Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

[Fantasticone]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

How many D9 players in 2020.

[Rapta]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

I played osu for a month and got to rank 1K so I assume there's around that many d7 players at least

[_Zenith_]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

I played osu for a month and got to rank 1K so I assume there's around that many d7 players at least

If you only did 4K to reach that rank then no, there isn't that many 4k D7 players as you are thinking.

Most of the upper 1000 on Mania play more than just 4K.

[Rapta]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

If you only did 4K to reach that rank then no, there isn't that many 4k D7 players as you are thinking.

Most of the upper 1000 on Mania play more than just 4K.

Yeah I only did 4k

That makes sense.

[TheFFRPerson]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

Considering the rate of people being promoted to D7 I think maybe in like 2020 there will be 100 D7 people, including the inactive. Wait, you don't like Comic Sans?

[Soul Evans]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

You can pretty much reach to #400 rank if you're quite good like AJ or Urusai (oldcartoon) but yeah 7k pretty much dominates the whole game in terms of performance points, but i would say, my estimate for D7 players starts from #200 above rank in mania that is.

[Ghost_Medley]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

2 days ago i'd have to say Dec. 7, 2021 as my bet

[RenegadeLucien]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

I'll say the end of 2017.

[Kawaii025]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

I would say late 2018. There's always new players discovering the site and people are skillboosting, so I think it'll happen then. But who knows, it could be earlier because there seems to be a lot of skillboosting during OT's.

[Dynam0]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

How many D9 players in 2020.

If people improve at the rate I do/did then hypothetically it would take 20 years of activity...so nobody? Then again there's dudes like Walrus and Rapta who got to D7 within a relatively short time...and other things like genetics become important in D8 territory so..

[rayword45]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

I wanna make my own graph using overall time on the website with a dead gap in 2010

My skill boosting makes no sense

[Dynam0]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

Yeah that graph had a lot of fudge-factor in it before D5 or so because I had no real way of knowing exactly when I was D1-4. With newer players it would be cool to check the stats and try to normalize it based on an average playing time per week basis

[Walrusizer]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

20 years to d9 doesnt seem too bad, see you guys when im a grandfather or some shit

[inDheart]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

i think there would be a push to create D8 before D7 ever got that big tbh

[TC_Halogen]

Re: Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

Won't happen. Loss of interest/college/work will intervene. Unless some unforeseen huge influx of newcomers suddenly pours into the site, getting more than double the 80% of your 61 won't happen. The necessary exponential growth you claim is viable has never come close to happening so why would it now when this site isn't anywhere near the height of it's activity? Enlighten me old sport

In my explanation post I mentioned that with linear growth, three years seemed viable; PrawnSkunk used past data to general a date even sooner than that using purely linear growth.

That 80% was a generalization of manual labor of checking level ranks against the skill ratings assigned by the site, and after some assessment, it seems like 80% was a massive undercut -- nearly all of the players who are listed as D7 would be put in D7 through manual checks in some way or another (the over-estimation seems to be more common in the D4-D6 area)

As previously mentioned by numerous other people, there are a large number of players who come from other rhythm games that may arrive purely out of curiosity/desire to experiment; this is due in part to some players overlapping in multiple communities and giving subtle exposure (a number of players currently in D7 also actively play either StepMania or osu!mania and those communities have players from other communities, etc).