TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 05:19 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Originally posted by _Zenith_

...You then completely contradict this hypothetical and finally notice that Shadow has died, disproving anything you were trying to make a point of in the first paragraph of this post...

This part is tripping me up.

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 05:33 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

for the record, I'm still here
almost done with my post

**Precarious** · 10-15-2016, 05:36 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Originally posted by _Zenith_

First section is literally bullshit. Shadow died, you even state so. Why do you even have the first sentence in this post say what it does and why the hell do you word �Frame Shadow� in such a way that you are basing a hypothetical situation as a truth? How can a frame happen on a dead PR? This screams you aren�t town in more ways than one. Firstly, town is definitely going to keep track of who dies because it is information that can be used to stem into further threads of suspicion; in the case a player suddenly finds himself at all nulls or doesn�t know where to continue off from, knowing exactly what the kills were is one of the best starting points. You clearly demonstrate that this isn�t the case.

You then completely contradict this hypothetical and finally notice that Shadow has died, disproving anything you were trying to make a point of in the first paragraph of this post.

My point is simply this: Town is never going to hypothesize a death in the manner you do here. Your post here shows that you�re digging for tinfoil/trying to show you�ve done work to live when this isn�t the case when you start to dig deeper in your posts (like I am now doing). Speaking further of the �missing nightkill� shouldn�t even be happening after a first realization post like I did because unless you already have the knowledge of what happened (and at that case you can simply stage a reaction based from other player reactions), it�ll always be a hypothetical dead end since there is no fact to it.

Ending this now because I need to be right back, but this is a good point to start off on why I�m voting you right now.

This is your case? Really?

You stated earlier that you're not good with mechanics, so I'll try to explain in more detail how that first paragraph could be pertinent.

Shado claimed Vig. He stated that he would shoot Haku last night in order to prove himself. The most likely course of action is that he was killed with the anticipation that Haku's death would have cleared him.

But there are other possibilities. If the wolves chose to withhold a kill, then there would only be two kills last night: Shado-->Haku, and whoever the SK targeted (although for all the wolves knew, Shado could have been the SK). This would have prevented Shado from being mechanically cleared. Under this scenario, there would be less than three kills, which could have theoretically left Shado vulnerable to accusations of using an anti-town kill as vig cover.

Now, if Shado died, why is this relevant? Because in this scenario it wasn't the wolves that killed Shado, it was the SK. It's possible, albeit very unlikely (which I'll explain below) that the wolves choose to withhold a kill in order to frame Shado, not realizing that the SK would target him.

Now, this is a very unlikely scenario for a whole bunch of reasons, I merely point out that it's technically possible. The main hangup is that Shado stated an intent during EoD to shoot Haku, a wolf. This would further buttress Shado's claim of a vig kill even in the absence of a third kill. Certainly we would examine the possibility of a block or a duplication or a misdirection, and it would also make it so Shado could only be a vig or the SK (I assume the wolves can't kill themselves) unless the very unlikely possibility of the SK targeting Haku despite Shado's claim came to pass (and why would it?). There's also the fact that such misdirection has questionable payoff at best, given that the wolves would be essentially sacrificing a night kill for the very limited benefit of maybe causing a mislynch the next day. And of course if the SK did target Shado, they would waste a nightkill for nothing. Obviously, this scenario is the most unlikely, and I dismiss it as such. I simply note that it's one possible permutation for what happened last night.

I eagerly await an actual response to my case against you.

**thesunfan** · 10-15-2016, 05:39 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Psycho (1)- Xel
dfr (1)- Prec
Prec (1)- Zenith

**Precarious** · 10-15-2016, 05:39 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

I'm going to make dinner and watch football, but once I'm done cooking I'll just keep my laptop by me while I'm watching so I'll be able to work on my last isos.

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 05:58 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Code:

execute followthevote.exe

LOADING
...
...
READY!

Zeeeeeenith

last time, Zenith was at -50 for jumping in as a replacement and not putting a vote down. can I fault him? a little, but not so much. Let's see how he stacks up this time.

He spent a nice part of the day looking at Hakulyte and openly calling his gameplay "bad".

Originally posted by _Zenith_

juckter

Here's his first vote.
His biggest reason for voting the juck was because of:

Originally posted by _Zenith_

Feel like I'll be tagging juckter or botchi with my vote this phase (I have it among good grounds a wolf resides in the lower post count of people)

personally I don't like this too much since it's not always a guarantee that a wolf is a low poster. I mean, I know he's not wrong, but this is hindsight and can't be argued too reliably. it's not the worst thing for someone who just replaced in

Originally posted by _Zenith_

MML came into the game inaccurate and wrong on a few things, and I didn't see him rescind those yet. Not only that, his attitude is unorthodox for MML as usual (I've played several town games with MML, this is very uncharacteristic) and far too aggressive and maybe I'm biased in that sense because I'd lynch him on those grounds alone.

I need to look at the posts more closely again but I saw his larger post and most of that was analytically wrong in areas. To me, it seems like he's bolstering a front of activity to get by and not actually reading in depth and being super aggressive in the process which doesn't reflect his normal town meta in the slightest.

MixMasterLar

Here's his second vote. I agree with his read and this vote is fine. positive points, especially since he's willing to change his vote based on #HOTREADS

Originally posted by _Zenith_

juckter

final vote. hopped back because...

Originally posted by _Zenith_

The fact of lying about being online and trying to reread people and it took hours to make his presence known is Lynch status imo.

this is gud and a nice reaction. POSITIVE POINTS

VERDICT:
Zenith looks pretty solid here. Good performance and votes that don't feel premeditated.
TOWN LEAN

DFR

Charu

psychoangel

prepreprecarious

Originally posted by Precarious

I'm really not liking the inactives. I was already sort of suspicious of botchi, who's disappeared entirely, and I'm increasingly bothered by juckter. Juckter, when he has posted, has typically tended toward analysis and content. but somewhat vaguely. His style looks worse by its absence. It's not hard to associate the inactivity with being overly careful to avoid traceable reads and content.

Juckter gets my vote for the moment at least.

here's his first vote. It's for the inactive. He was right with this one, kinda like zenith above. It's ok. neutral-ish points
let's see how he ends up on DFR

Originally posted by Precarious

Speaking of trending down,

DFR's playstyle is a less interactive, less solving version of what I've seen in previous games, and yet no one challenges them. They've been perfectly content to float along undisturbed, seemingly more interested in staying out of the fire than mixing it up. On iso, their content looks a little better than I expected, but at the same time it's perfunctory. There's just the edges of content here, enough to seem like they're participating (and in line with their meta to some degree--which would be good if it weren't easily exploitable), but not enough to actually push anything to happen, either with them or with others.

Mellon has been underinvolved all game. I don't know what they normally play like, but what I've seen here isn't good. And although I'm taking my vote off juckter for now (in light of his situation), I'm still not thrilled there. I don't want to pile on low content/low activity people exclusively, because there's no way that's the whole wolfpack and sk, but there are anti-town people in that group for sure.

For now, danceflashrevo, although this could just as easily be a mellon vote.

ok, here's the vote
looking back for context... it's pretty boring, and there isn't much. It's at least backed up with an argument and doesn't seem terribly forced as he's been building the case on DFR for a bit now.

VERDICT
still in town mode from last F-T-V

MixMasterLarDude

XelNya

raeko

her first and only vote of this game is...

Originally posted by mellonxcollie

juckter

CONTEXT TIME:

Originally posted by mellonxcollie

I was making this as part of my reads list, but hey Juckter if you are here, wanna respond to this directly?

You've posted even less than I have and of those posts, many of them are just excuses or promises to do things that never end up happening.

You've been pretty inactive, but active enough to check into the thread and it seems like you have a surface level knowledge of what is going on

I understand having IRL stuff happening, especially things such as internet issues. Can you explain why you've just popped in so much? Basically, why keep making these promises and not following through?

dis post is gud post

Originally posted by mellonxcollie

It is also weird because he did not take his own extremely vague advice. "If you are town, do this" and then he proceeded to not do those things. It seems like he just wanted to check into the thread, give the illusion of caring/being active and then gtfo

Follow the vote seems like an easy way to a) not think too much about the game or b) justify things that already fit a specific agenda. It seems like a way to appear to be putting in work while actually just being extremely vague with his reasoning

just responding because I can
LOL @ my hypocrisy
I fell asleep in my super comfortable computer chair(this has happened before)
I think you might change your opinion on the whole FOLLOW_THE_VOTE matter after observing this post

VERDICT
I think raeko definitely stepped up her game last phase, and was even stepping on juckter before he made his nail-in-the-coffin post
TOWN LEAN

TL;DR

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 06:04 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

and to make a "current standings" list, here we go:

Charu (obv)
Psychoangel / Raeko
Zenith
Precarious
DFR

Xel

MML

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 06:05 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

forgot to drop the MML vote

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 06:09 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

I am playing in another tournament starting some time between 8-9 PM server time and I'm hoping to be back in time
me moving my vote will be difficult

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 06:22 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

man this thread is bumpin'

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 06:25 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Quite

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 06:26 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Haven't read your latest iteration of "follow the vote" but yee

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 06:31 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Originally posted by Charu

Haven't read your latest iteration of "follow the vote" but yee

it's bigger and bulkier than the last

**MixMasterLar** · 10-15-2016, 06:42 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Originally posted by Charu

Hee hee hee

I'll be dancing in glee if it's the correct assumption.

That'll be fucking hysterical
But the guy you are thinking of probably didn't do that because even he admitted like an hour before EoD that you and Shado where locked clear, as much as it pained him to say it.

Originally posted by danceflashrevo

okay i read the thread and it makes sense i guess. i'm just having a hard time understanding the logic behind how to approach sk.

whaddya mean the question made no sense?

This whole series of posts: what ? Charu already pointed out all of that though.

[QUOTE=Precarious;4485247
***
I'll be shocked as shit if DPB/psycho turns out to be power role town, given that Gradiant flipped cop, Shado flipped vig, and Charu remains un-CCed. So I'm not sure what you're going for here. Psycho is either vanilla town or anti-town by simple logic, we're really out of other alternatives.
***[/QUOTE]

Oh I was suggesting that she was SK/Anti-town with that, not a town-aligned role.

Originally posted by Hakulyte

The Best Belated Death Post

Originally posted by Precarious

Zenith: Started out the day with several content posts, mixed in with a weird shit post. Has not posted anything in about 30 hours. His last post was the one I used to build a case as Zenith as SK. He has not responded to me, nor to anyone else. I know he's been on FFR generally because I saw he already AAAed the three new songs of the week which were released last night. While he may be having some issues with the forums yet (the pages still take a long time to load for me), his complete disappearance as soon as he was challenged feels like ducking the heat and hoping that we all get distracted by some other case. Fairly firm anti-town read, likely SK.

***
danceflashrevo: The case here remains clear. I'll go through it in detail (this will be long, so I'll put the other reads in my next post), because today only serves to reinforce the first part of it.

Stylistically, DFR's posts today (and all game in fact) are very similar to what I've seen in previous games from him. I don't have the meta knowledge some of you might, but in the short time I've been here I've seen some progression in DFR's play. Although it's somewhat laid back, town DFR does express opinions (even if diffidently) and is willing to pursue leads. This seemed to be how DFR started this game, which looked good, but it felt like DFR was content to sit back and less inclined to probe or opine as the game went on. Observationally and on gut, something felt wrong.

DFR's game came apart when I voted them (see post #1543). It's always a shock to the system when you're voted (particularly as a wolf), and DFR succumbed to the most basic of instincts, the counterattack. The problem was that said counterattack on me confirmed indisputable anti-town behavior by DFR.

This was a clear OMGUS push, including the needless sarcastic flourish ("You decide on FFR TWG CLIX!!"). The problem is, it was based on something completely removed from the actual game. At that time, Charu had been townreading me frequently and aggressively. This wasn't a simple misread; it had been a theme of just about all of Charu's gut reads/roster runs to that point. That suggests that DFR had not been actually following the thread at all. Now, that's somewhat understandable. People get busy. The games here move insanely fast. BUT rather than simply saying "I've been busy, I'll catch up" (as DFR has had no problem doing a bunch of other times in this thread), he instead chose to make a roster run that was not based on actual work/reads. This suggests he simply wanted to make reads in order to create the illusion of towniness, and combined with his accusation get the pressure of a vote off of him. But making reads based on nothing is anti-town, and given its implications, also dishonest.

(I'll also note that DFR town-read Haku and nulled a floundering Juckter, which will be pertinent in a moment).

EoD arrived yesterday and DFR seemed to be in trouble. There was a slightly town-leaning post when DFR posted this:

A town player, when facing a mislynch, should try to leave some information behind, because the mislynch will at least clear them and show that they were acting in good faith. The information may or may not be correct, but at least we would know it's not deliberately deceptive. However, DFR still provides no reads. People think I post empty mechanics, but this post offers nothing that we couldn't have worked out ourselves. There are no reads, no real insights, no comments or observations on what led to this point. A wolf can do this too, after all; while it will be discredited with the flip, it's a good way to simulate towniness and perhaps push off the lynch.

As EoD continued and it became clear that DFR wasn't outright doomed, there were some weirdly prescient, defensive posts.

This is a somewhat odd concern, and seems to foreshadow Juckter's flip.

Then, right after Charu posted a suggestion to Shado to shoot Haku, DFR posted this:

This is the same DFR who had been townreading Haku fairly consistently. If a wolf DFR knew scummate Haku was going to be shot, then it's time to distance.

We also had Haku end up choosing Juckter over DFR, even though we now know that Juckter was a wolf. What was the benefit to the wolves? Haku was likely doomed by vig, so any cred for voting another wolf was meaningless. Had Haku voted a town DFR and then been shot, there was at least a chance Juckter could wiggle out of it. As it went down, two wolves were doomed for sure. The only payoff is if the suddenly distancing DFR could get clear of the carnage.

Now, move to today. Because wagon alternative Juckter flips red, much of the heat on DFR dissipates. And DFR goes back to doing what made me suspicious in the first place: nothing. There are still no reads, nor any posts meaningfully engaging in the game. There are occasional defenses when problems in DFR's profile are raised (see mellon's post #1841 and the conversation that follows). But now that people are townreading DFR to some degree, he is content to sit back. This is despite the fact that we have a wolf and an SK still out there. We have a reason to continue searching. Players interested more in personal survival than ferreting out anti-town look particularly bad now, because survival is at a special premium for both wolf and SK. Neither can die and still win the game.

To me, DFR profiles as a strong wolf read, stronger than when I initially voted them, stronger even than during EoD. Could I be wrong? Sure.

But I doubt it.

danceflashrevo

Oh wow. I can't really argue with that. Really good post here.

Originally posted by Charu

I don't think Zenith is the SK

That your guy telling you that, or is there more to this? Talk to me Charu

Originally posted by danceflashrevo

I wanted to put content. I also had misread charu saying town/wolf for some reason a lot (not evidenced in my posts but I really did, though I don't expect you to believe me). And yeah, that's really really lame of me to misread that coupled with being legitimately busy and wanting to post content and not having the time to read through the entire thread. I hadn't had a town or scum lean on you and misremembered charu's views of you. I didn't make any indication whether or not you were scum or town on it either, simply brought it up. So I wouldn't say I made a read from it. Really it's just poor play by my part and really embarassing but I'll just have to suck it up and continue trying to convince you all that I am town.

called this would happen lul. i wouldn't say I nulled him, i only did at the end. please scum read me on my shit reads.

Right, I had no useful information to leave behind. My reads are shit, it'd be wrong anyways. The only useful information that I can give is that I'm town and I'm a waste of a lynch or shot. I gave most of my insights and I really haven't had any conclusion on the majority of the leftover players, which is bad play on my part. Sorry. And yeah the post offers something you could've worked out yourselves. EVERYTHING THAT I POST COULD BE WORKED OUT YOURSELVES BECAUSE I'M BAD. I DON'T KNOW WHAT I'M DOING EVER GOD DAMMIT. It's hard to be original and I don't have a great track record of being great on my own. At this point I was just trying to give off as much as I could. Also weird that you include this little bit about yourself, seems kinda... unnecessary?

are you serious? i think that's a legitimate concern, you know, because you'd be lynching a townie on a shit read he had. (I'm a he btw).

sorry that i made a joke. will think about not posting jokes next time.

I think he's smarter than that, he was hella awkward at EoD and that just made his chances worse.

Trust me I'm trying, at this point I still feel I need to defend myself and help people know my role. And yeah garbage player is still garbage, I'm just trying to be more active, which I feel like I've done decently if there's not a Clemson football game happening (clemson won in ot btw holy shit what a game).

Don't jump to conclusions about my work ethic buddy.

k

Is your defense that your a shit player? Haku pulled that shit and it was disgusting back then.

Oh also

I'll just have to suck it up and continue trying to convince you all that I am town.

Why don't you try not appearing like anything and just solving the game?Only wolves care about if they look town. If a town is trying to solve the game then the fact that they are green will reveal itself in time

Basically more work less bitching please.

Originally posted by danceflashrevo

Who would you say the weakest player in the game is? Not based on town read but in general.

STOP

MAKING

EXCUSES

Originally posted by _Zenith_

Another thing, Isolating someone like Precarious for example is hemorrhaging in the sense the majority of posts are unnecessarily long.

lol, yeah agreed.

Originally posted by danceflashrevo

Charu I don't necessarily follow but whatever tickles your tendies in such a curious manner go for it I guess

We don't fetish shame on FFR

Originally posted by _Zenith_

Holy shit I found something incredible about Precarious.

It wholeheartedly now warrants this: Precarious

You're definitely anti-town in this game (not sure which but I don't give a shit, you're not town).

Originally posted by _Zenith_

First section is literally bullshit. Shadow died, you even state so. Why do you even have the first sentence in this post say what it does and why the hell do you word �Frame Shadow� in such a way that you are basing a hypothetical situation as a truth? How can a frame happen on a dead PR? This screams you aren�t town in more ways than one. Firstly, town is definitely going to keep track of who dies because it is information that can be used to stem into further threads of suspicion; in the case a player suddenly finds himself at all nulls or doesn�t know where to continue off from, knowing exactly what the kills were is one of the best starting points. You clearly demonstrate that this isn�t the case.

You then completely contradict this hypothetical and finally notice that Shadow has died, disproving anything you were trying to make a point of in the first paragraph of this post.

My point is simply this: Town is never going to hypothesize a death in the manner you do here. Your post here shows that you�re digging for tinfoil/trying to show you�ve done work to live when this isn�t the case when you start to dig deeper in your posts (like I am now doing). Speaking further of the �missing nightkill� shouldn�t even be happening after a first realization post like I did because unless you already have the knowledge of what happened (and at that case you can simply stage a reaction based from other player reactions), it�ll always be a hypothetical dead end since there is no fact to it.

Ending this now because I need to be right back, but this is a good point to start off on why I�m voting you right now.

Originally posted by Precarious

***
If psycho isn't town, then she's more likely to be SK than a wolf.
***

I agree(d back when I pointed this out awhile ago)

Originally posted by Precarious

Now, this is a very unlikely scenario

And that's where all those paragraphs about it should have both started and ended Jesus Fleming Chili.

Originally posted by roundbox

forgot to drop the MML vote

If you're voting me simply because I voted Pyscho then that's weak.

I 100% did vote Pyscho because of DPB though, I admit that and have already admitted that (I even said that about the same time I made the vote) so if you wanna hate go ahead and hate.

But I feel highly misrepresented in my case considering I've expanded on my thoughts since.

Also MixMasterLarDude? really? Is BeatMakerLard too hard of a pun to use you really gotta be boring with it?

**mellonxcollie** · 10-15-2016, 06:42 PM

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Gotta do some catching up and I'll make my vote

Don't think I will be around for EoD (trying to actually go to Round One this time)

TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

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