jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

if i die, it becomes mislynch and lose, which is the scenario that i outlined a while back, and that charles has talked about.

it's not a good place to be with the cop known, and the roleblocker alive.

let's put it a nother way

[ohsosilly]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

Alright clearly I don't understand something so I'm going back to read those posts again lol

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

say r is the cop, and you lynch me. I would turn up red as with his claim, even though his reasoning and posts were nearly incomprehensible as he made his cop claim. you then lynch lefty because it's obviously a false counterclaim, and you win.

and say r isn't the cop and you lynch me. there's lefty and r left as confirmed town, and one of those will be dead if medic doesn't get to them.

do you really want to leave the final fucking decisions up to lefty and r

i'm being dead serious. I know which scenario is going to happen if i'm lynched obviously, and the risk is horrid. even one inactive person in a 5 person day phase is death to town. the only way for town to kill a wolf would be if all three townspeople decided to vote on a wolf, which is hard as balls given the amount of information you would have, especially given either lefty or rngrx would be left.

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

on the other hand, if lefty is the cop, and r is lying, then you have lefty and r as cleared, and me as well. I'm throwing myself in there because I doubt any wolves would take the gamble. As a green, i knew a counterclaim had to come, which is why i immediately voted RNG, because there was no other explanation, until lefty came and said r was green. then welp, rng just made a bad village play.

ANYWAYS

we kill charles, force, or ohsosilly, with a 2/3 chance of hitting a wolf assuming lefty is right.

1/3 of that chance is hitting the roleblocker wolf.

if we hit the roleblocker wolf, then lefty would get one more seering opportunity, where we find the last wolf and win.

[Cavernio]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

No yoshl, this isn't the same scenario at all as what it was earlier.

Yoshl can be a wolf with R being the actual cop or with R being a dufus greeny. In other terms, yoshl and lefty can be the wolves, or yoshl and someone else can still be the wolf.
R doesn't read wolf at all anymore, he's either green or blue.

If R were a wolf, then lefty wouldn't have come back and said he was green. Unless both of them were wolves. But if both lefty and R were wolves both claiming to be cops, then there'd still be a real cop out there, and there isn't.

What's changed is that it doesn't matter who the cop is for yoshl to not be off the chopping block. R could be shooting his mouth off or being 100% truthful and you're still a wolf candidate. You even put yourself on the list of possibilities still, because you know I'm right.

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

fuck rngrx, but i'm not going to give up.

i have to go eat dinner.

this is reminding me of a matrix game

http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=135595&page=18

i'm seriously going to fight, because i have everything to lose.

fuck if wolves are going to sweep

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

also cav you need to get past your fucking confirmation bias, because it's going to cost us.

[Cavernio]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

say r is the cop, and you lynch me. I would turn up red as with his claim, even though his reasoning and posts were nearly incomprehensible as he made his cop claim. you then lynch lefty because it's obviously a false counterclaim, and you win.

The more you keep pushing aside that you're not still a possible wolf regardless of whether R is a cop or isn't a cop, the more you look covered in fur.

[Cavernio]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

Seriously R fucking come back in the thread

[Charles Claythorne]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

Yeah, lynching one of T-Force, ohsosilly, and me is the best option right now, given the circumstances. I trust YoshL; I don't think he would have reacted how he did by the seering if he were a Wolf.

Voting on T-Force now anyway. Have read through about half the topic so far and things I've noted:

ohsosilly's analysis list - When I read through the thread the first time a few hours after joining, none of T-Force's posts struck me as Human. I'm figuring this may be an attempt to give a Human lean to a Wolf Partner.

And in T-Force's list, he also felt that ohsosilly seemed Human, despite ohsosilly hardly having posted beyond his list.

Also, posts like this strengthen my suspicions on their seeming relation.

I feel like T-Force's reasons for suspecting are rather artificial too. How is my list "empty?" What could I be "hiding?" I joined the game just today, so it's not as if I can make a detailed analysis of each Player from the get-go.

I have a headache now though, so I'm going to stop rereading there for now. I'll try to continue later if I can, but I'm rather confident on T-Force/ohsosilly.

[Charles Claythorne]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

Cavernio, I'm fairly confident about T-Force and ohososilly being Partners.

Your suspicion of YoshL being a Wolf is possible, but unlikely, I feel. Imagine if you were a Wolf in his position; an ostensible Cop has just seered you Red. Are you going to adamantly declare that there will be a counterclaim with this type of setup, despite (to your knowledge) believing there won't be one, since the 'real' Cop has already claimed? It just seems incredibly unlikely for him to go down so hard for such damning evidence.

The theory about him and LeftyRighty is also certainly possible. However, although YoshL is experience, I don't give in credence for him to both think up the plan alongside LeftyRighty as a precaution during the Night Phase and actually risk going through with it as a Wolf. It doesn't fit him, in my opinion. In fact, I would expect very few experienced Players to have gone through the trouble of thinking it up, frankly.

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

on the other hand, if lefty is the cop, and r is lying, then you have lefty and r as cleared, and me as well. I'm throwing myself in there because I doubt any wolves would take the gamble. As a green, i knew a counterclaim had to come, which is why i immediately voted RNG, because there was no other explanation, until lefty came and said r was green. then welp, rng just made a bad village play.

The more you keep pushing aside that you're not still a possible wolf regardless of whether R is a cop or isn't a cop, the more you look covered in fur.

confirmation bias. stop it. it's not helping you at all. I'm not pushing it aside, especially without good reason.

[Cavernio]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

lefty opinion?

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

no

[YoshL]

Re: jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

we need a right(y) opinion