01-26-2007, 11:32 AM | #81 |
FFR Player
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
I wouldn't mind a tentative/best case game plan, say, a pawn comes only after they have 2 red names to bring with them. Over the course of 3-4 days (hopefully) this sacrifices 2 , possibly kamikaze, greens for 4 red names (out of 2 millers and 4 wolves). We lose 2 "humans" but we still have 2 living seers to peg the last two. Suggestions and or complaints?
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01-26-2007, 12:15 PM | #82 | |
FFR Player
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
See, the throwing out the "sacrifice" is exactly the reason why I don't want to try this beyond Day 1.
Scenario 1: We have two confirmed humans. The seers have contact, can work together, and form a huge alliance. Huge gain in chance of human victory. Scenario 2: The danger iggy warns about. One human comes forward, and is dead meat for the wolves. Surprise, the wolves are going to kill a human anyway. That does not change the fact that that human may be a kamikaze, and remember, seer picks occur after wolf picks during the night; the seer may never get a report if a human is killed. If we only get one human, the plan goes null and we work with two human alliances behind-the-scenes. Scenario 3: No humans come forward. We lose nothing, and we potentially have nabbed two wolves. Honestly, the only disadvantage I see is losing one confirmed human, which we're going to have tons of in the following days. And, who's to say that confirmed human isn't a kamikaze? I still say we go for it. Note that I don't advocate this plan after Day 1. If this doesn't work today, we'll have to let alliances work on their own, as separate camps.
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01-26-2007, 03:40 PM | #83 | ||
Admiral in the Red Army
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
wow nforcer
You're bending logic to your whim. Yes, wolves are stabbing in the dark every night and yes they will definitely kill a human every night. However, you make it sound as though they're only having a chance of killing a kamikaze if they kill a seer's green puppet. A wolf has no greater chance to kill a kamikaze than anything else, EXCEPT if they seer a blue and decide to attack that blue. Quote:
Actually, it would be 2/10 or 1/5 for the wolf kill, due to there having been another lynch (assuming human because... well duh, it's statistically most likely to happen). And 2/9 for the seer's (next night, that is... last night was 2/10 or 1/5), because the seer wouldn't seer themself. Can someone who is especially good with statistics run the probability of each scenario nforcer just listed as well. I'd do it, but I'm afraid I was never the best at stats and I don't remember a lot of the rules. oh ps Quote:
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01-26-2007, 03:57 PM | #84 | |
FFR Veteran
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
Somewhere back in this thread the chances of seering a green human is 53%. So the chances of both of the seers finding a green is between 25-30%. (Which I stated before)
Chances of finding a red is 40% so the chances of both seers getting a red is lower than finding two greens. (But maybe by only 10-15%) The other 50% of the time or so you've got a split between finding a red and green. Quote:
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01-26-2007, 04:20 PM | #85 |
The Worst
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
it's a safety vote. i'm gonna be active, but probably not when all the voting happens, i'll be at my fiance's, so i wanted a backup just in case.
you seem really human to me, so i'll probably change it but i dont know who to yet.
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01-26-2007, 04:25 PM | #86 |
FFR Simfile Author
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
On second thought, Iggy's plan does seem like it's rather credible.
Looking from the wolves' perspective, they're most likely relying on their seer's pick for the night for kills. If they see a green, they're most likely hitting that person. It would only make sense. And if they're hitting what their seer sees as green, it's either a human, or a red miller. So let's say that our seers don't find some common ground till night 3 or 4 or 5 even, they'll both at least have notes to compare with each other, to get an alliance together. The only snag in this plan is if the wolves do decide to get risky, which seems rather dangerous from a day 3 on perspective (assuming a wolf has already been lynched by day 3.) If they're hitting blues regardless of the risk, by day 4 or 5 one, or both, of our seers could be gone; possibly without ever having found some common ground. That'd suck a lot. But overall, this plan is clearly the safer play. I'm all for taking risks that could lead to big pay-offs, but Iggy's plan is pretty solid, I gotta admit that I'm thinking it really may bet the better play here.
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01-26-2007, 04:44 PM | #87 | |
FFR Veteran
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
Quote:
I dare the wolves to try to fake a hidden seer alliance strategy. That would be so funny because not only would they get slaughtered but they would be doing a lot of dirty work for us too. I would explain how this would happen, but I'd rather see tham try it and fail rather than telling them exactly how badly faking would be. |
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01-26-2007, 04:46 PM | #88 |
auauauau
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
I, too, see Iggy's point, as well as blah's. I usually love taking chances, but not in a Werewolf Game.
Last time I took a chance was when I was the seer (but, in a twist, I could only use my power up to two or three times) in Kilga's Galaxy Angel game, and I thought to myself, "You know, with only a few chances to use my power, my alliance-buidling is limited. Oh, I know! I'll just contact someone in the game right away with a seer check, on Night 1, and tell them I'm the seer if I think they're behaving okay! Then I'll already have an alliance going!" My logic was that I had a better chance of revealing myself to a human than a wolf, which was true, but then evilbutterfly ended up being a Wolf. ;_; Anyways, I myself would prefer hidden alliances over all this mumbo jumbo. I mean, jeez, aside from the chances of something going awry, it's also more interesting when the game has more challenge to it. When nforcer's plan would remove a lot of. Er, not that I'm against beneficial plans or anything. But, you know... |
01-26-2007, 04:47 PM | #89 |
auauauau
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
*without a seer check
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01-26-2007, 05:16 PM | #90 |
FFR Player
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
Damn I missed a lot. I just skimmed through the thread; I'm going to think about it, reread some parts and get some posts in now that I have time this weekend.
Quick 2cents: Right now I think a hidden alliance is smarter than a public one, because obviously anything posted in the thread can be read by the wolves too. Seers should stay anonymous, kamikaze too.
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01-26-2007, 07:20 PM | #91 |
Gᴇᴛ ᴀ ɢʀɪᴘ ᴜ ɴᴇʀᴅ
Join Date: Feb 2005
Age: 33
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
I believe the seers/kamis should reveal themselves late in the game when a "good" hidden alliance is formed.
I also thought up a "worst case scenario" with something of the matter as well. Regarding false seers. A wolf posing as a seer could obviously start an alliance with a single human seer, leaving out the second. Obviously they would keep the wolves and everyone else safe, but the only way to deflect this is to have each seer give a one-time check on eachother just to make sure that they're both green (seeing as when a seer identifies a seer it just comes back as HUMAN). Yeah, you probably all realize this and such, but I just wanted to point something relevant out. Seers/kamis, keep yourself hidden until a stable alliance has been formed. For now, I'm going to go play some WarioWare for Wii. |
01-26-2007, 07:31 PM | #92 |
Super Scooter Happy
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
Uh, Stable isn't playing this game.
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01-26-2007, 08:47 PM | #93 | |
FFR Player
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
Of course I'm going to try to defend my own strategy, Afro. People like iggy are too hard-headed to even consider it.
Whatever, guys. A lot of you don't see the advantages. I only want this tried for Day 1, but apparently we're too "scared" to give it a shot. This game is going to be pretty stale because we're afraid to try something. The way things are looking, this isn't going to happen. Tokzic seems to be the only one that agrees it's a good idea. I wish you'd all come up with something better, but whatever.
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01-26-2007, 10:33 PM | #94 | |||
Admiral in the Red Army
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
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As for hardheadedness: Why can't you just say "ok yeah my plan has a pretty good advantage, but the low probability of it happening makes it not worth actually using?" I suggested a plan back on page one ("if 2 or more are seer'd red, they should be announced in the thread"). Notice how I dropped it totally when I realized how unlikely it would be for the plan to actually go through successfully (that is to say that there being two red millers throws it off so much that it'd only really have a really strong advantage if the seer sees probably 3 or 4 or more "reds")? Quote:
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EDIT: rofl I typed so much... probably unnecessary haha EDIT*2: Didn't capitalize something correctly. And it was the first word too...
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01-26-2007, 10:36 PM | #95 |
FFR Player
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
I really don't see why everyone's against nforcer's plan, but if there's not full support, it'll probably backfire, so kk let's go with the plan that we'd go with assuming we missed with nforcer's yes excellent idea sure whatever
I will not be around whatsoever tomorrow due to snowboarding and have absolutely no time to read the thread thoroughly right now, so I'm going to throw a random vote for inactivity and not-getting-phantomed on rioting. Nothing personal.
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Last edited by Tokzic: Today at 11:59 PM. Reason: wait what |
01-26-2007, 11:12 PM | #96 | |
Admiral in the Red Army
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
hey votes to ensure you don't get a phantom later are hip these days, right?
I'm gonna go with roundbox. Quote:
And don't even think about giving me **** for calling a new player on something. Go take a look at last game.
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01-27-2007, 02:57 AM | #97 | |||
FFR Veteran
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
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And don't you dare say I'm too scared to do anything. If the benefits were high enough I would do anything. And I've proven that many times before. I'm one of the most liberal, aggressive player here, but I'm not willing to take risks if there are easier ways to achieve the same goal. Quote:
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01-27-2007, 11:32 AM | #98 |
FFR Player
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
sorry i haven't been aroudn tremendously, I promise its jstu during the weekends , and otherwise i'm aroudn a ton more, plus i'm always available on AIM, as i've spoken to several people already through it... I nkow some of you may find this a stupid reason but i'm voting afrobean because he's being way too logical and not nearly passionate or angry enough from the enraged human i know and love. Something's different about it, and maybe someone else can tell me if i'm crazy
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01-27-2007, 11:37 AM | #99 |
Admiral in the Red Army
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
blah, are you drunk?
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01-27-2007, 01:49 PM | #100 |
Gᴇᴛ ᴀ ɢʀɪᴘ ᴜ ɴᴇʀᴅ
Join Date: Feb 2005
Age: 33
Posts: 2,025
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Re: TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!
Afro, disregard my entire post. I'm retarded and tried to come up with a "lol, plan" post so I wouldn't be the one quiet guy sitting in the corner with nothing to say.
I think nforcer has a good idea and more people should 'gree to it. His plan would easily come up with a green victory, but we seriously need to actually TRY it, otherwise, the game could quickly fall into the hands of the wolves. Oh yeah, and afrobean. I honestly have no idea to vote for at this point in game, and I'm just voting for you because you, well, voted for me. LOL, 100th post get? Last edited by roundbox; 01-27-2007 at 04:09 PM.. |
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