TWG 194 - Game Thread

[Hakulyte]

If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

Most likely, otherwise it throws the setup into question.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

From your perspective, meaning if Haku=Town is a requirement

Then DBP being scum would necessitate an intentional scum nokill last night*



*pending one thing which remains to be seen

[MixMasterLar]

DBP i need you to link me that D0 soft please

[leetic]

4T is 27% vs. 16% for 2T. Not too significant a difference on its own, but compounded by the three roleblockers in the latter scenario. Four Ts with three distinct PRs is a normal setup.

[MixMasterLar]

Math's my weakest subject

I could use a calculater and google formulas and probably figure it out, but I won't.

DBP's being scum doesn't contradict the known set up and thats all I need to know in regards to rather or not he needs to be considered. Imma be pissed if he's wolf tho because for most of the game he was strongest townread

[Bolth mannn]

Alright well my head was originally at the fact that dbp would have had to make an obscene risk as scum to claim before knowing there was another roleblocker, but I just realised scum team have a cop so lol

[MixMasterLar]

Like my gut doesn't believe he's a fake.

[Bolth mannn]

I don’t think we should be looking at statistical probabilities as a method to solve the setup, cause realistically both of those setups are possible

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Bolth mannn

I don’t think we should be looking at statistical probabilities as a method to solve the setup, cause realistically both of those setups are possible

Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?

[Bolth mannn]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?

Yea I suppose, I mean math isn’t really my thing either, but I wouldn’t decide a vote based on something being more mathematically likely in any case, unless it was like obscenely ridiculous odds

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?

No because you're not considering the actual statistical distribution of setups in the entire game. What's the standard deviation? It might be the case that TTTT is the "mean" set of T rolls, but even though the literal probability of TT is off by 25x, that 25x difference doesn't mean anything until you do a more comprehensive analysis and contextualize it against the other T-rolls. For example, TT is more likely than TTTTTTT and TTTTTT. So yeah, TTTT is more likely than TT but not in a meaningful way-- it's still like the 3rd-4th most likely outcome if you roll the entire setup

you can prove this with Monte-Carlo simulation if you want to

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

No because you're not considering the actual statistical distribution of setups in the entire game. What's the standard deviation? It might be the case that TTTT is the "mean" set of T rolls, but even though the literal probability of TT is off by 25x, that 25x difference doesn't mean anything until you do a more comprehensive analysis and contextualize it against the other T-rolls. For example, TT is more likely than TTTTTTT and TTTTTT. So yeah, TTTT is more likely than TT but not in a meaningful way-- it's still like the 3rd-4th most likely outcome if you roll the entire setup

you can prove this with Monte-Carlo simulation if you want to

I mean, you're not wrong with this but it's irrelevant because I'm not focusing on just the TT vs TTTT. The more important change is BBB vs just B.

That's why I calculated probability for the two likeliest setups given the existing claims, in full, instead of just comparing TTTT/TT or BBB/B.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I mean, you're not wrong with this but it's irrelevant because I'm not focusing on just the TT vs TTTT. The more important change is BBB vs just B.

That's why I calculated probability for the two likeliest setups given the existing claims, in full, instead of just comparing TTTT/TT or BBB/B.

Yeah, all other non-T roles have the same 10% chance. AAB is the same as VCB is the same as BBB. The number of T slots is the only significant factor--- the other slots are uniformly 10% for each one

[ShadoWolfe]

@DBP if you're town, then yesterday must've been somewhat illuminating for you, no?

being in the center of that clusterfuck, what were you thinking about the people commenting on your slot and did anyone stick out to you as having a particular agenda?

[Bolth mannn]

Depending on whatever the soft is, I’m gonna choose to believe both MML and dbp or I’m gonna probably vote dbp

[leetic]

It wouldn't have really been that big a risk for DBP to claim. DBP was near insta twice and the thread climate was very much against him. I've seen scum make last ditch claims like that all the time, even though they usually aren't successful.

[Hakulyte]

Looks like we're approaching the leap of faith lottery game where DBP/MML were both town and all the outsiders have the entire wolf team.

[Hakulyte]

Bolth hard claim please.

[Bolth mannn]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Bolth hard claim please.

I did earlier

VT