TWG XLV: Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game!

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Aya Shameimaru, Traditional Fantasy Reporter and Wind God Girl, was annoyed. The comings and goings of Gensokyo and its inhabitants were so boring lately, and there was nothing newsworthy whatsoever. In a place with such powerful beings, how could there be so little conflict? How could there be so little happening in general? It was like a blanket of lethargy was covering the whole area - even Suika's party gathering attempts were appearing with less and less frequency.

Aya sighed and frowned. There has to be something out there, she thought. Maybe one last sweep over the upper winds could yield something new.

And as luck would have it, as she was flying over the bamboo forest near that weird eternity mansion - Eientei, wasn't it? - she heard a shrill shreik that sounded a lot more urgent than the likes of that annoying ice fairy getting her head stuck in another giant toad's mouth.

Aya flew down to find the source of the shout, and it was not long before she found herself looking a the sobbing figure of Fujiwara no Mokou. Aya raised an eyebrow - this behavior was highly unusual for this girl. She alighted on a nearby branch and whipped out her notebook, noting right off that she looked...rounder than normal.

"What's going on here?"

Mokou didn't seem to notice her at first, and after several more questions with no response, Aya became annoyed again. She jumped down and landed on the ground right in front of Mokou and lifted her chin up so they were eye to eye.

"Are you all right? What happened?"

"Oh, i-it's you, the rumor monger bird. Well, i-if you must know, I...I..." Mokou went back to crying.

"Come on, spit it out."

"...I'm pregnant!"

"...WHAT? How? Why? What the-"

At this point Mokou was crying too much to answer. After several more attempts to extract any information she could, Aya realized her efforts were futile and took off into the sky, leaving Mokou with some awkward well-wishes on the way out.

"What the HELL is this? How on Earth could that have happened? That shopkeeper fellow doesn't seem like the type to do something like this, but there aren't any other-"

Aya's audible thought process was interrupted by another scream that came across the winds blowing from Scarlet Devil Mansion. She recognized this voice as belonging to Flandre Scarlet. Aya froze, debating whether or not such an endeavour was worth the little information Mokou's reaction seemed to indicate she'd get, when several more screams reached her ears in the direction of Hakugyokurou, voices she knew belonged to the Prismriver Girls. They were far less likely to kill her in a fit of emotion than Flandre was, so she took off in their direction, noticing the sobbing (and somewhat distended) figures of Lily White and Medicine Melancholy in fields on the way by.

Aya's mind boggled at the thought of Medicine getting knocked up, so much so to the point where she almost ran into Hakugyokurou's barrier without noticing. Lunasa, Merlin and Lyrica were in no different condition from Mokou.

After departing from her second failed interview attempt, Aya headed back toward the mountains, when a smile crossed her face. This could be the story of a lifetime! And with a lifespan as long as hers, that was saying something. But to make it really good, she needed to find the culprit. Getting an idea, she changed direction and flew toward the Hakurei Shrine, in the hopes that Suika would be there...

---

PMs are locked and loaded. I will start sending them after posting this. Sorry for the delay. Here's a player list in the meantime. (If Jurs or anyone else could repost the AIM list that'd be nice.)

1. sertman (Keine Kamishirasawa)
2. flawofhumanity (Patchouli Knowledge)
3. FoJaR (Sikieiki Yamaxanadu)
4. FictionJunction (Remilia Scarlet)
5. x3Mamimi (Reisen Udongein Inaba)
6. FishFishRevolution (Sakuya Izayoi)
7. jwcgator (Ran Yakumo)
8. DarkManticoreX2 (Alice Margatroid)
9. Kefit (Cirno)
10. roundbox (Kaguya Houraisan)
11. DiscoBobbyParanoia (Marisa Kirisame)
12. Larrikin (Komachi Onozuka)
13. rioting (Yuyuko Saigyouji)
14. talisman (Yukari Yakumo)
15. PsYcHoZeRoSk8eR (Reimu Hakurei)
16. StoicRoivaS (Youmu Konpaku)
17. thunderstrike687 (Yuka Kazami)
18. Stella! (Suika Ibuki)
19. JurseyRider734 (Hong Meiling)
20. Omeganitros (Eirin Yagokoro)

When I have sent all the PMs out, I will post saying so here and Night 1 will begin. Don't be ******s and ask each other about PMs, please.

Reminders:

- Night talking is encouraged.
- Talking to the dead is discouraged.
- Dead will not be told what is going on, nor will outsiders.
- Be on guard for illegal roles.

As stated in the other thread, I am bringing back the Lottery Guard system. It works as follows:

Each night, every living player sends me the name of someone they want to see guarded. After a 24 hour period, I will compile all these names and select one at random, weighing the odds as necessary based on how many votes a player gets. If you do not send in a vote after 24 hours, your vote will be "none", leaving the possibility open that no one will get guarded. Don't let your team down: you have a job to do, son, and you better do it.

Feel free to publicly discuss the lottery guard as much as you like, determining a voting strategy or not as you choose.

---

Current active player list:

1. sertman (Keine Kamishirasawa)
3. FoJaR (Sikieiki Yamaxanadu)
7. jwcgator (Ran Yakumo)
8. DarkManticoreX2 (Alice Margatroid)
9. Kefit (Cirno)
10. roundbox (Kaguya Houraisan)
12. Larrikin (Komachi Onozuka)
14. talisman (Yukari Yakumo)
19. JurseyRider734 (Hong Meiling)
20. Omeganitros (Eirin Yagokoro)

Current inactive player list:

2. flawofhumanity (Patchouli Knowledge) - Killed Night 1
4. FictionJunction (Remilia Scarlet) - Killed Night 3
5. x3Mamimi (Reisen Udongein Inaba) - Lynched Day 3
6. FishFishRevolution (Sakuya Izayoi) - Lynched Day 1
11. DiscoBobbyParanoia (Marisa Kirisame) - Killed Night 2
13. rioting (Yuyuko Saigyouji) - Eliminated Day 1
15. PsYcHoZeRoSk8eR (Reimu Hakurei) - Lynched Day 2
16. StoicRoivaS (Youmu Konpaku) - Killed Night 2
17. thunderstrike687 (Yuka Kazami) - Removed Night 2
18. Stella! (Suika Ibuki) - Eliminated Day 2

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

sertman - alextp1651
flawofhumanity - redrumfortherich
fojar - this is fojar
fictionjunction - fikshonjunkshon
x3mamimi - x3mamimi
fishfishrevolution - insanelikeafish
jwcgator - jwcgator2
darkmanticorex2 - Darkmanticorex2
kefit - kefit42
roundbox - tehroundbox
discobobbyparanoia - dbptwg
pntballa18 - merlonifan28
rioting - xriotingx
talisman - stressreliefball
psychozerosk8er - psychozerosk8er
stoicroivas - stoicroivas
thunderstrike687 - thunderstrike687
stella! - egnigem cenia
jurseyrider734 - im jurs
Omeganitros - Omeganoxim

[talisman]

everyone should totally vote to guard me because I'm selfish like that.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

GREENS GET PMS LOL

ps caps filter

[flawofhumanity]

Originally Posted by DiscoBobbyPARANOiA

GREENS GET PMS LOL

ps caps filter

Who knew!?

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Okay, Night 1 Start! 1:43 AM by my clock. You have 24 hours to get me all the information I want from you.

And yes, you morons, greens got PMs too. I never do otherwise as a host.

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Oh, and please send all PMs to this account, Kilga's Inbox is 91% full.

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

ARGH****

PEOPLE NEED TO LEARN HOW TO READ THREADS

Even though I went over this in the last thread I'll do it AGAIN because you're all stupid.

If someone is operating illegally, this means that I cannot find out that someone else knows who they are. For example, let's say Kilga is Role X, an illegal role. Kilga tells MishaTheAngel that he is role X. Misha comes to me and says "Hey I know that Kilga is Role X". I then immediately remove Kilga from the game.

Is that clear?

You're welcome to tell anyone you want what you are (or just make some **** up because honestly who'll know the difference?) as long as you're aware of the risk you're running.

[StoicRoivaS]

To clarify, your PM will say your role is illegal, and otherwise it isn't. Humans are not "illegal" and no you cannot exactly "guess" people to death. Typically you would have to tell the host either the exact name of the role, or a very accurate description of what the role does, thusly making guessing nearly impossible. Also, it isn't a "bad" thing to tell someone your illegal role. Kilga will not be upset with you, I will not be upset with you. This isn't a taboo issue, this is a game mechanic, essentially a downside to the role. The purpose is to prevent the role from being able to come out publicly and to also to make trusting others with info more difficult. Hopefully that clears it up a bit more.

[FictionJunction]

brb playing Shoot The Bullet

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Yeah I honestly don't care one way or the other if you tell someone your role and it's an illegal operation one. The function serves purely as a power limiter, and even then it may do a bad job of it.

[FictionJunction]

We're all underage, thus illegal.

[Stella!]

I'm not. hehehehe

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Originally Posted by FictionJunction

We're all underage, thus illegal.

Don't give me that bull****, you're over 500 years old.

[FictionJunction]

No, FFR said that that's an invalid age.

[Kefit]

I'm underage.

Reimu and Marisa too maybe (and maybe Sakuya) but they get to be teenagers which makes the only people who actually care crazy conservative crackers.

Everyone else is like 423762372881 years old.

Anyway, I believe that the strongest use of the lottery guard at this moment is to simply have everyone pick themselves. If everyone has a single guard choice assigned to them, then the wolves have a 5% chance of hitting a guarded player (regardless of whom they choose), and negating their pick. The wolves will probably assume that lottery guard choices will pile up on stronger players, and thus avoid those players; this means that every lottery guard pick on a player that the wolves will avoid is a wasted pick, and thus lowers the chance of a successful guarding happening during the night. Thus, the highest chance of a successful guard occurs when the lottery picks are spread out amongst the players, rather than concentrated on obvious picks.

And the easiest way to spread out these picks is to simply have everyone select themselves. It is what I intend to do tonight, unless someone can give a good argument against this line of thought.

Of course, this means that I am valuing a successful guard pick over the life of a potentially strong player. Indeed, I believe that any additional play time the humans get from a successful guarding (as the consequence of that is a wasted wolfing and End of Game (EoG) for the wolves being pushed back) is worth more than the possible contribution of any specific player. History has shown that any player, no matter how esteemed and supposedly brilliant, can really suck hard-core in any given game. I've done it before, and so has everyone else. More time for the humans to figure things out is more likely to help us out than slight chance of a brilliant contribution from a specific player.

Things might change in the future, when we have more info to go on (seerings, psychicings, wolf killings, lynchings, long-ass poorly constructed posts, godknowswhatelseinthisgameofanythingevercouldbeinit). For now, I see nothing better to do.

Also, this game is going to require people to actually THINK FOR THEMSELVES. Anyone that comes out as any role could easily be a wolf, and no one will be able to raise an objection to it (remember, there could be two seers!). Alliances will be difficult to form, and finding anyone you can trust absolutely is going to be nigh impossible. So I implore you all - think for yourself, and don't just blindly follow the will of whatever leaders might appear.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Needs to be said:

If you're an illegal role and you come out to someone randomly because you half-ass trust them, I'm going to slap the shit out of you when you get killed.

[StoicRoivaS]

Unless I'm sorrily mistaken, where we place our guard votes doesn't mean jack if you're assuming random picking (i.e. no logic behind kills). If we stack the votes, there's a 1/20 chance that person gets picked to be killed, if we spread the votes, there's less of a chance the right guard vote is picked, and more of a chance to hit a "guarded" person. I'm pretty sure it balances out either way when you take the bob-is-a-better-player-and-thusly-more-likely-to-be-wolfed factor out of it.

[StoicRoivaS]

Yes it's not 1/20, yes the wolves wouldn't vote to guard a human, etc, etc, etc. The point still stands I believe. Bed time now, we can discuss this more tomorrow if someone has compelling evidence one way or the other. I personally advocate using your best guess and doing what you think is right. If you have a reason to pick someone, do it. If you're unlikely to be attacked and haven't done anything to get attacked, don't pick yourself. If you're mid to upper-tiered and human, pick yourself. And so on.

[StoicRoivaS]

Last post, then bed, promise.

Odds are the same. Here's the brief run-through.

Case 1: Everyone guard themselves.
Odds of a guard are:
(chance person A is attacked) * (chance person A's guard vote is picked)
+
(chance person B is attacked) * (chance person B's guard vote is picked)
+
(chance person C is attacked) * (chance person C's guard vote is picked)
+
...

Which works out to be:
(1/16) * (1/20) + (1/16) * (1/20) + (1/16) * (1/20) + (1/16) * (1/20) +...
16 times (the number of ways this could happen, i.e. # of humans)

yielding: (1/16) * (1/20) * 16 = (1/20) total odds

Case 2: Everyone guard person A.
Odds of a guard are:
(chance person A is attacked) * (chance person A's guard vote is picked)

Which works out to be:
(1/16) * (16/20) * 1
(only one way for this to happen)

yielding: (1/16) * (16/20) = (1/20) total odds

So, assuming random kills (human only kills) odds are the same. But if we use our best intuition, we can probably hedge these down a lot.