TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

[rzr]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

I mean yeah we messed up lynching Xiz, but he kinda put the nail in his own coffin at first. Town clearly deserves to win if the wolves felt so intimidated last night they thought kamikaze-ing Tokzic was their absolute best plan.

[YoshL]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

Votes from post 1437 to post 1692
Night in 21:00:30
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 3 -- dLGN -- AragakiAyase (57), DaBackpack (50), rzr (13)
• 1 -- DaBackpack -- storn42 (15)
• 1 -- storn42 -- dLGN (88)
• .01 -- roundbox -- Phantom
• 3 -- not voting -- botchi246 (0), roundbox (10), XelNya (16)

2 TIL INSTA

[rzr]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

i don't have a corny case of quotes and some narrative I'd like to construct to paint a pretty mafia picture for you, sorry. I don't play like that.

part of that is because storn has done almost nothing this game. so it's just a gut read. if he's town, i don't give a shit at this point, he hasn't projected it.

same for xel, but I am a little less sure, it seemed like xel actually had thoughts he hadn't shared today, had memories and feelings about certain people that seemed to spontaneously come up (except for the whole quoting my first post this game as a wow moment, that was kinda bad, but whatever)

My concern with Xel is how he came in earlier and checked in, but I can't get any response from him when I called him out on being scum.


I think it's safe to say id dlgn is a wolf storn is not. And again it would be between Xel, who's MIA-ness just sucks, but this particular game I've seen a lot less town oriented posts in general. Or roundbox who had defended dlgn hard in the beginning and took quite some time to come around on him.

I've already said I don't think round is a wolf, so it's between dlgn and Xel. Town gains very little info from a xel lynch no matter what he flips as. Dlgn, even if he is town, would be much more informative to the big picture.
The only thing that concerns me about a dlgn mislynch is xel as a player conributing to town is worth very little, whereas dlgn as town and contributing to town cause is worth a lot more.

[rzr]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

I'm actually gonna move my vote to xel before I go to bed in case dlgn is town and wolves rush over night. Xel is a good vote, but not who I ultimately think should go today.

[dLGN]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

when I flip town please do not lynch rzr. i'll take the blame for the loss on that one. my mind is made up.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

dLGN:

-When the game started, he posted a strategy off of the bat. Setup is a big deal to me so seeing this was a nice thing. After trying for hours in chat to come up with an idea, I conceded that dLGN's plan had the best chances of working. We both agreed that town had to have some sort of plan. V essentially kicked this door down and said he was hiding in the Kidz Zone and that any plan to control hiding spots was inherently bad.

-dLGN is a new player to this community, so I gave him a pass on d1. I have a post on this earlier, so take a look at that (it's where I respond to AA's points)

For these two points above, I shelved dLGN on my town-sided list in that first phase of the game. Other lynching concerns came up, so I focused on them instead.

-Our logs look like shit. If we could recover chat from the beginning of the game, it was me bullshitting around that I thought it would be hilarious to have an entire conversation in emojis. dLGN took me up on this. There is one line in there where I'm trying to ask him if tokzic was the hobo that claimed to him (the biohazard part). If there was something I wanted to talk to him about, I just did it in the main channel. Our discussion about town strategy was all in the slack.

Time to look at his posts/vote patterns:

-His entrance into the thread was purely arrogance. It has definitely died down since then, but dLGN was openly hostile to dissenting opinions. This is an unnecessary risk to take as any alignment as it puts you in the spotlight from the get-go. Being bullheaded is definitely not diplomatic. I don't want to put an alignment on this strategy unless it falls into
ARGUMENT =/= dLGN town:
shit
It depends on the argument, but this logic is inherently flawed.

thinking about it pregame I decided it was a strong play to make as vanilla villager, a lol questionable / potentially strong play to make as a homeless guy, and suicidal to make as scum.

This post tells us this entire plan was premeditated. It's going to gather attention from players regardless of alignment. From any alignment, you could argue that he did this for the interest of town. The only thing here that would cause an issue if he were scum/hobo is that the plan called for his death to be successful. This last line is the only thing here that makes this plan seem like it was coming from him as town. My only question is: what would he post in the event he was scum? The same thing?

Looking at his interactions with dead players, Charu and Gradiant (town) were bashing heads with him, as well as Tokzic who made a post publicly that his cockiness made him scummier. Potential distancing (coaching???), but something tells me this might be confirmation bias from me.

this paragraph in particular makes it feel like you could be a wolf taking advantage of knowing the village prs identities and night strategy

the irony here. This feels like it's on the edge of voting territory for Tokzic since it would conflict with his plan. I don't think this is a W/W interaction since their strategies conflict and Tokzic wanted control. Town points here.

Tokzic and him go back and forth and really drive this point home. From a W/W perspective I'd eventually see one of them agree with each other since gaining control of the alliance is a good thing for the wolf team, regardless of which member.

there will never be a dLGN wagon this game, don't worry XD

i'll bury the shit out of rzr when i'm ready to

I take it you're not ready then since he is now further back in your lynching order? I want to know which point made you promote his town status.

Especially considering this:

dlgn [7:11 PM] 
i think you're mafia =/

​[7:12] 
i'm going to go eat dinner now but i'll explain in thread when i'm back

​[7:12] 
nothing personal

​[7:12] 
and it is early

​[7:12] 
but idk if I can be convinced otherwise

Another possibility is having three plans written up beforehand, and now he is executing one of those now

THE MINDMELDS

oh don't you worry, ima bring THE BIG FREEZE on saturday >: )

dLGN mention in an earlier post that he wasn't really able to pocket any of us since he didn't know our playstyles/mindsets. If this doesn't seem pockety to you, I don't know what is. I could also see this as a strategic pocket on a new player to put them in a position to never vote for them. Scum points

dLGN continuing to adapt and change strategy makes him look good against Tokzic again.

i think rzr is town. annoying, but town.

I think charu is town.

storn idk

A complete reversal here on rzr, going from WOLF to TOWN. His read on rzr keeps wavering, which seems like he might be a wolf trying to keep options/suspicions open so he can set up a lynch later and look convincing.

think his scum reads are town pretty much

This is in response to why he voted Xiz (fyi, this is before the whole homeless guy debacle). This reason sucks ass, and Xel pointed this out. Disagreeing with reads != scum.

my boy botchi ;_;

read: "my pocket botchi ;_;"

i'm not crazy about gradiant and don't feel so good about the fact that he's the one voting with me on xiz but wtf part of what he said was a slip?!?

gradiant

because lol.

the fuck is this? There's no way these posts line up. You're saying that the "slip" pointed out doesn't make sense, and then you vote on gradiant shortly after "because lol." This is horribly suspect, like, what the fuck.

hey dumbass, the people following this thread are currently voting the outed wolf

Once again, with the above point.

dlgn

Quote this post to see the log, but something tells me that this interaction right here might make these two of different alignments.

xiz [4:08 PM] 
read gradiants posts again

​[4:08] 
do it now.

dlgn [4:08 PM] 
yeah i'm going

xiz [4:08 PM] 
*in thread

dlgn [4:09 PM] 
ohhhhhh

​[4:09] 
LMAO

​[4:09] 
LMFAO

​[4:09] 
HE SAID THAT WITH A VOTE PARKED ON YOU

​[4:09] 
HAHAHAHHAHAHA

​[4:09] 
GG

​[4:09] 
wtf is wrong with me LOL

​[4:10] 
i even said that in my question about what the slip is

​[4:10] 
hahahahahaha

xiz [4:10 PM] 
I hope you know this makes you town-lean to scum-lean

dlgn [4:10 PM] 
that's fine

From Xiz log. It looks like this answers my question from earlier as to why the switch happened. Makes more sense now.

xiz - why did you feel the need to soft to tokzic at first and not just claim outright to him? what purpose did softing serve? and then why did you feel the need to hardclaim when you did?

Just quoting this for reference to say that dLGN started the phase with Xiz in his crosshairs.

disagree. if you are planning on fakeclaiming I think you are never the movie stalker. potentially getting yourself lynched d1 or d2 for fakeclaiming is not worth a fking bathroom slot. xiz claimed under pressure, claiming there is about survival, that IS something to gain, as a wolf. it's really pretty simple.

mindmeld here

who are the wolves on his wagon, fypov? who is going along with the easy lynch?

like it's easy to say what you're saying right now because it's a pretty universal opinion but the important part of your thought is WHO, otherwise it's just an interesting narrative to address after the flip

ruffle some feathers like backpack said, call someone a wolf, do anything so I can get a better read on you, please

I like this line of questioning. He has plenty of less-assholey posts and questions during this phase, fyi.

if you don't realize I am laughing at your read on me

sorta :\

no regrets, don't claim wolf and laugh about pushing the gradiant lynch when you learn that the "slip" you called out wasn't.

i hate this game.

Dabackpack responded to this post saying he didn't like this response, but it makes sense from his point of view. dLGN stated that hobos were pretty weak for a PR so I get him here when he isn't terribly upset.

pastebin.com/CJ9DHnsp

decide for yourself if this convo is EVER w/w LOL

I didn't read this post until making this current post, and hey, looks like I already pointed this out.


There are some scummy things toward the beginning, but the tokzic interactions and optimal wolf strategy just don't add up, especially given tokzic's votes and hard evidence against him. Tokzic was the first to post the log between them (yes it was awkward for dlgn to bring it up himself) so I'm inclined to believe tokzic was setting up a relatively easy mislynch. fuck, dlgn is probably town here

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

also I'm pretty sure I know exactly how dabackpack will react to this so I will respond here:

no

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

also, xel

still not buying it, friend

[dLGN]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

you put too much effort into that, lmao. at this point I don't think it took that much to pocket me, but you have been defending me from the start for some reason and I was probably already pocketed.

i'm going to take a little time to think about it and respond because you deserve that.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

you put too much effort into that, lmao. at this point I don't think it took that much to pocket me, but you have been defending me from the start for some reason and I was probably already pocketed.

i'm going to take a little time to think about it and respond because you deserve that.

really dude? you seriously think this is an elaborate pocket because it ends up townreading you?

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

I make towerposts like this every game when I'm actually trying
as you could tell my start of this game was garbage

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

Xel, when you get back, can you post all of your logs with everybody you've talked to?

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

you put too much effort into that, lmao. at this point I don't think it took that much to pocket me, but you have been defending me from the start for some reason and I was probably already pocketed.

i'm going to take a little time to think about it and respond because you deserve that.

this is either utter paranoia from a town or potential distancing

[dLGN]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

jfc i'm town, you're right, i've had you as town for a while and yeah, it's probably not a pocket because like I said, you didn't have to try that hard to stay as town for me, and I don't think you're just trying to look good for my flip.

i've been thrown for a bit of a loop by the tokzic suicide and the timing of some of your more substantial posts but you're probably just town and it's a breath of fresh air.

still need to take my time to evaluate who truly thinks I am a wolf and who is doing this out of convenience. things like rzr talking earlier about not being one to get on wagons but getting on this, while simultaneously bringing that fact up again is interesting. i was 2 votes away from insta lynch. ugh.

[storn42]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

dlgn