TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Or am I just missing something?

The point is he came In and pushed on a wolf, so it isn't likely he is on their team.
I mean DFR might also be scum but we know Juckter was so that's why him voting Juckter over DFR is positive

I mean, Pyscho could sfill be the SK but DPB's meta doesnt really support that nor is there yet a reason to seriously suspect that. I honestly have to place him at null for now.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Anyway Xel I'm glad you see my point about EoD. Let's get some juicy Xel post tonight my man give me your thoughts on EoD and people's reaction to it now

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Mechanically three options happened:

Stacked Kill
BP was popped on SK
BP was popped on Charu

Do you get a notification if BP gets popped? I forget and am too lazy to look it up right now but if not then rip (if it was charu for example, rip).

Stacked kill might be the case, but it's a damn confusing one. Night should have had 3 KP with Vigi+Maf+SK. We know Shado called out his shot on Hakulyte, so that solves that mystery. The question is, who did each faction kill? Why would the SK kill Hakulyte if they knew the vigi was going to shoot him? I imagine the mafia wanted to trade a to-be-confirmed town in Shado since they knew they'd be losing a member to his gun.
So did the SK shoot Hakulyte or Shado?? Or did they shoot Charu, ROFL

Mafia obviously didn't shoot Hakulyte, so they could have shot the SK. This would mean the SK shot Shado...? Why? The shot wasn't declared on the SK, obviously, so he had no real motivation to ice him especially since he's a one-shot.

The only thing that could have happened that would flip this whole game on its head is if we had an Asceticizer and Charu is actually anti-town, but that's jumping off of the deep end.

These night kills are something else

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

I'm simply going to assume SK and wolves doubled up on Shado, which probably points to a new player being the SK because to be perfectly honest a vet would have shot one of our scum leans knowing that wolves where likely to shoot confirmed town

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Following that line of thought, the two likely to be so inexperience as to double up on Shado would be Raeko and DFR, I think.

Charu is confirmed, Xel knows better and Pre's mechanic talk strongly implies he would easily predict that outcome.

Obviously this observation isn't enough to really push a lynch but I'm pretty sure our SK resides between them. Also of note like half of you already think DFR seems scummy enough to lynch so that might be an indication on who the SK is.

Thoughts?

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

I'm probably not going to get followed, but whatever.

psychoangel691

Probably going to switch to DFR because I think juckter can still produce content that's valuable tomorrow.

Personally, I think DFR has contributed more. And if that trend continues they will produce more content tomorrow too

I'd prefer juckter gone because at least DFR is putting in some effort and is here to defend their position

Well, I don't want to kill DFR after all.

juckter

So what's weird is....Haku was bussing her partner? I mean, if DFR was town and with votes that close why go for Juckter in this case? Even if Haku gets lynched the next day because of the suspicion that's still another 48 hours of Juckter not being dead.

I don't know how to take it if i'm being honest, but maybe we did have wolf/wolf as the wagon and Haku had to decide which partner to keep.

But I doubt she initially wanted to lynch a wolf, so Pyscho is actually starting to look town to me

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

General thoughts on the night:

There are several scenarios accounting for the missing kill. Technically, the wolves could have purposely withheld a kill, in an attempt to frame Shado (fewer than three kills might call into question whether or not he represented an actual third killing power). However, this is unlikely given that Shado announced at EoD that he was targeting Haku (as Haku is now shown to be a wolf, they would have known Haku's death would further cement Shado's claim, meaning any false claimant to Vig/Vengeful would probably be lynched first).

Given the above, it would be imprudent for the wolves not to act. We also know that Shado was killed (which does at last fully confirm him obviously), which was most likely a wolf action (eliminating confirmed town is more valuable to them than to the SK, who doesn't have a team/special knowledge, although two confirmed/pseudo-confirmed town would pose a serious threat to any anti-town faction in the endgame).

It's thus very possible that Shado was doubled, which makes more sense the more I think about it. Although the SK might have bet on the wolves targeting Shado, all remaining scenarios require a failed kill. An attempt on Charu seems unlikely, as such an attempt would be expected to fail ahead of time. The only other block possibility is 1-shot protection of the SK, which both assumes a 1-shot bulletproof SK, and assumes the wolves targeted that player. This seems unlikely as targeting a player other than Shado would be foolhardy for them; since they would have known Shado was not a wolf, they would have likely suspected he was telling the truth (or was possibly the SK). There was no one other than Charu that the SK could have targeted with expectation of failure, so it's unlikely that player was blocked.

And now back to what matters.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

General thoughts on the night:

There are several scenarios accounting for the missing kill. Technically, the wolves could have purposely withheld a kill, in an attempt to frame Shado (fewer than three kills might call into question whether or not he represented an actual third killing power). However, this is unlikely given that Shado announced at EoD that he was targeting Haku (as Haku is now shown to be a wolf, they would have known Haku's death would further cement Shado's claim, meaning any false claimant to Vig/Vengeful would probably be lynched first).

Given the above, it would be imprudent for the wolves not to act. We also know that Shado was killed (which does at last fully confirm him obviously), which was most likely a wolf action (eliminating confirmed town is more valuable to them than to the SK, who doesn't have a team/special knowledge, although two confirmed/pseudo-confirmed town would pose a serious threat to any anti-town faction in the endgame).

It's thus very possible that Shado was doubled, which makes more sense the more I think about it. Although the SK might have bet on the wolves targeting Shado, all remaining scenarios require a failed kill. An attempt on Charu seems unlikely, as such an attempt would be expected to fail ahead of time. The only other block possibility is 1-shot protection of the SK, which both assumes a 1-shot bulletproof SK, and assumes the wolves targeted that player. This seems unlikely as targeting a player other than Shado would be foolhardy for them; since they would have known Shado was not a wolf, they would have likely suspected he was telling the truth (or was possibly the SK). There was no one other than Charu that the SK could have targeted with expectation of failure, so it's unlikely that player was blocked.

And now back to what matters.

I feel like I could respond to this entire post by simply typing out "no shit"

Therefore I believe this to be a bad post.

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

rly

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

The man posts his whole thought process and you get angry at him for it

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

was wrong wit u

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Reading through the new stuff, I see there's some suspicion of me, which I assume is due to Juckter flipping wolf, while I advocated for a different lynch. This makes little sense to me, as everything that has happened fits my reads:

Current probable scum pool is DFR, one of Haku/Xel, one of subs/Juckter. SK is more difficult, but I'd look for low and/or empty activity.

And for the record, I still think we should lynch DFR. My reasoning still applies; the OMGUS push onto me yesterday indicated a player who hadn't actually been following along, as the post made an obvious and objective mistake. In addition to the basic issues of (1) dishonesty and (2) valuing self-preservation over making legitimate reads, wolves are less likely to be reading carefully as they already know player alignment, which means they're more concerned with how people perceive them than what they think about the broader game.

Having said that, I'm also suspicious of Zenith, who screwed up earlier and is now my leading candidate for the other anti-town player, probably the serial killer.

An important part of this game is keeping track of what people know, what people don't know, and why. Zenith starts out by making an effort to discredit me through repetition:

Mechanically three options happened:

Stacked Kill
BP was popped on SK
BP was popped on Charu

Do you get a notification if BP gets popped? I forget and am too lazy to look it up right now but if not then rip (if it was charu for example, rip).

Gonna say this now after seeing Juckter flip wolf I'm now really looking at Precarious as Anti-Town.

Little tinfoil here, but I believe the last wolf may reside in a more vet player which leaves me at Roundbox/Xelnya as potentially the last one.

Now being that alone is tinfoil (mainly feel this way because of Gradiant's death d0), I'm actually more heavily keen on Precarious as a very good candidate for anti-town here.

I'll have to start building a case on him and do more isolations but yeah, that's where I am after seeing not one but two wolf flips.

1. danceflashgun (danceflashrevo) - Isolation
2. Charuzard (Charu) - PR
3. psychoangel691 - Town Lean
4. PriCARius (Precarious) - Suspect
5. boundrocks (roundbox) - Isolation
6. MixMasterLar - Isolation (Still feel bad about his fucking shit attitude and annoying aggression)
7. Sell?Nah (XelNya) - Isolation
8. melanxcholy (mellonxcollie) - Town Lean

Where I'm at with reads and where I need to start looking this phase.

This repetition seems like overkill, but the second and third posts do contain some new information each time, so there's nothing objectively wrong with them. However, that's not the case when he goes to the well for the fourth time.

While refusing to answer someone else's questions, he again turns to me:

It'd make sense of why Botchi was doing good if you want to look at this at surface level, but it isn't enough to go ahead and claim such on MML.

I'm still looking at Precarious as a likely SK candidate.

And here he errs mechanically.

According to his first quoted post, his reason for suspecting me is the Juckter situation. As I said, I can only assume this is because I was leading an alternative wagon, since Juckter had been hugely inactive to the point that his reads (disqualified anyway) are basically irrelevant. To me, this suggests he thinks I was trying to protect Juckter by lynching someone else. Setting aside that my case against DFR far predates EoD anyway, the problem is that Zenith's apparent logic should paint me as a wolf. But instead, he paints me as a serial killer. Note: a serial killer in mafia/werewolf games has, by definition, no allies and no special alignment knowledge. If I was a serial killer, I would have no incentive to protect anyone and would in fact be as motivated as a town player to kill wolves. Herein lies the contradiction. If he thinks I'm a serial killer, he can only arrive at that through a gut read or post analysis. But his initial case against me (see the first quoted post) relies on Juckter flipping red, not on anything I've said or any feeling he might have had about me.

I conclude that Zenith is projecting himself onto me inadvertently, which would explain his lapse in accusatory logic.

***

TLDR: I want DFR's pelt on my wall and I should probably start calling Zenith Zodiac again. Shouldn't I, Mr. Cruz?

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

The man posts his whole thought process and you get angry at him for it

His whole thought process could be boiled down to "kills got doubled stacked" which has already been stated and the whole post comes off as white noise to me. It's as bad as you ignoring my questions to you and trying to defend him.

Read my post, and actually play the game Xel



Anyhow:

Reading through the new stuff, I see there's some suspicion of me, which I assume is due to Juckter flipping wolf, while I advocated for a different lynch. This makes little sense to me, as everything that has happened fits my reads:



And for the record, I still think we should lynch DFR. My reasoning still applies; the OMGUS push onto me yesterday indicated a player who hadn't actually been following along, as the post made an obvious and objective mistake. In addition to the basic issues of (1) dishonesty and (2) valuing self-preservation over making legitimate reads, wolves are less likely to be reading carefully as they already know player alignment, which means they're more concerned with how people perceive them than what they think about the broader game.

Having said that, I'm also suspicious of Zenith, who screwed up earlier and is now my leading candidate for the other anti-town player, probably the serial killer.

An important part of this game is keeping track of what people know, what people don't know, and why. Zenith starts out by making an effort to discredit me through repetition:







This repetition seems like overkill, but the second and third posts do contain some new information each time, so there's nothing objectively wrong with them. However, that's not the case when he goes to the well for the fourth time.

While refusing to answer someone else's questions, he again turns to me:



And here he errs mechanically.

According to his first quoted post, his reason for suspecting me is the Juckter situation. As I said, I can only assume this is because I was leading an alternative wagon, since Juckter had been hugely inactive to the point that his reads (disqualified anyway) are basically irrelevant. To me, this suggests he thinks I was trying to protect Juckter by lynching someone else. Setting aside that my case against DFR far predates EoD anyway, the problem is that Zenith's apparent logic should paint me as a wolf. But instead, he paints me as a serial killer. Note: a serial killer in mafia/werewolf games has, by definition, no allies and no special alignment knowledge. If I was a serial killer, I would have no incentive to protect anyone and would in fact be as motivated as a town player to kill wolves. Herein lies the contradiction. If he thinks I'm a serial killer, he can only arrive at that through a gut read or post analysis. But his initial case against me (see the first quoted post) relies on Juckter flipping red, not on anything I've said or any feeling he might have had about me.

I conclude that Zenith is projecting himself onto me inadvertently, which would explain his lapse in accusatory logic.

***

TLDR: I want DFR's pelt on my wall and I should probably start calling Zenith Zodiac again. Shouldn't I, Mr. Cruz?

This is a good post and I think I like the thought process, although I'm not likely to vote Zenith atm

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

The point is he came In and pushed on a wolf, so it isn't likely he is on their team.
I mean DFR might also be scum but we know Juckter was so that's why him voting Juckter over DFR is positive

I mean, Pyscho could sfill be the SK but DPB's meta doesnt really support that nor is there yet a reason to seriously suspect that. I honestly have to place him at null for now.

Anyway Xel I'm glad you see my point about EoD. Let's get some juicy Xel post tonight my man give me your thoughts on EoD and people's reaction to it now

*Flips table*

[XelNya]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

The point is he came In and pushed on a wolf, so it isn't likely he is on their team.
I mean DFR might also be scum but we know Juckter was so that's why him voting Juckter over DFR is positive

Also nice circular structure of this statement.