TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

If PI wasn't Julian, I think his move would have little to no justification.

They wanted to out the PR that was their justification and they so much as said it. I don't understand where you're coming from saying that you thought he knew Julian was the PI

[TWG Apollo]

That is to say I can't get in the same headspace where that thought would've crossed my mind

[TWG Julian]

molly iso

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

I wouldn't mind nibbling on some of y'all. People keep gifting me stale bread for some reason and I'm kinda sick of it.

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

I still have several dozen loaves of bread from last Christmas that I don't want going to waste. I feel obligated to finish it off first before getting any more food.

If anyone needs bread, please feel free to take some.

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

I have some bread you can use.

possible reasoning for PR suspicion? bread talk = breadcrumbing?

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

Of course, there are certain exceptions, like the situation with me answering for Tank. It was a lapse in my judgement; I should have put more thought into what is best for town before I post. I had immediately regretted the post a few moments after posting it; I'm glad that Phil called me out on it in particular.

she likes phil here, and i noticed she replied to him more so than other players in the early game too

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

Some reads:
-Del: initially voted due to inactivity, but I'm currently keeping my vote there due to both his initial posts and also his recent activity within these past few hours.
-Phil: I haven't seen any wolfy and his many interactions with others seem to be moving town in some (hopefully good) direction.
-Julian: I don't mind his initial post that took a critical look at the posts I had made. However, I'm not sure what exactly to make of the back-and-forth flip-flopping regarding the degree to which he thought I was wolf. I know it's good to keep an open mind and to change your beliefs accordingly based on nee information, but it seemed a little *too* easy for his degree of belief to be swayed.
Chief: I feel like they aren't melding and being cooperative with everyone else much and doesn't feel like towny behavior in general.
Maple: I have a tin-foil hat suspension that they are the aqui (the "argument" being that they want us to think "oh, they're doing an annoying gimmick so that the aqui would hate to have to deal with that").

early reads, likes phil as well

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

I didn't like Phil's post early on in this phase regarding having people list what they would have done as each PR and also the post about having the town blocked claim. I might make a more detailed post about this later.

here's what i was remembering about her not liking phil speculating about the PR stuff and being especially attuned to the blocker claim request. she never made the detailed post, unfortunately

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

Probably been said already but in the event that Dora flips as town for whatever reason and if it's the case that town blocker didn't target Boomer, then I think we can be sure that the town blocker did block the wolves. I only way that can't happen is if:
-Wolves didn't send in a kill. Unlikely unless wolves have some galaxy brain plan that involves not sending in a kill in order to have the blocker out themselves and their target so that the wolves end up finding a blue and also end up getting a non-wolf lynched in the event that the roleblocker didn't target a wolf
-Wolves roleblocked and sent in their kill on Del. I don't think this is the case though.

another possible post that could've gotten her PR hunted. she focuses a lot on the possibilities involving the blocker but not the doc. her saying "some galaxy brain plan that involves not sending in a kill in order to have the blocker out themselves and their target so that the wolves end up finding a blue" refers to her suspicions of phil doing that

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

Phil: Despite my saltiness towards him saying blocker should claim, town. However, if in the rare event that we somehow find out wolves did the galaxy brain move of not sending a kill last night to sow confusion, I think it might be worth looking at Phil more carefully.
Maple: In the case that Dora isn't aqui, I'm thinking that Maple might be. The earlier gimmick was so annoying as to give off the idea to town that it was so annoying that aqui wouldn't want to deal with it. Even if she found the gimmick annoying herself, she probably knew people would complain about it and thus would also have a valid reason to stop doing it. This might just be a tinfoil hat read.
Chief: Was reading as wolfy on d0. Still do: other than post 1367, most of his posts seem reactionary and/or don't do much to help solve the game.
Punchy: Been reading as town lately. I do like his long posts that seem to show that he is trying to dig deep to get some good reads. I might be misremembering, but I feel like he was the first to start putting together a case against Flurry this phase which I liked since prior to that, I feel like most of town was reading Flurry as solid town or at least town lean. I feel like wolves would try to stick to generic mainstream reads that everyone was already agreeing with.
Julian: Anyone that is wolf reading him because he was pushing for a Del lynch at EoD is dumb. However, I didn't like how you were somewhat flip-flopping regarding your read on me. I was honestly surprised that a single post that I made on d0 seemed to satisfy you (if TWG has taught me anything, it's that I'm not good at being convincing). I was thinking you might revisit the idea of my being wolf this phase, especially due to my absence, but you seemed to mostly be quiet on this. I still have a strong wolf-lean of you because of this.
Flurry: In my head, I've been flip-flopping in my read of Flurry throughout this phase. I want to look closer at Punchy's posts regarding Flurry and also iso Flurry later to get a better idea.
Eugene: Slight town lean.
Mathilda: Didn't really care for the lazy attitude on d0. And nothing strikes me as particularly towny from you this phase either. Might put as slight wolf lean for now...might change a tad if I have time to do an iso later.
Dora: Either aqui or wolf. The only way this isn't the case is doctor didn't protect cop which I don't think is the case.

later reads. i concede to phil that at this point she was reading him town and she didn't talk about him again after that.

however, both here and the post below this, she goes back to townreading eugene:

Originally Posted by TWG Molly

I did take a look at your most recent reads list and for the most part, the general trend is your reads on wolfiness correlate strongly with inactiveness. Like I mentioned in my earlier post, I feel like it's common to have at least one wolf that's fairly active. You've convinced me for now that it's probably not you. Do you think you can share your thoughts on this idea in general?

so i don't think eugene would be her block pick either



---




based on all this, her blocking targets would likely be flurry, mathilda, phil, or me. of those, the phil possibility has been with her longer, stemming from the whole getting the blocker to claim worries, while flurry is from an inability to read him and mathilda is a tone/activity read. phil and i seem like the most likely candidates

if she blocked me, that means the wolves either killed fauna (why? that's why i asked about PR cover as maybe they said something that made wolves think they were telling the truth) or double stacked on molly and left boomer unblocked (again, why? seemed obvious he was going to shoot molly, so even if they did want to let boomer's shot go through like mathilda suggests, why choose molly for the nightkill?)

if she blocked phil, however, things make some more sense, right?

[TWG Julian]

since i found these two posts of mine, i'll add em since they're relevant again:

Originally Posted by TWG Julian

phil seems pretty interested in getting PRs to claim. chrissy's post reminded me he pushed del to do it at eod, then during this phase he initiated the PR cover posts and also wanted at least the blocker to claim. not sure what to make of it

Originally Posted by TWG Julian

phil also only pushed del to claim despite the vote being tied between del and zucker at that point. why say "if you're around del" and not "if you're around del or zucker"?

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

I mean, I even called out that both Chief and Molly would flip town in the EoD.

What's your point ?

Haven't gotten there yet just thought this was funny because of the flip

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

They wanted to out the PR that was their justification and they so much as said it. I don't understand where you're coming from saying that you thought he knew Julian was the PI

PI not claiming until second to last phase is perfect play.
He breaks that play with making him claim sooner and if it's not Julian, Julian probably die here, flip town and the outed PI is useless.

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

PI not claiming until second to last phase is perfect play.
He breaks that play with making him claim sooner and if it's not Julian, Julian probably die here, flip town and the outed PI is useless.

Why would think Julian gets lynched over Cole or me or anyone else? I don't understand how you saying this makes it clear to me why you thought Maple's knew Julian was the PI

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

Why would think Julian gets lynched over Cole or me or anyone else? I don't understand how you saying this makes it clear to me why you thought Maple's knew Julian was the PI

Julian was likely to die in the world where he wasn't cleared.
Maple didn't knew Julian was PI because Maple said so.
Well, tbf, Julian would have just claimed PI and be fine. It would have just happened later.

[TWG Flurry]

tl;dr: I suffer from expecting perfect plays when they don't happen

[TWG Julian]

i'll give a more detailed reads list before the end of the phase for sure but here's a quick and dirty and intuition-based list that's subject to change (for example, cole is only strong town because i don't think he and phil are ever partners):

town: eugene, flurry, cole
leaning town: maple, rolf
the slightest of slightest town leans but basically null: agent s
null: fauna, apollo, tank
leaning wolf: cherry, punchy
wolf: phil

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Tank

i dislike it a bit
particularly bc i don't see rolf as an "info lynch" (not that thats my cuppa tea anyway)
tbh id like to know what Apollo thinks he'd learn from it
rest of rolf pop in fine tho tbh

He would help with Eugene and flurry. Like I mentioned though I would've been super sketched if a wagon developed on him.

[TWG Julian]

from my perspective if i didn't claim when maple softed then i wouldn't be believed when i hardclaimed should i be the main wagon today, and when i flipped PI then the next phase would very very likely be a maple lynch. seemed like a bad scene

[TWG Fauna]

Why are you leaning wolf cherry?

[TWG Apollo]

I don't understand how I can be null read by so many people

[TWG Julian]

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Why are you leaning wolf cherry?

100% gut read. nothing more. i'll be iso'ing with an open mind

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

I don't understand how I can be null read by so many people

You're like me kinda. You don't commit hard enough to reads and when you do, it's usually too late.

[TWG Julian]

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

I don't understand how I can be null read by so many people

i was leaning town on you before i believe but i want to reassess and not take anything for granted

[TWG Apollo]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

You're like me kinda. You don't commit hard enough to reads and when you do, it's usually too late.

Hard disagree

[TWG Fauna]

I've been trying to avoid it cause there are SO MANY PAGES but I don't think I'm going to be able to have strong opinions again unless I reread the whole thread with whats happened in mind.

Otherwise I'm gonna just be piggybacking, and I don't want to do that.

See you guys on the other side

[TWG Julian]

godspeed...