jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

[benguino]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

I'm thinking the chances were much more likely, since we killed a wolf on the first day.

I'm still unsure what you are getting at over here, it almost seems like you are trying to appeal to some type of gambler's fallacy ("oh, we got the first wolf, I bet we can also just as easily get the second!"). Assuming that the person with the wizard orb decides to use it on a random person, there is actually a higher chance of hitting a human if a wolf is killed on the first day. Of course, one likely wouldn't randomly use the wizard orb but I fail to see how killing a wolf on the first day increases the likelihood of hitting a wolf with a wizard orb the following night. Could you please explain?

[choof]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

Sure.

Firstly, you have it wrong. The wizard orb stops an action from happening. Vigi orb kills a player.

Wolves have the early game advantage, so having killed a wolf on day one lynch, I expect the wolves would have been nervous. If I had had the wizard orb, I would have stopped the wolf kill to put even more pressure on the wolves, and to re-roll the orbs.

[choof]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

In fact, that gambler's fallacy is precisely why I said we need to be very careful with who we decide to lynch lol.

[choof]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

R's viewing the thread

if you could speak up and attempt to persuade us that you're just a quiet townie, that'd be great

[benguino]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

Sure.

Firstly, you have it wrong. The wizard orb stops an action from happening. Vigi orb kills a player.

Wolves have the early game advantage, so having killed a wolf on day one lynch, I expect the wolves would have been nervous. If I had had the wizard orb, I would have stopped the wolf kill to put even more pressure on the wolves, and to re-roll the orbs.

Perhaps I'm not understanding the wizard orb correctly. I know that the wizard orb can stop an action from happening but I thought that the way that it is used is by specifying whose action's you want to stop, not by specifying the actual action you want to stop. I'm not too sure though since it's not clear in the rules but I just assumed it was the way I described since all the other orbs work the same way (person A specifies that they want to use the orb specifically on person B). I'd like this to be clarified...

[benguino]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

Also, I think lurker was having the same interpretation of the wizard orb as me which is probably why there is all this confusion and argument. idk

[danceflashrevo]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

Wizard orb you have to identify who you're using it on. So it's highly unlikely that you would stop a wolf kill but it's still possible :P

[danceflashrevo]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

Unlikely that you would block a kill on random I should say.

[XelNya]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

Based RNG Gods I pray to yee,

Blessed be mine friend whom possesses the wizard orb, so that they may block these wolf heathens so that they are left to rot in the dust of the town's greatness.

[XelNya]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

For the record there are no RNG gods.

[danceflashrevo]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

Only rngesus.

[XelNya]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

What would be the Antichrist of RNGeezus? Actually having skill based run?

That said here's where I stand:

Suspects:

R - even should we mis-lynch this guy is the prime target. That UTR shit has me really weary because it's strikingly similar to mine, but better thought out. I'll be looking at this.

Lurker - Vigi claim has me curious. I wouldn't have claimed it if I were you. You made yourself look bad either on purpose, or as a mistake. I can't lump you as middle ground, but I can't say I have ruled you out from the town. It feels more like a mistake in judgement, but I've seen people use this as their shitty cover.

Blind - because he's finally pulling his ass off the mace ever so slightly, I'm sure it hurts. I just generally don't like you because your lack of skill at the game makes you harder to read. I have to sort through how much I think is just inexperience versus wolf play versus pure stupidity. (Guess where most of it goes.) I will probably never lump you as pure town admittedly.

Middle:

Soramimi -

Tox - Gone really quiet. Surely the hang over can't be that bad. I'm curious more so than a hard lean.

Danceflashrevo - Deviations in styles concern me. You seem too easy a target, but you also don't have a case to lean you either way. Is this what it's like playing against me normally? (Not you blind, you're different.)

Samurai - I'm really inactive, just so inactive, I'm really inactive, not so attractive...


Towns:

Benguin - I wanted to chalk you into the middle ground, but your activity pickup makes it seem like you were UTR due to IRL. I'm fine with you for now.

Choofers - Seems like he plays similar to Soonfan. His play does line up to
Soonfan townie behavior from what I can tell. Tries to steer the conversation. Do like this.

My reasoning are rather weak as I've been up for like 17 hours or so. I'm kinda tired but I wanna see where this throws us.

[XelNya]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

You know on looking at this I probably should have put blind in middle.

[danceflashrevo]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

I'll get to a post when I get to a computer in about 30 minutes.

[Toxophilis]

Re: jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

that soramimi 'read' made me laugh but then i felt bad, also i havent been posting much since the last time i stated my opinion i was told to shut up =/