TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

**bugkid666** · 02-22-2025, 05:09 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by Hateandhatred

I don't know if I necessarily agree with this. There's no way to know if one of the two wagons is even a wolf, and it forces whoever has this power to follow the majority whenever there's pressure on them, and since they're not scum themselves, it assumes that the other wagon is a wolf, and frankly, I think it overly narrows their personal scope, since they have information no one else has (they know they are actually a PR and therefore look at the game from a different perspective)

i dont really agree with this sentiment because i'm not sure anyone alluded to the fact that the reverse wagon had to be a wolf one. i think it accomplishes "solving" a wagon in case the other fails which can be helpful if the majority of town does in fact want that person solved. the alternative is the vengeful spirit killing someone that nobody else cared about solving. whether or not its necessary to consolidate to two wagons is up for debate but i can at least see the logic behind why someone might think that to be the best option.

Originally posted by Hateandhatred

I also feel like this puts a lot of strange scrutiny over the person being threathened with a lynch like "wait, they're not budging, maybe they are the PR" making us more likely to derail from a better target. I do see value in it, but frankly they should just play their own game, and to avoid having two potential mislynch, it's probably better for them to claim anyway. In fact, I think the true value of blues here is in staying hidden and alive so that we can eventually have them claim in order to mathematically solve the game.

I dunno if my logic works out, but I think we shouldn't "obviously" agree that this is how it should be. Thoughts?

youre missing the entire purpose of vengeful spirit which is that they were sent "vanilla town" and do not know that they are a vengeful spirit until after they are dead. unless you switched to talking about a different PR and i didnt notice?

see guys i can write vanilla town correctly i promise

**bugkid666** · 02-22-2025, 05:10 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by leetic

Who's your partner?

More seriously, claiming VT this early seems a bit tryhard? Like it reads like an attempt to gain town points rather than a thought-out move to help town's chances. Basically, LAMIST (though I hate the term)

yeah you're right but i complain about being vanilla town every game so its pretty par for the course unfortunately

**FreezinIce** · 02-22-2025, 05:11 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Votecount:

Hateandhatred (2): bugkid, mello_collie
bugkid (1): Hakulyte
Arapocalypse (1): MixMasterLar

Not voting: A lot of people

=======

EOD in about 5 hours

(Thanks to leetic for the correction)

**leetic** · 02-22-2025, 05:12 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by bugkid666

i dont really agree with this sentiment because i'm not sure anyone alluded to the fact that the reverse wagon had to be a wolf one. i think it accomplishes "solving" a wagon in case the other fails which can be helpful if the majority of town does in fact want that person solved. the alternative is the vengeful spirit killing someone that nobody else cared about solving. whether or not its necessary to consolidate to two wagons is up for debate but i can at least see the logic behind why someone might think that to be the best option.

youre missing the entire purpose of vengeful spirit which is that they were sent "vanilla town" and do not know that they are a vengeful spirit until after they are dead. unless you switched to talking about a different PR and i didnt notice?

see guys i can write vanilla town correctly i promise

I suppose it is true that t/t wagons would probably lead to a bad scenario, even if it's a bit convoluted as it'd need to be exactly the Vengeful that gets lynched. But even then, the CW to a flipped town is basically a guaranteed vig target anyway. Thus, the only way to truly avoid it is simply to not suck at wolfhunting.

**leetic** · 02-22-2025, 05:13 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by FreezinIce

Votecount:

Hateandhatred (2): bugkid, mello_collie
Bugkid (1): Hakulyte

Not voting: A lot of people

=======

EOD in about 5 hours

I believe MML is also voting for Ara (post 69 hehe), unless he retracted it and I missed it?

**Hakulyte** · 02-22-2025, 05:13 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by bugkid666

yeah you're right but i complain about being vanilla town every game so its pretty par for the course unfortunately

That's true, it's just that there's no reason for you to not post the exact same thing as wolf.

**bugkid666** · 02-22-2025, 05:14 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

fwiw i'll be leaving my vote on hateandhatred for now at least. a lot of things in the wall post rubbed me the wrong way and i'm trying to decide if it's because it seems performative or if i just disagree with him

**bugkid666** · 02-22-2025, 05:15 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by Hakulyte

That's true, it's just that there's no reason for you to not post the exact same thing as wolf.

thats true!

**MixMasterLar** · 02-22-2025, 05:15 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by FreezinIce

Votecount:

Hateandhatred (2): bugkid, mello_collie
Bugkid (1): Hakulyte

Not voting: A lot of people

=======

EOD in about 5 hours

Was my vote for Ara missed or ineligible for some reason?

Ara if that makes it easier

**Hateandhatred** · 02-22-2025, 05:18 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by leetic

Can you elaborate more on the Haku read? I don't think any of their posts are really that difficult to come up with from a wolf perspective. That being said, I understand with my limited experience with them that they tend to come off as wolfy by default.

Haku is Haku, different rules apply

Originally posted by leetic

A N3 shot would require consistently low rolls. I won't do the exact calculation but I believe it would be about a 1/8 chance of succeeding (again assuming no Soul Stealer interference). Although a Devil shot may be the only way of winning for town if it goes to F3 at night, though wolves would still be favored to win the roll and I'm not sure if that is a likely position in the first place.

I "did" the math and I got 31.25% of a N3 shot going off without any soul stealer shenanigans. So more 1/3 than 1/8.

There are 4^3 different combos possible. That means 64 outcomes.
Of these outcomes, there are 20 different outcomes that guarantee a total of 6 or lower.

Sum = 3: (1,1,1): 1 way
Sum = 4: (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1): 3 ways
Sum = 5: (1,1,3), (1,3,1), (3,1,1), (1,2,2), (2,1,2), (2,2,1): 6 ways
Sum = 6: (1,1,4), (1,4,1), (4,1,1), (1,2,3), (1,3,2), (2,1,3), (2,3,1), (3,1,2), (3,2,1), (2,2,2): 10 ways

so that's 20/64, or 5/16, which is 31.25%

I put did between quotation marks because I actually just asked ChatGPT get rekt

Originally posted by leetic

Basically, the PoE is the number of safe mislynches/vig shots plus the number of wolves. If we have both the wolves in the PoE and shoot exclusively within it, then we win the game. The high amount of town kill power allows for a generous PoE for a game (5 in most scenarios, though four if we want to be super safe)

Well I guess this post (and the one it was responding to) answers my question. Will reread with this in mind, though I don't think it changes anything.

Originally posted by roundbox

thread I am coming down with a fever and it's really lame

Get well soon =)

I'm gonna take a moment to let y'all know that I'm doing great, as to put more positive real life stuff out there. Those of you who know me know that it's been rough for a long time, but I feel great now!

Originally posted by roundbox

aside from shitposting, there isn't much else to discuss since we have no flips, so I mean, it makes sense

People making basically personality reads in d0, I find to be very difficult to engage with

Originally posted by leetic

Who's your partner?

More seriously, claiming VT this early seems a bit tryhard? Like it reads like an attempt to gain town points rather than a thought-out move to help town's chances. Basically, LAMIST (though I hate the term)

Out of curiosity, how viable is claiming VT? for real?

Also where the fuck is Weiss

**bugkid666** · 02-22-2025, 05:18 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by Hakulyte

That's true, it's just that there's no reason for you to not post the exact same thing as wolf.

that being said i didnt say it to specifically gain town cred i mostly said it to complain, its your choice if you believe that or not but it is the truth. (and yes i know i could also say this exact same thing as wolf)

i'm not going to earnestly defend the slip because there's no real defense for it, it was just a stupid slip. if it bothers you and you vote for me, thats honestly understandable. all i can do is prove to you that i am town through what i say and how i vote

**Hakulyte** · 02-22-2025, 05:19 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

@bugkid666

For clarity, I'm voting you because you went "lmfao vanilla wolf" / "because stupid" instead of trying to explain your headspace. If I cannot explain more in details why that happened, it becomes difficult for me to look past it.

**MixMasterLar** · 02-22-2025, 05:20 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Last post for awhile but I am really tempted to just vote Weiss and call it a phase

I think I am ok if we vote Bug.

I will leave my vote on Ara for the moment unless they start to make waves. I just couldn't read it as a good faith town on the reread and I feel it's worth digging into

**bugkid666** · 02-22-2025, 05:21 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by Hateandhatred

Out of curiosity, how viable is claiming VT? for real?

i appreciate this comment tbh

it's my assumption that every player is by default claiming vt at all times, which is why i did not find it that odd to say. (if i had, yknow, spelled town "town" and not "wolf")

**leetic** · 02-22-2025, 05:23 PM

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Originally posted by Hateandhatred

Haku is Haku, different rules apply

I "did" the math and I got 31.25% of a N3 shot going off without any soul stealer shenanigans. So more 1/3 than 1/8.

There are 4^3 different combos possible. That means 64 outcomes.
Of these outcomes, there are 20 different outcomes that guarantee a total of 6 or lower.

Sum = 3: (1,1,1): 1 way
Sum = 4: (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1): 3 ways
Sum = 5: (1,1,3), (1,3,1), (3,1,1), (1,2,2), (2,1,2), (2,2,1): 6 ways
Sum = 6: (1,1,4), (1,4,1), (4,1,1), (1,2,3), (1,3,2), (2,1,3), (2,3,1), (3,1,2), (3,2,1), (2,2,2): 10 ways

so that's 20/64, or 5/16, which is 31.25%

I put did between quotation marks because I actually just asked ChatGPT get rekt

Well I guess this post (and the one it was responding to) answers my question. Will reread with this in mind, though I don't think it changes anything.

Get well soon =)

I'm gonna take a moment to let y'all know that I'm doing great, as to put more positive real life stuff out there. Those of you who know me know that it's been rough for a long time, but I feel great now!

People making basically personality reads in d0, I find to be very difficult to engage with

Out of curiosity, how viable is claiming VT? for real?

Also where the fuck is Weiss

You do know you can respond to posts individually without making a wallpost. There's no reason for wolves to claim anything other than VT here as counterclaiming the Freikugel is obviously moronic and counterclaiming Soul Stealer is at best an act of desperation

TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

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