TWG XLl: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, WOLF LYNCHES YOU!

[blahblah18]

why isn't all the convo about omg blah's playing?
I'm thinking of an absolute we win strat, you know how these things happen, just gimme my time

[nforcer06164]

Let me know what you think of my idea, blah; I'd really appreciate your input on this. And OH MY GOD BLAH'S BACK.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

http://home.comcast.net/~23325859280...BUDDY_LIST.blt

Right click, save as. Load with aim by clicking

My Aim > Load Buddy List...

Or with the gay new version... you can't. Well, you can but it involves a plugin. If you're using the new version and you want to use my buddylist, IM me or something....

This won't overwrite your list at all, it'll just add a new category with everyone's aims in sign-up order. That is all.

Also worth noting, it has each players' forum name as contact comment, in case you get confused.

[nforcer06164]

You're a god, DBP. If it works, anyway.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Seers don't come out.

Pawns of seers don't come out.

If a seer finds a wolf, likely he would have found maybe 1 or 2 other humans that he can trust. Seers should just work within their group to get wolves lynched. It doesn't have to be this huge stage performance of a god arising from the night and saying, "We have wolf, let's skin him!!!" A covert plan should do fine. Having 3 votes to sway any place you want works just as well as announcing it to the thread and having your credibility challenged, then voting on whether or not you're true, then voting on your pick."

No seer should come out.

No seer pawns should come out.

Be sneaky for crying out loud. You can trust your green picks are humans so the only chance you take on revealing yourself to them is having your pawn reveal who you are without him knowing it.

@nforcer: stop sucking up to people XD. This is WAR!!

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

hay guys

With 2 seers and no guardian, the wolves are free to come out as a seer if they want. Both of the real seers would just have to go "oh he might be the other seer" and the only remedy to this would be both seers coming out which probably is a bad idea (and if the seer who came out first is legit, then the second one would come out to verify there isn't a "third" seer and even then both seers are as good as dead.

seers are stuck being unable to come out, but it may be an ok idea to sacrifice both seers if multiple wolves have been seer'd.

A portion) If someone comes out as a seer, I'm immediately pushing for their lynch because no seer should be so desparate to come out publically unless:

B portion) I can only see this if the seer's first two picks are red. Even then, IMO, I wouldn't chance it. I would take the chance of getting wolfed and try to get more people on my side then having them work with me on their votes to lynch the red picks behind the scenes style.

[JurseyRider734]

You killed my aim.

Oh well.

[talisman]

Originally Posted by Iggy

That being said, the seers need to adopt an unofficial way of making sure they don't overlap too much in their choices.

It seems like early on it might be more beneficial for the seers' choices to overlap.

BUT if you wanted to ensure that they didn't overlap, you could say "ok seers, seer the person immediately below you on the signup list. if you're last, seer number one."

[nforcer06164]

iggy, did you not read the advantages of my plan? Yeah, staying secretive might be all well and good, but I think you forgot that we have a wolf seer that can easily sway a lynch as well as a real seer. Keeping seered humans secret only provides sanctuary for the wolf seer and makes his role much more powerful.

iggy, I was looking for counterpoints. You do realize that all you said is "lol we can get by without doing anything," right? You did not point out any problems with my plan, and if you can't, I'd say you're just trying to suffocate progress. I'm not saying my plan is flawless, but my god, substantiate yourself.

Oh, and what the hell is this, taking your chances getting wolfed and working behind the scenes to get lynches? Are you stupid? TAKING A CHANCE?! If I was a seer that had found two wolves, I wouldn't even think twice about revealing myself and my information. My death would easily have value equal to that of two wolves, maybe less.

You've secured spot #1 on suspicions.

[StoicRoivaS]

Originally Posted by talisman

only time anyone comes out on the thread to say something is if a red has been seered. and the person who comes out is a green that the seer has seered, not the seer themselves. this person would then be sacrificing themselves for the (initially) 60% chance of getting a wolf (3/5). this would all be assuming that the green trusted the seer as a genuine seer.

Gotta agree with talisman most so far here. We have a HUGE benefit in being able to trust our "human" seer picks 100%. I think our safest and best course of action is to have the seer-pawns come forward only when they have a red to go with them. Until then the seers are spending N1 and N2 hopefully hitting one red and one green, or two reds.

Best to watch that tone Iggy, I'm wanting to agree with nforcer here.

[nforcer06164]

I want to clarify that in my plan back on page 1, when I mention a seer coming out, I'm talking about a seer's human front. A seer should only come out in Afro's scenario, where muliple wolves have been found and no human fronts are available.

I also want talk about what Talisman has said, now that it's getting attention. We can trust two seers as the genuine seers if we can get two human fronts in the thread, because a third, independent front would only spell death for a wolf the next day.

[talisman]

Originally Posted by nforcer

I think you forgot that we have a wolf seer that can easily sway a lynch as well as a real seer.

Any wolf, not just the wolf seer, could theoretically sway a lynch. The powers of the wolf seer are essentially to find blues... which gives the wolf seer no extra advantage in terms of interaction with humans. A wolf seer can't be like "I can prove I'm a real seer, I saw X and they came back blue." because real seers only receive human or not human. A wolf seer could say "I saw X and they came back human" but so could any wolf. Kind of a small point, I know, but it warrants clarification.

About people coming out and your idea: it could work, but there's a fair amount of scenarios (that you've mentioned already) where it might not. I'd have to do math to figure out the odds, and I hate math. Instinctually, it seems to me like in this game that having two less people to choose from isn't that huge of an advantage on day one (two less people that the wolves have to choose from as well). If there's a seen red involved, then there's a significantly greater advantage to having the seen green sacrifice himself/herself.

[xObserveRx]

Alright, just for clarification, going back to a plan where both seers see the same person (which is what I'm thinking is maybe the best option at an early part of the game), how would a red miller situation (or blue if you wanna do that too. However a blue miller situation is much easier to see) play out in the immediate run?

Just curious to see if I'm the only person worried about this.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Nforcer I wasn't even talking about your agenda. Your ability to contribute new thoughts is very poor at best and after reading your long drawn out post, you restate so many obvious TWG basics that there are hardly any new thoughts at all.

I mean your own rant can be restated as "Have seer pawns come out instead of seers on day1 to make sure wolf seer doesn't pull a fake." Everything else I found as not worth reading.

I, for one, do not think that the wolf seer, a key member of the red team, will even attempt to publically reveal himself or do anything to stick his neck out in order to get into the trust of the thread. He risks the chance of being lynched if called on it and only gains minor trust from the thread since people will doubt any public figurehead coming out.

If the seer teams work by themselves, they will essentially be knocking out more players by just sheer luck. And your thought about the wolf team controling the lynch doesn't merit any risk. EVERY game the wolves can control the lynch and yet, they are always too afraid to try anything. So I doubt this game will be any different just because now they can confirm that they are a seer.

You also have to think about it from a seer's point of view: He can tell all greens in his party who he is seering and the reds that he has come up with. If the seer died, the alliance would still be together and the reds that were seered wouldn't be lost. Having someone come out and kill themselves (as a confirmed human) for a 60% chance of getting a wolf is not worth it. I would just have my pawns watch the lynch and vote to make sure the red targets get majority votes. You can't tell if they're actually a wolf or not anyways so having someone tell you that they were seered red still won't give the thread comfort in getting a wolf. They will still think that there could be 4 wolves out there. But by having this pawn come out we do know that we lost a seered human. That is not worth the risk.

I guess if I was a seer, I would actually use my ability right instead of relying on the crutch of the public thread to do my dirty work. But maybe that's just me.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by talisman

A wolf seer can't be like "I can prove I'm a real seer, I saw X and they came back blue." because real seers only receive human or not human.

Which is exactly how I trapped observer when he was a wolf seer XD.

[StoicRoivaS]

Another thing to consider while thinking seer strats through: would the wolves even attack a public (green) seer pawn should they come out? If they come out they're already going to bring a red name with them, so there's no possibility in stopping that. What else would the wolves gain? It seems to me that pegging the 2 seers in this game is their top priority. Why would they waste a kill on someone who's extremely likely to be green? I say extremely likely here because if a seer hits a "non-human" that "non-human" should tell them their role if they were blue, thusly the blue wouldn't be wise to come out as a public seer pawn. So in 99% of cases, the public seer pawn would be green. If I were a wolf I don't think I'd chose a 99% green as my target in a game with 2 seers. Just a thought.

[xObserveRx]

After reading through the original game plan again, it seems to me that if you're a red miller and you get seered, it's basically your word vs. the alliance's. So in other words, you're screwed.

I do see the very small benefit this has for the humans (buys a night), but you gotta take into account the fact that you have double the chance of being seer'd by a human seer each night which would result in your demise.

So I guess the best bet for these people (who have no idea who they are), is to avoid being seer'd, which when following what's being planned (to seer people randomly each night), is null.

So you get seer'd as not human, and the humans lynch you, only aiding the wolves even more. The humans have just gotten a lose/lose situation. Combine this with the fact that blue millers (may) cause even more human confusion, getting seer'd as not human is well... bad.

Maybe I'm missing the big picture here. Maybe there's a way that this role really DOES benefit the humans for sure. I know there's the kamikaze role to help the humans much more than this role does. Does that really just turn this role into an unlucky role of the die?

[nforcer06164]

Hey iggy, nice "**** you" post you threw out there. I don't even think you understood the main part of my plan: to get the seers in contact. It's better to have one large human alliance than two little ones.

Your "OMG don't come out" post was an indirect response to my plan; any fool can see that. And I have poor new ideas? What was your idea, hmmm? "DURHURHUR let's shut up and do nothing" is not a good idea. The "basics" I used, as you put it, give the plan its validity. You're not going any deeper, so who the hell are you to say that?

And Stoic is right. Why kill a confirmed human when you can go for one of the two seers? That's another reason why my proposed idea will only be effective on Day 1. And if the wolves take down a confirmed human, so what? Better a confirmed human that got our seers together than one of the seers, right? The fact that you're missing all of this is rather appalling.

God I wish I could vote right now.

[Tokzic]

wait what night talking

sweet

Originally Posted by xObserveRx

red miller situation

Just curious to see if I'm the only person worried about this.

WHY HAS NOBODY ELSE EVEN MENTIONED THIS YET

I was thinking about this as I was reading the thread, and I'm assuming that the red millers basically just die when they're seered? There's no other way to go about it, really. Yes, it's a huge setback, and yes, it's annoying, but there's nothing really better to be done about it.

that would also explain why no one has mentioned it

anyway

Nforcer's plan is by far the best one posted - we just have to hope that we get two humans. The problem is that there is a very very good chance that that will not happen, and if it doesn't first night, there is a not-favourable chance one of our seers will get deaded. Also, if we only get one human, they will come out and probably be a really good wolf target because it will prevent the seer alliance from forming. Then again, is this plan worth repeating over more than one day?

Either way, for the potential benefit and no loss for attempt, let's do it.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Upon rereading and trying to understand what everyone is trying to propose as the best strategy I have come to the conclusion that everyone is saying different things.

IGGY: seers stay quiet in order build their alliance and push secretly for seered reds.

NFORCER and Stoic: Have both N1 pawns come forward to set up a bigger alliance to work together (thus keeping wolf seer away from being alliance head)

TALISMAN: same as above but only occurs when a red is seered (could happen at anytime)

I did not realize that that was the ultimate goal of this, I thought this was some dumb plan to sacriface someone for a red seering. Which I still think is dumb. But this other plan is a little more logical. (sorry for missing that)

There is a pretty much a 50-50 chance of a seer seering a green or blue. (4 greens + 2 blue millers that come up green + 2 blues / 15 possibilities: 53%) Which means about 20%-30% chance that both seers will find someone that they can both use to go through with this plan.

The most likely senario is that one seer will get green/blue and the other will get a red. Which means one seer comes out (via pawn) and that guy just gets mangled because no one else will step forward. And like someone else said wolf seer may try to get in if he wants to risk it. (But I doubt this will happen.)

Conclusion: Now that I've looked at what everyone has been saying, it is a better idea than what I was thinking it was but I still advocate hidden alliances because the only risk you run into is dumb pawns giving out info. You have to realize that if there's 1 overlap, the overlaped person will hook the two together. And damage control is maintained by not sharing the names of the seers.