TWG IX, Manhunt - Postgame Analysis

Well, good job. Despite how poorly I played, I didn't expect the humans to do nearly as well as they did.

So, a summary of the game from my perspective:

I stick by my killings. As for Night One, the choice wasn't hard. chardish is a smart guy whom I didn't want around. No surprise for a round one killing there. EB was a decent kill, like I said, but he was mainly there to throw people off. Y'all didn't take the "Well, Mirage must be someone who played last game and saw how he was the MVP" bait (which would have been extremely awesome), but I wasn't too worried, as I didn't count on that doing much. The kill still led you nowhere, and that's what I wanted: humans running around in circles. Of course, that's not hard for Night One kills.

Night Two was the latest I was willing to let blah live. I don't know how he does it, but if I feared one person singling me out, it was him. So, I had to get rid of him. Originally, I was going to kill Q as well. Not because I feared him but because I gave up on him attracting suspicion. I changed because I didn't realize at the time that he had gotten a phantom, so I figured I'd use that to my advantage in the future. Tps was chosen because trying to figure that kill out was a dead end, too.

I also had to plan out the final round. To those who haven't realized it yet: THIS GAME IS DESIGNED TO END ON DAY FOUR. I went into this game like everyone else did: thinking that this game was incredibly slated towards Mirage. Then I got to thinking that on the final day there would be only two other people who would have survived the entire game. You have to be a damn good wolf to win this game, as you have to act extremely human all game, instead of acting naturally like the other two. Some people have to be left so as to not make it obvious who the wolf is, but you have to be able to sway one of those people to your side, too. It's damn tricky. I was hoping to leave Kilga or Kefit and someone with a phantom vote alive.

That brings me to another point: Phantom votes are INSANELY powerful in this game for Mirage. If a human survives to Day Four with two phantoms, he's automatically insta-lynched (provided the wolf votes for that human, of course) and the game's over, wolf wins. Meaning, humans could safely take one phantom without affecting the end of the game (since two real votes or one real and two phantoms are needed to off someone). Meaning, the humans should fear people with phantoms and most certainly lynch someone who has two, even if they are human. Also, someone in this game was assured to be a human because they got a phantom. Makes sense, since Mirage wouldn't want to be lynched any easier. But since humans can take a free phantom, so can Mirage.

Now, for my defenses... I came to the conclusion recently that I get much more credit in TWGs than I deserve. I can barely remember the last time I was truly useful to the humans. Then I realized something else, though. The last time I was useful was the last time I was really playing the game as a human (TWG IV). I can do well in these games when I pay much attention to it and devote myself. Manhunt especially requires undivided attention. Where I'm going with this is that my attention was very much divided. First off, I didn't know I was going to play this game until an hour before signups, so I hadn't considered ANY sort of strategy or thought about the game's system. So, I went in acting as if this were just another TWG where I could take a day off if I wanted. The game started on the weekend, a time when I'm often not around the computer a lot. On top of this, stretchy was with me. Now, I had told myself beforehand that she wouldn't distract me enough to make a difference, but boy was I wrong, only in the fact that I needed to put in more time, not that she took too much from me. I could have focused more, but didn't, for reasons stated above. It was only after Day One that I started to realize the true position I was in. I knew after the chat room that I didn't come off as overly human, but I dismissed it because I'd be able to do something about that later. Wrong. I realized Day Two that I needed to suck it up and start acting human.

Which is interesting, because starting with my vote for Hans, I was doing everything I would have done as a human. My logic, my vote, my defense, my second vote, they were all things I would have done as a human. I honestly think that my apathy on Day One was what screwed me. On top of that, roop hit it on the head when he pointed out that my defense wasn't heavy enough. Why? Because I didn't try hard enough. I remember the ONLY other time I was targeted as a human. I flipped out and went into mega-defense mode. That's what I should have done here, but I didn't realize it until after roopert's post, since I am inexperienced in the ways of defense. Therein lay my downfall.

But yeah, this game should not end on Day Two unless Mirage really screws up (case in point). Day Three will mean the humans are REALLY good, and a Day Four victory will show that they were good enough to win, simply enough. ANY Mirage victory will show extreme skill on his part.

So, I apologize to Tass for not making this nearly as interesting as it should be, but let this be a lesson to all: This game requires extreme amounts of dedication for both sides. I went into this game thinking it would be pretty boring, but now I realize how awesome it is. When Tass said it required sheer skill, he wasn't lying.

EDIT: After reading Tass's postgame (I had typed this up beforehand), I think that offing the least likely choices would be a good strategy, but probably only for this Manhunt. Like we agreed in the game, trying to analyze Tass's choice will lead to NO sound logic. Of course, everyone will still keep that in the back of their mind, but I think choosing a newb as the wolf would have been extremely interesting (How long do you think Tps could have lasted? So much logic would have to change). So, I still maintain that analyzing Tass will lead nowhere, especially for future Manhunts.

EDIT2: Latest I would let blah LIVE, not die.

GG all,

--Guido (Mirage)

Oh yea... guess it should be fairly clear. Alain gets my MVP.

I made the worst slew of n00bish mistakes ever in this game. I definately know how to do better in TWG 10, I must say though, that this is wasn't the best environment for me to learn TWG in because I was human, and thought I should act the part extremely based on the set-up of the game.

I made horrible mistakes, though even though my death was seen as retarded, I thought it was the smartest move I made all game. You can disagree, but in my eyes after logical conclusions lynching myself was genius. I realized that if I had survived (which I probably wouldn't have anyways) that everything I had said so far in the game would make mirage's job easier because I seemed so wolfish.

I analyzed what acts I could have taken from here to help the humans, and concluded that they were precisely that: acts. Nothing would have redeemed me from my stupidity in over-posting and acting blatantly human early on.

I also came to the conclusion that kiling myself might reveal the wolf based on how mirage reacted to my death. I feel my logic was pretty good for a newb, and pretty good at the time, albeit not quite up to TWG par, but I think based on the mistakes I made it was the smartest thing I could do to help the humans overall.

I think my worst skill was how blunt and honest I was all the time, and how my personality in IMing (and this is out of personal habit) bends or reshapes a bit to make the person I'm talking to like me or feel comfortable.

Overall, I think I did good for a newb, and I SHOULD'VE played jTWG2 instead for my first game, but I think now I am ready for TWG 10.

EDIT: That is of course, if I was allowed in TWG 10.

Tass, what the hell was up with your Kafkaesque story of improbably morosity? JOB INTERVIEW GONE HORRIBLY WRONG. WE'VE DECIDED TO KILL OFF THIRTEEN OF YOU, LEAVING ONE SURVIVOR.

I can really imagine this "commander" as Mr. Black from The Simpsons, the crooked counselor of Kamp Krusty.

"Gentlemen. To evil!"

I can see this game being extremely interesting on day three or four, or the whole time if one is the wolf.

Unfortunately, with nothing much for the humans to go on on the first day or two, this game is kind of a drag. We are urged to be active, but we honestly don't have much to say. Unlike other wolf games, there is no real evidence to work with beyond the voice and tone of each individual player's posts. Sure, that can be enough to pick out the wolf, as it was in this game, but the humans got lucky this game - trying to base their lynchings off of nothing but gut instincts could just as easily lead the humans nowhere.

I was really excited for days three and four though. Alain and I were working on some strategies that we were going to put into play, and I was even working on one of my own while chatting with him. Unfortunately, the chance to use any of our plans never came about. I suppose I should be happy since I finally won a TWG, but it would have been so much nicer had I gotten a chance to pull off some of the stuff I was working on.

I generally don't make a big scene in the postgame, I do enough of that in the actual game.

First, I know I have reason to be bias towards it, but I'd like to say that I feel Tass had a great story. It wins first in a category all on it's own. Aside from being funny, and informative about what happened and the state of the game (lynchings, phantoms) it was the best integration ever of the actual discussion going on in the game. Everything from Charlotte's self lynching to the HansSky's claims to his "gut feeling" :P A Great story and a great hosting by the guy who's shoes I wasn't so ashamed to be trying to fill.

Guido, you made a good wolf, and you've already covered your mistakes. Personally I don't think you messed up much at all. Assume that I had 100 percent of suspicion to give out, you had about 60%, and everyone else had a smaller proportion. I wasn't completely suspicious of you perse, and I was in awe of how quickly my bandwagon filled up. I was almost ready to dump them off with some information on Kilga, but then Q popped in and made it official.

Charlotte, don't feel bad about what happend. I actually should have known better than to start something on you. As much as you have intelligence, it was only your first TWG and you didn't have the knowlege of strategy that other TWGers have, and I was thinking reverse psychology when it really wasn't at that level with you yet. If you don't get into TWG10 I look forward to seeing you in 11 perhaps.

Blah played a valiant game, ever suspicious of me but ever by my side :P It was our combined thought that got the humans in such a well thought out position and as always I credit much of the human success to his mind. Kefit also deserves credit. As I mentioned in the game, he is not always taken as a critical player in the game but always has well thought out ideas and posts and they should be regarded as such.

That is all. Great game everyone.

My signature will change, but this one should live on for Manhunt.

Tass, don't put any blame on me.

Regardless of whether Hans was on at the time on the SITE, he was still on AIM. Even if he was away, he could've gotten his message. I noticed other people "away" at the time as well.

ALSO - Chardish, I'm pinning the blame on you for this. Why did you do something only a moderator can do? That's, you know, AGAINST THE RULES. You're not allowed to use your mod powers in any way to gain an advantage.

So, don't look at me.

~Squeek

PS - I shouldn't have had to PM you explaining that using asterisks to set off action is useless in a story.

PPS - I know where you were going with the codenames, but it honestly doesn't work as well as you would think. The entire time someone is referring to a codename, you wonder who it is and have to go back and check several times. You might even match the names wrong and end up screwing an innocent person over. This is the reason I chose not to have the codenames mean anything in my game.

I did this after I was dead. Which, since I died on night 1, meant I didn't really care who won or lost.

Nice job pegging Guido, alain.

I dare say this was quite interesting in the short amount of time it lasted (even with such little information to go off of), and I sure wouldn't mind playing it again.

I'm mad that Guido didn't tell me he was the wolf. :'(

I found out 10 minutes after Alains post from an undisclosed informant, and then I was like "Damn"

So yea, good job Alain.

Guido didn't tell ME he was the wolf, either. He wanted me to figure it out on my own, and when he told me he was human, I was convinced (not that I had seen much from him, but why would he need to lie to me -- a nonplayer?) until I sat down at his computer to check my email. Guido left the room, leaving AIM running, and Tass IMed him asking if he knew who he wanted to kill for night 2. Good thing I wasn't playing.

Just as HansSky has "gut feelings" (And to these I say, "Pah!"), I have dumb luck, pure and simple.

EDIT: verb tenses are not my friends.

squeek, don't get mad.. I asked chardish to do it for me, because he was already dead and Hans willingly told me, but I didn't know how fair / accurate it was, which is why I asked Chardish. I had the whole thing solved when Q got a phanom, but alas I was dead :/

Yeah. Decent game I suppose. I feel we won this game by luck and gut instincts. I don't know what we would have done if Guido wasn't the wolf. It would have probably gone to day 4. In the beginning I said that I could have easily won if I were the wolf, but now I'm not so sure. I could probably make it to day 4, but that is when it gets really tricky.

to Squeek: plain and simple, I told you not to do it, yet you still did. Plus, its not fair to Afro when I kicked him out for the exact same reason.

to Chardish: I felt that the ending to the story was the only realistic ending. A company willing to kill random people for random enjoyment or the off chance of a new recruit would be real pissed at losing their star killer and getting instead eight random d00ds. If I were in charge of such an evil organization, it is what I would do. gg Alain, again.

to Everyone: If enough people wish to have a 2nd Manhunt, post letting me know, and somewhere around TWG XV or so, I'll run another. Otherwise, expect something new from me the next time I host, around TWG XV or XVI I would imagine.