Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread
Okay, fine, gamble time.
Precarious.
I'm town, but I feel like the odds are stacked against me tomorrow. Whether we can afford that is ultimately going to come down to luck partially. But if we lynch correctly today, it'll be 4:1 going into the night. Presumably it will be 3:1 tomorrow, and a mislynch of me then makes it 2:1. Even if Charu's WIFOM bodyguard vs. asceticizer works, we'd still have to guess correctly the next day.
If we mislynch me here, it'll be 3:1:1. There's a chance this ends the game for town, because if both anti-town hit town, it's 1:1:1 tomorrow. But there's also a chance we insta-win if the wolf and SK hit each other, and the SK isn't bulletproof. There's also the possibility of one killing the other and one killing town (2:1), or even the SK killing town and the wolf hitting bulletproof SK (leading to 2:1:1 tomorrow). I'll take what amounts to night RNG over this situation, because this way at least clears my reads and actions if we go to 2:1 or 2:1:1.
Okay, fine, gamble time.
Precarious.
I'm town, but I feel like the odds are stacked against me tomorrow. Whether we can afford that is ultimately going to come down to luck partially. But if we lynch correctly today, it'll be 4:1 going into the night. Presumably it will be 3:1 tomorrow, and a mislynch of me then makes it 2:1. Even if Charu's WIFOM bodyguard vs. asceticizer works, we'd still have to guess correctly the next day.
If we mislynch me here, it'll be 3:1:1. There's a chance this ends the game for town, because if both anti-town hit town, it's 1:1:1 tomorrow. But there's also a chance we insta-win if the wolf and SK hit each other, and the SK isn't bulletproof. There's also the possibility of one killing the other and one killing town (2:1), or even the SK killing town and the wolf hitting bulletproof SK (leading to 2:1:1 tomorrow). I'll take what amounts to night RNG over this situation, because this way at least clears my reads and actions if we go to 2:1 or 2:1:1.
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