TWG 194 - Game Thread

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

But consider the possibility that the setup is VCBTTTT. That would be the same setup, but with the one shot rolecop. It does also look like a more typical setup. So is that consistent with what we saw?

Under 4T scenario, scum would have had to know Mikey's claim was fake. That leaves the question of why scum would fakeclaim under this scenario, as they chose a fakeclaim that would work under the setup.



Possibility: Bolth was the Rolecop, saved his shots N1, and was roleblocked N2. Thus, scum would have known the existence of a town roleblocker in the setup. Based on timing, DBP's claim could be a calculated move.

More likely possibility: DBP is the scum roleblocker, decided to claim just to try and save himself, as he was near insta twice, including when he made the claim. He was fully not expecting to survive the phase, and the fact that his claim lined up with a possibility is a lucky accident.

for this world you would have to believe that either Haku is my wolf partner and he got blocked or that I deliberately sent-in a no-kill and made an unnecessary gamble that relied on MML not targeting any of my wolf partners

and you would have to believe that I picked a single-letter fakeclaim instead of the safer double-letter fakeclaim and that I would be willing to sacrifice myself that phase even if I knew mechanically that Mikey was lying and didn't have to fakeclaim at all?

and also that I fake softed roleblocker as early as D0 and nothing else, which is the same as committing to a potential 1-letter role which was way more dangerous than a 2-letter role (again)

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

this is like the 3rd time I remember you mentioning setup would be "short" a PR if he's scum

can you explain that to me?

Well Leetic is saying i'm wrong

It wouldn't actually throw the setup into question, VCBTTTT is more reasonable than VCBBBTT

Buuuut my understanding is that if we didnt have another PR then we would likely have an SK?
And we aint got no SK at this point.

But if leetic is right then womp womp. I guess its a decision i have to make with gut on how i feel DBP has played

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

DBP,you softed d0? I didnt even notice

Links?

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Well Leetic is saying i'm wrong



Buuuut my understanding is that if we didnt have another PR then we would likely have an SK?
And we aint got no SK at this point.

But if leetic is right then womp womp. I guess its a decision i have to make with gut on how i feel DBP has played

leetic's right. the odds actually favor one of you guys being a liar

and four Ts still means no serial killer, which seems likely at this point

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

and also that I fake softed roleblocker as early as D0 and nothing else, which is the same as committing to a potential 1-letter role which was way more dangerous than a 2-letter role (again)

where'd you soft roleblocker D0?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

It wouldn't actually throw the setup into question, VCBTTTT is more reasonable than VCBBBTT

25% outcome vs. 1% outcome is effectively the same, statistically, because of how the game is rolled

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

for this world you would have to believe that either Haku is my wolf partner and he got blocked or that I deliberately sent-in a no-kill and made an unnecessary gamble that relied on MML not targeting any of my wolf partners

and you would have to believe that I picked a single-letter fakeclaim instead of the safer double-letter fakeclaim and that I would be willing to sacrifice myself that phase even if I knew mechanically that Mikey was lying and didn't have to fakeclaim at all?

and also that I fake softed roleblocker as early as D0 and nothing else, which is the same as committing to a potential 1-letter role which was way more dangerous than a 2-letter role (again)

First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good and I can't find the post in question. Secondly, why would you send a no-kill? Simple, to make your claim more believable when Mikey's flip would put it into question and to help push forward a potential mislynch. It's MyLo, it's not like scum has anything to lose.

[Bolth mannn]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

25% outcome vs. 1% outcome is effectively the same, statistically, because of how the game is rolled

I dont know about that....

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good.

Ok to be fair, he's saying for you to believe the quoted post you had to believe he faked it as early as d0

Bro they must be big on slips where your from this is like the 5th time you tried pointing out wording that had no business being pointed out.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum

If both of us are scum then explain my claim. And no, before you repeat what FFA tried to say, my second claim doesnt back up DBP at all.

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum

They're not partners. An MML/DBP world doesn't exist here for a lot of reasons

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good and I can't find the post in question. Secondly, why would you send a no-kill? Simple, to make your claim more believable when Mikey's flip would put it into question and to help push forward a potential mislynch. It's MyLo, it's not like scum has anything to lose.

Yeah, I'm saying that you would have to believe that my roleblocker softs are fake for this to make sense in that world

sending in a no-kill is suicidal because if MML actually targets a wolf partner then I am needlessly endangering my own chances of success. this would be catastrophic for one major reason

You're looking at TT vs. TTTT. the only difference is the 1-shot role cop vs the regular role cop. if I'm lying then we're in TTTT. if MML happened to target the 1-shot role cop and that person got lynched, they would flip 1-shot role cop which mathematically proves we are in TTTT instead of the TT I was trying to dupe you into. That mechanically outs me too. By no-killing I'm potentially sacrificing 2 wolves for a single gambit that isn't even needed.

so no, fakeclaiming roleblocker and then knowingly no-killing is just not a thing that ever happens in this situation

[leetic]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

Most likely, otherwise it throws the setup into question.