he was strongest townread

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Alright well my head was originally at the fact that dbp would have had to make an obscene risk as scum to claim before knowing there was another roleblocker, but I just realised scum team have a cop so lol

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Like my gut doesn't believe he's a fake.

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I don’t think we should be looking at statistical probabilities as a method to solve the setup, cause realistically both of those setups are possible

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Depending on whatever the soft is, I’m gonna choose to believe both MML and dbp or I’m gonna probably vote dbp

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I don’t think we should be looking at statistical probabilities as a method to solve the setup, cause realistically both of those setups are possible

Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

It wouldn't have really been that big a risk for DBP to claim. DBP was near insta twice and the thread climate was very much against him. I've seen scum make last ditch claims like that all the time, even though they usually aren't successful.